SPORTS CLUB STATS

Your team’s chances of making the playoffs

Holy capitalism Batman,
we’re in the Wall Street Journal

DC United Playoff Chances 2016

Did not play, playoff odds down 0.3 to 44.7%

34 points 7-13-9

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How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 9/18	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Wooden Spoon	100.0*	Average seed
DC United vs Orlando	+16.8-11.9-27.2		-0.7+0.2+1.5		+0.5-0.4-0.9
Red Bulls vs Impact	+1.3-0.3-3.8				+0.0-0.0-0.1
NYCFC vs Fire	+0.2+0.1-0.6		-0.3-0.0+0.8		+0.0+0.0-0.1
Toronto FC vs Union	+0.3-0.2-0.5				+0.0-0.0-0.1
Dynamo vs Timbers			+0.2-0.1-0.2
Whitecaps vs Rapids			+0.0*+0.0-0.1

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 9/25	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Wooden Spoon	100.0*	Average seed
DC United vs Crew	+14.3-11.1-23.6		-0.7-0.1+2.2		+0.5-0.3-0.9
Toronto FC vs DC United	-8.8+2.0+25.7		+0.4-0.3-0.7		-0.3+0.1+0.9
Revolution vs Sporting KC	-7.6+3.1+7.7				-0.2+0.1+0.2
Crew vs Revolution	+3.7+0.1-10.6		+0.2-0.2-0.3		+0.0+0.0-0.1
Toronto FC vs Orlando	+2.4-0.4-7.4				+0.1-0.0-0.2
Impact vs Earthquakes	-2.9+2.2+4.3				-0.1+0.1+0.1
Crew vs Fire	-0.6+0.9+0.4		-0.1-0.1+0.3		-0.0+0.1+0.0
Sounders vs Fire	+0.2+0.1-0.6		-0.3*+0.0+0.8		+0.0+0.0-0.1
Red Bulls vs Union	+0.3-0.2-0.4				+0.0-0.0-0.1
Dynamo vs NYCFC			+0.2-0.1-0.2

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well DC United finishes out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Supporters		Chance will finish regular season at seed										Wooden
TP		W	-	D	-	L	playoffs		Shield		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	Spoon		Count

49		5	-	0	-	0	In		No		0	2	26	62	10	0					No		102,380
47		4	-	1	-	0	100.0	%	No			0	3	46	43	7	0				No		439,947
46		4	-	0	-	1	99.8		No				1	33	53	14	0	0			No		655,467
45		3	-	2	-	0	98.0		No					12	49	36	2	0			No		722,205
44		3	-	1	-	1	94.4		No					5	41	49	6	0	0		No		2,037,248
43		3	-	0	-	2	81.2		No					1	25	55	18	1	0		No		1,368,617
		2	-	3	-	0	83.5		No					1	22	61	16	0	0		No		555,940
42		2	-	2	-	1	59.7		No					0	7	52	36	4	0	0	No		2,220,193
41		2	-	1	-	2	33.1		No						2	31	48	18	1	0	0.0	%	2,782,409
		1	-	4	-	0	41.1		No						2	39	48	10	0		No		202,532
40		2	-	0	-	3	9.8		No						0	10	41	44	6	0	0.0		1,068,180
		1	-	3	-	1	14.3		No						0	14	48	34	4	0	0.0		1,025,860
39		1	-	2	-	2	2.8		No							3	26	55	16	0	0.0		1,829,009
		0	-	5	-	0	3.6		No							4	31	52	13	0	0.0		28,476
38		1	-	1	-	3	0.3		No							0	8	54	36	1	0.4		1,350,024
		0	-	4	-	1	0.7		No							1	13	55	31	1	0.3		171,246
37		0	-	3	-	2	0.0		No							0	2	36	57	6	2.7		391,425
		1	-	0	-	4	0.0		No							0	1	34	59	6	2.7		352,540
36		0	-	2	-	3	Out		No								0	16	68	16	10.0		418,338
35		0	-	1	-	4	Out		No									5	64	30	23.3		213,249
34		0	-	0	-	5	Out		No									1	49	50	42.9		44,075

Total:							44.7	%	No		0	0	0	4	13	27	24	20	10	1	0.8	%	17,979,360

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 9/18	100.0*	Lottery seed
DC United vs Orlando	-1.2+0.9+2.0
Red Bulls vs Impact	-0.1+0.0+0.3
Whitecaps vs Rapids	+0.1-0.0-0.1
Toronto FC vs Union	-0.0+0.0+0.1
Earthquakes vs Sporting KC	+0.1-0.0-0.1
Dynamo vs Timbers	+0.1-0.0-0.1
NYCFC vs Fire	-0.0-0.0+0.1

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 9/25	100.0*	Lottery seed
DC United vs Crew	-1.1+0.8+1.9
Toronto FC vs DC United	+0.7-0.1-2.0
Revolution vs Sporting KC	+0.3-0.1-0.3
Crew vs Revolution	-0.1-0.0+0.3
Toronto FC vs Orlando	-0.1+0.0+0.3
Impact vs Earthquakes	+0.1-0.1-0.2
Earthquakes vs Real Salt Lake	+0.1-0.0-0.1
Red Bulls vs Union	-0.0+0.0+0.1
Dynamo vs NYCFC	+0.1-0.0-0.1
Crew vs Fire	+0.0-0.1-0.0
Galaxy vs Sounders	-0.0+0.0+0.1

What If

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W	-	D	-	L	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20

49		5	-	0	-	0		0		2	0	26	19	43	8	1	0	0
47		4	-	1	-	0				0		3	1	44	19	24	6	1	0	0
46		4	-	0	-	1						1	0	32	13	40	10	4	0	0	0
45		3	-	2	-	0							0	12	4	46	16	20	2	0	0
44		3	-	1	-	1								5	1	40	9	40	4	2	0	0
43		3	-	0	-	2								1	0	25	3	52	7	8	3	0	0	0
		2	-	3	-	0								1	0	22	3	58	6	7	3	0	0
42		2	-	2	-	1								0	0	7	0	52	6	18	14	3	0	0	0
41		2	-	1	-	2										2	0	31	2	15	29	17	4	0	0	0
		1	-	4	-	0										2	0	39	1	12	27	15	3	0	0
40		2	-	0	-	3										0		10	0	6	26	35	19	4	0	0
		1	-	3	-	1										0		14	0	6	26	33	16	3	0	0
39		1	-	2	-	2												3	0	1	11	32	35	15	2	0
		0	-	5	-	0												4	0	1	12	32	35	15	2	0
38		1	-	1	-	3												0	0	0	2	14	37	35	11	0
		0	-	4	-	1												1		0	2	16	38	33	10	0
37		0	-	3	-	2												0		0	0	3	21	43	29	3
		1	-	0	-	4												0		0	0	3	22	44	29	3
36		0	-	2	-	3															0	0	7	34	48	10
35		0	-	1	-	4																0	2	19	56	23
34		0	-	0	-	5																	0	8	49	43

Total:								0		0	0	0	0	4	1	12	2	25	2	6	11	12	11	8	4	1