Your team’s chances of making the playoffs

Sports Club Stats, which I have open
in like seven browser tabs always
-Katie Baker

Kansas City Royals Playoff Chances 1

Lost to Twins 3-5, playoff odds down 6.9 to 54.6%

5-2 .714

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How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Monday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Reg Season Champ	100.0*	Worst Team	100.0*	Average seed
Royals 3 Twins 5	-3.5		-1.4		+0.1		-0.3
Indians 4 Yankees 0	-0.4

If winner is:HomeAway
Tuesday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Reg Season Champ	100.0*	Worst Team	100.0*	Average seed
Royals vs Twins	+2.7-3.8		+0.8-1.1		-0.1+0.2		+0.2-0.4
Tigers vs Blue Jays	-0.3+0.3

What If

Chances based on how well the Royals finish out the regular season. Explain

									100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:					Chance in		Reg Season		Chance will finish regular season at seed															Worst
TW		W	-	L	playoffs		Champ		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	Team		Count

106	-160				In		Yes		100															No		346	*
105		100	-	55	In		99.5	%	100	0														No		209
104		99	-	56	In		Yes		100															No		403
103		98	-	57	In		99.1		100	0														No		634
102		97	-	58	In		98.5		99	0		0												No		1,036
101		96	-	59	In		96.9		99	1														No		1,731
100		95	-	60	In		95.1		98	2														No		2,440
99		94	-	61	In		91.6		96	4		0												No		3,702
98		93	-	62	In		87.6		95	5	0	0												No		5,541
97		92	-	63	In		80.2		92	7	0	1												No		7,847
96		91	-	64	In		71.5		87	12	0	1												No		10,640
95		90	-	65	In		60.4		81	16	1	2	0											No		14,108
94		89	-	66	In		46.9		72	23	1	3	0											No		18,193
93		88	-	67	In		33.4		62	30	3	5	0											No		23,288
92		87	-	68	100.0	%	21.1		50	37	5	8	0	0										No		28,670
91		86	-	69	100.0		11.2		38	42	9	11	1	0										No		33,899
90		85	-	70	99.9		4.4		25	43	15	15	2	0	0									No		39,980
89		84	-	71	99.6		1.3		14	40	22	19	4	0	0	0								No		45,684
88		83	-	72	98.5		0.2		7	33	28	22	9	1	0	0								No		50,465
87		82	-	73	95.5		0.0		3	23	33	22	15	4	0	0	0							No		54,054
86		81	-	74	88.2		0.0		1	13	34	18	22	10	2	0	0	0						No		56,877
85		80	-	75	73.5		No		0	6	31	12	25	19	6	1	0	0	0					No		58,039
84		79	-	76	52.7		No		0	2	24	6	21	27	15	4	1	0	0					No		57,963
83		78	-	77	31.3		No		0	1	17	2	12	26	26	13	3	0	0	0		0		No		56,592
82		77	-	78	15.4		No			0	11	0	4	17	29	25	11	3	0	0	0			No		53,359
81		76	-	79	7.1		No			0	6	0	1	7	20	30	24	10	2	0	0			No		49,541
80		75	-	80	2.9		No			0	3	0	0	2	9	23	31	22	8	1	0			No		44,577
79		74	-	81	1.2		No				1		0	0	3	11	26	31	20	6	1	0		No		38,531
78		73	-	82	0.4		No				0		0	0	0	3	14	29	31	17	5	1	0	No		33,196
77		72	-	83	0.2		No				0			0	0	1	5	18	32	29	13	3	0	No		27,316
76		71	-	84	0.0		No				0			0	0	0	1	8	23	34	24	8	1	0.0	%	22,397
75		70	-	85	0.0		No				0					0	0	3	13	29	34	17	3	0.0		17,324
74		69	-	86	0.0		No				0					0	0	1	6	20	37	29	8	0.3		13,438
73		68	-	87	Out		No									0	0	0	2	11	32	39	16	1.2		9,804
72		67	-	88	Out		No										0	0	1	5	24	43	27	4.1		7,327
71		66	-	89	Out		No											0	0	2	16	43	38	10.6		5,162
70		65	-	90	Out		No												0	1	10	39	50	19.4		3,583
69		64	-	91	Out		No												0	0	5	31	64	33.4		2,413
68		63	-	92	Out		No													0	3	26	71	45.0		1,591
67		62	-	93	Out		No														2	17	81	58.5		1,010
66		61	-	94	Out		No													0	1	12	87	69.7		657
65		60	-	95	Out		No															9	91	74.5		373
64		59	-	96	Out		No															7	93	84.7		229
63		58	-	97	Out		No															2	98	90.1		101
62		57	-	98	Out		No																100	97.0		66
61		56	-	99	Out		No															4	96	97.8		45
5	-60				Out		No																100	98.3		119	*

Total:					54.6	%	7.3	%	13	13	14	7	7	7	7	6	6	5	4	4	3	2	2	0.6	%	904,500

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Games Above .500

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Monday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Royals 3 Twins 5	+0.7

If winner is:HomeAway
Tuesday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Royals vs Twins	-0.5+0.7

What If

					100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:					Chance will finish season at seed
TW		W	-	L	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

106	-160				100
105		100	-	55	100	0
104		99	-	56	100
103		98	-	57	99	1
102		97	-	58	98	2
101		96	-	59	97	3
100		95	-	60	95	5	0
99		94	-	61	92	8	0
98		93	-	62	88	12	0	0
97		92	-	63	80	18	1	0
96		91	-	64	71	25	3	0	0
95		90	-	65	60	32	7	1	0	0
94		89	-	66	47	39	12	2	0	0
93		88	-	67	33	41	20	5	1	0	0
92		87	-	68	21	38	28	11	3	0	0	0			0
91		86	-	69	11	29	32	19	7	2	0	0			0
90		85	-	70	4	18	30	27	14	5	1	0	0		0	0
89		84	-	71	1	8	21	28	23	13	5	1	0	0	0	0	0
88		83	-	72	0	3	10	21	27	22	12	4	1	0	1	0	0	0
87		82	-	73	0	0	3	9	19	25	22	12	4	1	4	1	0	0	0
86		81	-	74	0	0	0	2	7	17	24	22	12	4	9	2	0	0	0
85		80	-	75			0	0	1	5	13	21	21	11	16	8	2	0	0	0	0
84		79	-	76				0	0	1	3	10	19	19	17	17	9	3	1	0	0
83		78	-	77					0	0	0	2	9	19	10	19	19	13	5	2	0	0	0	0
82		77	-	78						0	0	0	2	13	2	9	18	22	18	10	4	1	0	0	0
81		76	-	79							0	0	0	7	0	2	6	14	21	22	16	8	3	1	0	0	0
80		75	-	80								0	0	3	0	0	1	3	9	17	22	21	14	7	2	0	0	0	0
79		74	-	81									0	1	0	0	0	0	1	5	12	20	23	19	11	5	1	0	0	0
78		73	-	82										0			0	0	0	1	3	7	15	22	23	17	8	3	1	0	0
77		72	-	83										0				0	0	0	0	1	4	11	19	24	21	13	5	1	0	0
76		71	-	84									0	0					0	0	0	0	1	3	7	16	23	24	16	7	2	0	0	0
75		70	-	85										0							0	0	0	0	2	6	14	23	25	19	9	3	0	0
74		69	-	86										0									0	0	0	1	5	13	23	26	20	9	2	0
73		68	-	87																				0	0	0	1	5	13	24	28	20	8	1
72		67	-	88																						0	0	1	6	15	27	30	17	4
71		66	-	89																							0	0	2	7	20	32	28	11
70		65	-	90																								0	0	3	11	29	37	19
69		64	-	91																									0	1	6	19	40	33
68		63	-	92																									0	0	3	14	38	45
67		62	-	93																										0	1	8	32	59
66		61	-	94																											0	4	26	70
65		60	-	95																												3	23	75
64		59	-	96																												0	15	85
63		58	-	97																													10	90
62		57	-	98																													3	97
61		56	-	99																													2	98
60		55	-	100																													8	92
5	-59																																	100

Total:					7	7	6	6	5	5	5	5	4	5	4	4	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	2	2	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1