Cincinnati Reds Playoff Chances 1

Lost to Cardinals 4-5, playoff odds down 3.8 to 20.2%

2-5 .286

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How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Monday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Reg Season Champ	100.0*	Worst Team	100.0*	Average seed
Cardinals 5 Reds 4	-2.1		-0.2		+0.4		-0.3

If winner is:HomeAway
Tuesday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Reg Season Champ	100.0*	Worst Team	100.0*	Average seed
Cardinals vs Reds	-2.0+2.9		-0.2+0.3		+0.6-0.8		-0.3+0.4
Nationals vs White Sox					-0.1+0.1

What If

Chances based on how well the Reds finish out the regular season. Explain

									100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:					Chance in		Reg Season		Chance will finish regular season at seed															Worst
TW		W	-	L	playoffs		Champ		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	Team		Count

103	-157				In		Yes		100															No		115	*
102		100	-	55	In		95.0	%	98			3												No		40
101		99	-	56	In		95.1		99	1														No		81
100		98	-	57	In		92.6		98	2		1												No		163
99		97	-	58	In		91.4		98	2		0												No		279
98		96	-	59	In		84.2		92	5		3												No		425
97		95	-	60	In		77.9		93	5		2												No		805
96		94	-	61	In		70.9		87	9	0	3	0											No		1,198
95		93	-	62	In		59.1		81	13	0	5												No		1,876
94		92	-	63	100.0	%	46.2		72	19	1	8	0	0										No		2,780
93		91	-	64	In		33.4		65	22	1	12	0											No		4,224
92		90	-	65	100.0		19.8		53	28	3	15	1	0	0									No		5,983
91		89	-	66	99.9		11.1		40	30	5	22	2	0										No		8,011
90		88	-	67	99.8		4.4		27	34	8	27	4	0	0									No		11,342
89		87	-	68	99.4		1.4		16	31	12	33	7	1	0									No		15,013
88		86	-	69	98.0		0.2		8	26	15	36	14	2	0	0	0							No		19,495
87		85	-	70	94.1		0.0		3	17	17	34	22	5	1	0	0		0					No		24,169
86		84	-	71	85.8		No		1	10	16	28	31	12	2	0	0	0						No		29,607
85		83	-	72	69.1		No		0	4	13	18	33	23	7	1	0	0						No		35,552
84		82	-	73	47.1		No		0	1	10	8	28	32	16	4	1	0	0					No		41,449
83		81	-	74	25.4		No		0	0	6	3	16	31	28	12	3	0	0	0				No		46,339
82		80	-	75	9.6		No			0	3	1	6	21	32	25	10	2	0	0	0			No		51,289
81		79	-	76	2.8		No			0	1	0	1	8	23	32	23	9	2	0	0	0		No		54,634
80		78	-	77	0.7		No			0	0	0	0	2	11	26	32	21	7	1	0	0		No		57,779
79		77	-	78	0.2		No				0	0	0	0	3	13	28	31	19	6	1	0		No		58,583
78		76	-	79	0.1		No				0		0	0	1	4	16	30	30	15	4	0	0	No		57,961
77		75	-	80	0.0		No				0		0	0	0	1	6	20	32	27	11	2	0	No		55,640
76		74	-	81	0.0		No				0			0	0	0	2	9	25	34	23	7	1	0.0	%	52,496
75		73	-	82	0.0		No				0				0	0	0	3	14	31	33	16	2	0.0		48,447
74		72	-	83	Out		No									0	0	1	6	22	37	27	7	0.2		43,005
73		71	-	84	Out		No									0	0	0	2	13	33	37	14	1.2		37,603
72		70	-	85	Out		No									0	0	0	1	7	25	43	24	4.5		31,746
71		69	-	86	Out		No											0	0	3	17	44	36	10.2		26,227
70		68	-	87	Out		No											0	0	1	10	40	49	19.7		21,250
69		67	-	88	Out		No												0	0	6	33	61	32.5		16,486
68		66	-	89	Out		No												0	0	3	26	71	45.9		12,781
67		65	-	90	Out		No													0	1	19	79	58.4		9,192
66		64	-	91	Out		No														1	13	86	69.5		6,622
65		63	-	92	Out		No													0	0	9	91	78.4		4,796
64		62	-	93	Out		No														0	6	94	85.9		3,256
63		61	-	94	Out		No														0	4	96	90.6		2,160
62		60	-	95	Out		No															2	98	93.5		1,402
61		59	-	96	Out		No															1	99	96.8		837
60		58	-	97	Out		No															0	100	98.1		530
59		57	-	98	Out		No															0	100	99.0		303
58		56	-	99	Out		No															0	100	98.6		207
2	-57				Out		No																100	Yes		322	*

Total:					20.2	%	1.0	%	3	3	3	5	6	6	7	7	8	8	8	9	9	9	9	4.6	%	904,500

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Games Above .500

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Monday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Cardinals 5 Reds 4	+0.5

If winner is:HomeAway
Tuesday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Cardinals vs Reds	+0.5-0.7

What If

					100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:					Chance will finish season at seed
TW		W	-	L	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

103	-157				100
102		100	-	55	95	5
101		99	-	56	95	5
100		98	-	57	93	7
99		97	-	58	91	8	1
98		96	-	59	84	14	2
97		95	-	60	78	20	2	0
96		94	-	61	71	25	4	0	0
95		93	-	62	59	33	7	1
94		92	-	63	46	38	13	3	0	0					0
93		91	-	64	33	40	20	5	1	0
92		90	-	65	20	38	28	11	3	0	0				0	0
91		89	-	66	11	28	33	19	7	2	0	0			0
90		88	-	67	4	17	30	27	15	5	1	0			0	0
89		87	-	68	1	8	20	28	24	13	5	1	0		1	0
88		86	-	69	0	2	9	20	26	23	12	4	1	0	2	0	0	0
87		85	-	70	0	0	3	9	18	25	22	13	4	1	5	1	0	0	0	0
86		84	-	71		0	0	2	7	16	23	22	12	3	11	3	0	0	0	0
85		83	-	72		0	0	0	1	5	12	20	20	9	19	9	2	1	0	0		0
84		82	-	73				0	0	1	3	9	18	16	19	19	10	4	1	0	0	0
83		81	-	74				0	0	0	0	2	8	15	10	20	21	14	6	2	0	0	0
82		80	-	75							0	0	2	7	3	10	19	23	19	11	4	1	0	0	0
81		79	-	76								0	0	3	0	2	6	15	22	23	17	9	3	1	0	0	0
80		78	-	77									0	1	0	0	1	3	9	17	23	22	14	7	2	1	0	0
79		77	-	78									0	0		0	0	0	1	5	12	20	24	20	12	5	1	0	0	0
78		76	-	79									0	0			0	0	0	1	2	7	15	22	23	17	9	3	1	0	0
77		75	-	80										0				0	0	0	0	1	4	11	19	24	21	13	5	2	0	0
76		74	-	81										0						0	0	0	1	2	8	16	23	24	16	7	2	0	0	0
75		73	-	82										0							0	0	0	0	2	6	14	22	25	19	9	3	0	0
74		72	-	83																			0	0	0	1	5	13	23	26	20	9	2	0
73		71	-	84																				0	0	0	1	5	13	24	28	20	8	1
72		70	-	85																				0	0	0	0	1	5	15	27	29	17	4
71		69	-	86																							0	0	2	7	20	32	29	10
70		68	-	87																								0	0	3	12	29	37	20
69		67	-	88																								0	0	1	6	21	40	32
68		66	-	89																									0	0	2	13	39	46
67		65	-	90																									0	0	1	7	33	58
66		64	-	91																										0	0	4	26	70
65		63	-	92																											0	2	20	78
64		62	-	93																											0	1	13	86
63		61	-	94																												0	9	91
62		60	-	95																												0	6	94
61		59	-	96																													3	97
60		58	-	97																													2	98
59		57	-	98																													1	99
58		56	-	99																													1	99
2	-57																																	100

Total:					1	1	2	2	2	2	2	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	5	5	5	5	5	5