Philadelphia Phillies Playoff Chances 1

Lost to Mets 3-4, playoff odds down 4.9 to 28%

3-4 .429

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Monday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Reg Season Champ	100.0*	Worst Team	100.0*	Average seed
Phillies 3 Mets 4	-3.3		-0.5		+0.5		-0.4

If winner is:HomeAway
Tuesday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Reg Season Champ	100.0*	Worst Team	100.0*	Average seed
Phillies vs Mets	+2.5-3.2		+0.3-0.4		-0.4+0.6		+0.3-0.4
Nationals vs White Sox	-0.2+0.3
Marlins vs Braves	+0.2-0.2

What If

Chances based on how well the Phillies finish out the regular season. Explain

									100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:					Chance in		Reg Season		Chance will finish regular season at seed															Worst
TW		W	-	L	playoffs		Champ		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	Team		Count

105	-158				In		Yes		100															No		124	*
104		101	-	54	In		92.1	%	97			3												No		38
102	-103				In		98.5		100															No		194	*
101		98	-	57	In		97.8		100			0												No		230
100		97	-	58	In		93.4		98	2		1												No		365
99		96	-	59	In		91.3		97	3		0												No		601
98		95	-	60	In		85.8		95	4		1												No		960
97		94	-	61	In		79.3		93	5	0	2												No		1,515
96		93	-	62	In		71.1		88	9	0	2												No		2,263
95		92	-	63	In		59.5		82	13	0	4	0											No		3,467
94		91	-	64	In		45.4		73	18	1	7	0											No		5,114
93		90	-	65	99.9	%	32.8		64	24	2	9	0	0										No		7,125
92		89	-	66	100.0		19.9		52	30	3	14	1	0										No		9,811
91		88	-	67	100.0		9.7		39	34	6	19	1	0										No		13,437
90		87	-	68	99.8		4.1		27	36	9	24	3	0	0	0								No		17,212
89		86	-	69	99.4		1.3		16	34	14	29	6	1	0									No		21,900
88		85	-	70	98.1		0.2		8	28	18	32	13	2	0	0								No		27,399
87		84	-	71	94.6		0.0		3	19	20	32	21	5	0	0	0							No		33,033
86		83	-	72	86.3		0.0		1	11	20	25	29	11	2	0	0	0						No		38,474
85		82	-	73	70.7		No		0	5	17	17	32	21	7	1	0	0						No		43,594
84		81	-	74	48.8		No		0	2	12	8	26	30	16	4	1	0	0					No		48,869
83		80	-	75	26.3		No		0	0	8	3	15	30	28	12	3	0	0	0				No		53,392
82		79	-	76	10.8		No			0	4	1	6	20	32	25	10	2	0	0				No		56,713
81		78	-	77	3.4		No			0	2	0	1	9	24	31	22	8	2	0	0	0		No		58,166
80		77	-	78	1.0		No				1	0	0	2	11	26	32	20	7	1	0	0		No		58,314
79		76	-	79	0.3		No				0		0	0	3	13	28	31	18	5	1	0		No		57,383
78		75	-	80	0.1		No				0		0	0	1	5	16	30	29	15	4	0	0	No		54,442
77		74	-	81	0.0		No				0		0	0	0	1	7	20	32	27	11	2	0	No		50,457
76		73	-	82	Out		No							0	0	0	2	10	25	33	22	7	1	No		45,280
75		72	-	83	Out		No								0	0	0	3	15	31	33	15	2	0.0	%	40,213
74		71	-	84	Out		No									0	0	1	7	22	37	26	6	0.2		34,632
73		70	-	85	Out		No										0	0	3	13	33	37	14	1.1		28,780
72		69	-	86	Out		No										0	0	1	7	26	42	24	4.0		23,218
71		68	-	87	Out		No											0	0	3	17	44	36	10.0		18,560
70		67	-	88	Out		No											0	0	1	10	40	49	20.0		14,150
69		66	-	89	Out		No												0	0	6	33	60	31.3		10,962
68		65	-	90	Out		No											0	0	0	3	26	71	45.5		7,753
67		64	-	91	Out		No												0	0	1	19	80	58.6		5,508
66		63	-	92	Out		No														1	12	87	69.5		3,806
65		62	-	93	Out		No														0	9	90	79.2		2,602
64		61	-	94	Out		No														0	6	94	85.2		1,621
63		60	-	95	Out		No															4	96	90.6		1,060
62		59	-	96	Out		No															2	98	94.5		703
61		58	-	97	Out		No															2	98	94.5		417
60		57	-	98	Out		No															2	98	95.1		247
3	-59				Out		No																100	99.2		396	*

Total:					28.0	%	1.8	%	4	5	5	6	7	7	7	7	8	8	8	7	7	7	6	2.8	%	904,500

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Games Above .500

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Monday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Phillies 3 Mets 4	+0.7

If winner is:HomeAway
Tuesday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Phillies vs Mets	-0.6+0.7

What If

					100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:					Chance will finish season at seed
TW		W	-	L	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

105	-158				100
104		101	-	54	92	8
103		100	-	55	98	2
102		99	-	56	98	2
101		98	-	57	98	2
100		97	-	58	93	7
99		96	-	59	91	8	0
98		95	-	60	86	13	1
97		94	-	61	79	19	1	0
96		93	-	62	71	25	4	0
95		92	-	63	60	33	7	1	0
94		91	-	64	45	39	13	2	0
93		90	-	65	33	41	20	5	1	0	0				0
92		89	-	66	20	37	29	11	3	0	0	0			0
91		88	-	67	10	29	32	20	7	2	0	0			0
90		87	-	68	4	17	30	27	15	5	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
89		86	-	69	1	7	20	28	24	13	5	1	0	0	1	0	0
88		85	-	70	0	2	9	19	26	23	13	5	1	0	2	0	0
87		84	-	71	0	0	3	9	18	25	22	13	5	1	5	1	0	0
86		83	-	72	0	0	0	2	7	16	23	22	12	3	11	3	0	0	0	0
85		82	-	73			0	0	1	5	13	21	21	10	17	9	3	0	0	0	0
84		81	-	74			0	0	0	1	3	10	18	17	18	18	10	4	1	0	0	0
83		80	-	75						0	0	2	8	16	10	20	21	14	6	2	0	0	0	0
82		79	-	76						0	0	0	2	9	2	9	19	23	19	11	5	1	0	0	0
81		78	-	77							0	0	0	3	0	2	6	14	22	23	17	8	3	1	0	0	0
80		77	-	78								0	0	1	0	0	1	3	9	17	23	22	14	7	2	0	0	0	0
79		76	-	79									0	0	0	0	0	0	1	5	12	20	24	19	12	5	1	0	0	0
78		75	-	80									0	0		0		0	0	1	2	7	15	22	23	17	8	3	1	0		0
77		74	-	81										0					0	0	0	1	4	11	19	24	21	13	5	1	0	0
76		73	-	82														0		0	0	0	1	3	8	16	24	23	16	7	2	0	0
75		72	-	83																		0	0	0	2	6	14	22	25	18	9	3	0	0
74		71	-	84																			0	0	0	1	5	13	22	26	20	9	2	0
73		70	-	85																			0		0	0	1	5	13	24	28	20	8	1
72		69	-	86																					0	0	0	1	5	15	28	29	17	4
71		68	-	87																							0	0	2	7	20	32	28	10
70		67	-	88																							0	0	1	3	12	28	37	20
69		66	-	89																								0	0	1	6	21	41	31
68		65	-	90																									0	0	2	13	39	45
67		64	-	91																										0	1	7	33	59
66		63	-	92																											0	4	26	70
65		62	-	93																											0	2	19	79
64		61	-	94																											0	1	14	85
63		60	-	95																												0	9	91
62		59	-	96																												0	5	94
61		58	-	97																													6	94
60		57	-	98																													5	95
59		56	-	99																													1	99
58		55	-	100																													1	99
57		54	-	101																													2	98
3	-56																																	100

Total:					2	2	2	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	3	3	3