Chicago Cubs Playoff Chances 1

Lost to Brewers 2-5, playoff odds down 5 to 15.8%

2-5 .286

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How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Monday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Reg Season Champ	100.0*	Worst Team	100.0*	Average seed
Cubs 2 Brewers 5	-2.8		-0.3		+0.9		-0.4

If winner is:HomeAway
Tuesday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Reg Season Champ	100.0*	Worst Team	100.0*	Average seed
Cubs vs Brewers	+1.7-2.1		+0.1-0.2		-0.8+1.0		+0.3-0.3
Nationals vs White Sox	-0.1+0.2				-0.1+0.2

What If

Chances based on how well the Cubs finish out the regular season. Explain

									100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:					Chance in		Reg Season		Chance will finish regular season at seed															Worst
TW		W	-	L	playoffs		Champ		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	Team		Count

102	-157				In		Yes		100															No		130	*
101		99	-	56	In		97.8	%	98	2														No		45
100		98	-	57	In		93.7		98	2														No		63
99		97	-	58	In		91.5		96	4														No		141
98		96	-	59	In		82.8		92	5		3	0											No		279
97		95	-	60	In		83.5		94	4		2	0											No		425
96		94	-	61	In		68.5		88	8	0	4	0											No		744
95		93	-	62	In		63.1		85	11	0	4	0											No		1,200
94		92	-	63	In		48.9		75	17	1	8	0											No		1,789
93		91	-	64	In		34.2		66	21	1	12	0											No		2,769
92		90	-	65	100.0	%	21.3		54	26	3	16	1	0										No		4,056
91		89	-	66	100.0		11.6		40	32	5	22	2	0										No		6,002
90		88	-	67	99.7		4.4		28	32	8	28	4	0	0									No		8,356
89		87	-	68	99.4		1.4		16	31	11	33	8	1	0	0								No		11,206
88		86	-	69	98.1		0.2		8	25	14	36	14	2	0	0								No		14,901
87		85	-	70	94.1		0.0		3	17	16	35	23	5	1	0	0							No		18,959
86		84	-	71	85.4		0.0		1	10	16	28	31	12	2	0	0	0						No		24,362
85		83	-	72	69.4		No		0	5	13	18	33	23	7	1	0	0						No		29,364
84		82	-	73	46.7		No		0	1	9	9	27	31	17	4	1	0	0	0				No		34,885
83		81	-	74	24.1		No			0	5	3	16	31	29	13	3	0	0	0				No		40,959
82		80	-	75	9.2		No			0	3	1	6	20	32	25	10	2	0	0	0			No		46,513
81		79	-	76	2.6		No			0	1	0	1	8	23	32	23	9	2	0	0			No		51,712
80		78	-	77	0.6		No				0	0	0	2	11	25	32	21	7	1	0	0		No		54,857
79		77	-	78	0.2		No				0	0	0	0	3	13	27	31	19	6	1	0	0	No		56,800
78		76	-	79	0.0		No				0		0	0	1	4	15	29	30	16	4	0	0	No		58,683
77		75	-	80	0.0		No				0		0	0	0	1	6	19	32	27	12	2	0	No		57,979
76		74	-	81	0.0		No				0			0	0	0	2	9	24	34	23	7	1	0.0	%	55,838
75		73	-	82	Out		No							0	0	0	0	3	14	30	33	16	3	0.0		52,813
74		72	-	83	Out		No									0	0	1	6	22	37	27	7	0.2		48,647
73		71	-	84	Out		No									0	0	0	2	13	33	38	14	1.2		43,353
72		70	-	85	Out		No										0	0	1	6	25	44	25	4.1		37,780
71		69	-	86	Out		No											0	0	3	16	44	37	10.1		31,523
70		68	-	87	Out		No												0	1	10	40	50	19.9		26,687
69		67	-	88	Out		No											0	0	0	5	33	61	31.5		21,417
68		66	-	89	Out		No												0	0	3	26	71	45.4		16,759
67		65	-	90	Out		No													0	1	19	80	58.6		12,441
66		64	-	91	Out		No														1	13	86	70.1		9,459
65		63	-	92	Out		No													0	0	9	91	78.9		6,705
64		62	-	93	Out		No														0	5	95	85.8		4,798
63		61	-	94	Out		No														0	4	96	90.4		3,280
62		60	-	95	Out		No															2	98	94.5		2,162
61		59	-	96	Out		No															1	99	97.0		1,370
60		58	-	97	Out		No															1	99	97.4		918
59		57	-	98	Out		No															0	100	98.9		541
58		56	-	99	Out		No															0	100	98.8		333
57		55	-	100	Out		No															1	99	99.5		190
2	-56				Out		No																100	99.7		307	*

Total:					15.8	%	0.7	%	2	2	3	4	5	5	6	7	7	8	9	9	10	11	12	6.3	%	904,500

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Games Above .500

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Monday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Cubs 2 Brewers 5	+0.7

If winner is:HomeAway
Tuesday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Cubs vs Brewers	-0.5+0.7

What If

					100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:					Chance will finish season at seed
TW		W	-	L	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

102	-157				100
101		99	-	56	98	2
100		98	-	57	94	6
99		97	-	58	91	9
98		96	-	59	83	16	1
97		95	-	60	84	15	2
96		94	-	61	69	27	3	1	0
95		93	-	62	63	30	6	1	0
94		92	-	63	49	37	12	2	0
93		91	-	64	34	40	20	5	1	0
92		90	-	65	21	37	29	10	2	0	0				0
91		89	-	66	12	29	32	20	6	1	0				0
90		88	-	67	4	18	29	27	14	5	1	0	0		0	0
89		87	-	68	1	8	21	28	23	13	4	1	0	0	1	0	0
88		86	-	69	0	3	10	20	26	21	12	4	1	0	2	0	0
87		85	-	70	0	0	3	9	19	24	22	12	4	1	5	1	0	0
86		84	-	71	0	0	0	2	7	16	23	22	12	3	11	3	0	0	0
85		83	-	72		0	0	0	1	5	13	20	20	9	18	9	3	0	0	0
84		82	-	73				0	0	1	3	10	18	15	19	19	10	4	1	0	0	0	0
83		81	-	74					0	0	0	2	8	14	10	20	21	15	6	2	0	0	0		0
82		80	-	75							0	0	2	7	3	10	19	23	19	11	4	1	0	0	0
81		79	-	76							0	0	0	2	0	2	6	15	22	23	17	9	3	1	0	0	0
80		78	-	77								0	0	1	0	0	1	3	9	17	23	22	14	7	2	0	0	0	0
79		77	-	78									0	0		0	0	0	1	5	12	20	23	20	12	5	1	0	0	0
78		76	-	79										0				0	0	1	2	7	15	22	23	17	9	3	1	0	0
77		75	-	80										0				0	0	0	0	1	4	11	19	24	21	13	5	1	0	0
76		74	-	81										0					0	0	0	0	1	3	7	16	23	24	16	7	2	0	0	0
75		73	-	82																	0	0	0	0	2	6	14	22	25	19	9	3	0	0
74		72	-	83																		0	0	0	0	1	5	13	23	27	20	9	2	0
73		71	-	84																			0	0	0	0	1	5	13	24	28	20	8	1
72		70	-	85																					0	0	0	1	5	15	27	30	17	4
71		69	-	86																							0	0	2	7	20	33	28	10
70		68	-	87																							0	0	0	3	11	29	37	20
69		67	-	88																									0	1	5	21	41	31
68		66	-	89																									0	0	2	13	39	45
67		65	-	90																										0	1	7	33	59
66		64	-	91																										0	0	4	26	70
65		63	-	92																										0	0	2	19	79
64		62	-	93																											0	1	13	86
63		61	-	94																												0	9	90
62		60	-	95																												0	5	95
61		59	-	96																													3	97
60		58	-	97																													3	97
59		57	-	98																													1	99
58		56	-	99																													1	99
57		55	-	100																													1	99
56		54	-	101																													1	99
2	-55																																	100

Total:					1	1	1	1	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	3	3	3	3	3	4	4	4	4	4	4	5	5	5	5	5	6	6	6