How are these numbers calculated?

## Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

 Week of 2/22 100.0* Chance wins title 100.0* Playoff LFFA B 100.0* Campeonato Nacional 100.0* Average seed Bolanha 22 Floresta Negra 17 -0.5 -5.9 +0.1 -0.6 Doza 24 Olímpia 23 -0.1 +0.4 Olimorque 23 Dima Cardinals 22 +0.8 Duas 28 FAC Metropolitano 17 -0.3 Pocino 28 Zopene 25 (ot) -0.2 Esquina de Baixo 23 Paternos 42 -0.7 -0.0 União Militar 13 Siliar 31 -0.3 -0.0 If winner is:HomeHome OTTieAway OTAway Dima Cardinals vs Doza -0.5-0.3*-0.2+0.4+0.5 -0.1-0.0*-0.0+0.0+0.1 Zopene vs Duas -0.1-0.0-0.0+0.0+0.0 Olimorque vs Pocino +0.5+0.4+0.2-0.3-0.5 If winner is:HomeHome OTTieAway OTAway Week of 3/1 100.0* Chance wins title 100.0* Playoff LFFA B 100.0* Campeonato Nacional 100.0* Average seed Liga Operária vs Floresta Negra -0.1-0.1-0.1*+0.0+0.1 -5.9-4.5-1.4+1.5+3.7 +0.4+0.1-0.1-0.2-0.3 -1.0-0.6-0.1+0.3+0.6 Siliar vs Bolanha -0.1-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0 Olímpia vs Esquina de Baixo -0.4-0.2+0.6+0.9+1.0 -0.0-0.0+0.0+0.1+0.1 Paternos vs Serafiano -0.4-0.1+0.6+0.8+1.2 Siliar vs Abedi Pelé -0.3*-0.0+0.3+0.4+0.6 -0.0-0.0+0.1+0.0+0.1 Jiquiá FAC vs AE Popular -0.0-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

## What If

Chances based on how well the Floresta Negra finish out the regular season.   Explain

 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 If finish: Chance Playoff Chance will finish season at seed Campeonato TP W - OT - W L - OT T wins title LFFA B 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Nacional Count 63 12 - 0 - 0 0 - 0 0 64.4 % Yes 64 31 4 0 No 3,448 62 11 - 1 - 0 0 - 0 0 56.4 Yes 56 37 7 0 No 1,855 61 10 - 2 - 0 0 - 0 0 49.4 Yes 49 42 8 0 No 1,480 * 60 11 - 0 - 0 0 - 1 0 35.8 Yes 36 46 16 2 No 2,544 * 59 11 - 0 - 0 1 - 0 0 21.3 Yes 21 46 27 5 0 No 24,105 * 58 10 - 1 - 0 1 - 0 0 15.7 Yes 16 43 33 8 0 No 20,128 * 57 10 - 0 - 0 1 - 0 1 11.9 100.0 % 12 39 37 11 1 0 No 15,897 * 56 10 - 0 - 0 1 - 1 0 5.6 99.8 6 28 40 22 4 0 No 25,450 * 55 10 - 0 - 0 2 - 0 0 1.9 99.0 2 16 38 33 10 1 0 No 130,053 * 54 9 - 1 - 0 2 - 0 0 1.0 98.3 1 11 35 38 14 2 0 No 97,193 * 53 9 - 0 - 0 2 - 0 1 0.5 96.4 0 7 29 40 20 3 0 0 No 74,998 * 52 9 - 0 - 0 2 - 1 0 0.1 87.2 0 3 16 36 32 11 1 0 0 No 113,493 * 51 9 - 0 - 0 3 - 0 0 0.0 73.7 0 1 7 27 39 21 5 0 0 No 410,132 * 50 8 - 1 - 0 3 - 0 0 0.0 65.2 0 0 4 22 39 27 7 1 0 0 No 277,234 * 49 8 - 0 - 0 3 - 0 1 0.0 51.9 0 0 2 15 35 33 13 2 0 0 No 205,330 * 48 8 - 0 - 0 3 - 1 0 0.0 28.2 0 0 0 5 22 37 26 8 1 0 0 No 297,420 * 47 8 - 0 - 0 4 - 0 0 No 14.1 0 0 2 12 31 34 16 4 0 0 No 842,819 * 46 7 - 1 - 0 4 - 0 0 No 9.1 0 1 8 26 35 22 6 1 0 No 513,239 * 45 7 - 0 - 0 4 - 0 1 No 4.7 0 0 4 18 34 29 12 2 0 0 No 363,921 * 44 7 - 0 - 0 4 - 1 0 No 1.2 0 0 1 8 26 35 23 7 1 0 No 505,874 * 43 7 - 0 - 0 5 - 0 0 No 0.3 0 0 3 16 33 32 14 2 0 0 No 941,240 6 - 1 - 0 4 - 1 0 No 0.3 0 0 4 16 33 31 13 2 0 No 252,862 * 42 6 - 1 - 0 5 - 0 0 No 0.1 0 0 2 11 28 35 20 4 0 0 No 647,645 * 41 6 - 0 - 0 5 - 0 1 No 0.0 0 1 6 21 36 27 8 1 0 No 439,184 * 40 6 - 0 - 0 5 - 1 0 No 0.0 0 0 2 12 31 36 17 2 0 0 No 588,924 * 39 6 - 0 - 0 6 - 0 0 No 0.0 0 0 1 6 22 39 28 5 0 0 0 No 1,200,200 * 38 5 - 1 - 0 6 - 0 0 No No 0 0 3 15 36 35 10 1 0 0 No 570,835 * 37 5 - 0 - 0 6 - 0 1 No No 0 0 1 9 31 41 16 2 0 0 No 371,852 * 36 5 - 0 - 0 6 - 1 0 No No 0 0 4 20 42 27 6 1 0 No 477,701 * 35 5 - 0 - 0 7 - 0 0 No No 0 0 1 11 37 36 13 2 0 0 No 859,357 * 34 4 - 1 - 0 7 - 0 0 No No 0 0 6 30 41 19 3 0 0 No 351,319 * 33 4 - 0 - 0 7 - 0 1 No No 0 0 3 21 41 27 7 1 0 No 217,637 * 32 4 - 0 - 0 7 - 1 0 No No 0 0 1 10 32 36 17 4 0 0 No 271,232 * 31 4 - 0 - 0 8 - 0 0 No No 0 0 4 22 37 27 9 1 0 0 0.0 % 434,517 * 30 3 - 1 - 0 8 - 0 0 No No 0 2 15 34 32 14 3 0 0 0.0 147,740 * 29 3 - 0 - 0 8 - 0 1 No No 0 1 8 26 35 22 6 1 0 0.0 86,738 * 28 3 - 0 - 0 8 - 1 0 No No 0 2 13 31 33 17 4 0 0 0.4 105,421 * 27 3 - 0 - 0 9 - 0 0 No No 0 1 6 21 35 27 9 1 0 0 1.5 152,629 * 26 2 - 1 - 0 9 - 0 0 No No 0 0 3 15 32 32 15 3 0 0 3.2 40,516 * 25 2 - 0 - 0 9 - 0 1 No No 0 1 7 24 35 24 7 1 0 7.9 22,759 * 24 2 - 0 - 0 9 - 1 0 No No 0 2 11 29 35 19 4 0 22.9 26,760 * 23 2 - 0 - 0 10 - 0 0 No No 0 0 5 20 36 29 8 1 37.9 35,099 * 22 1 - 1 - 0 10 - 0 0 No No 0 3 14 34 34 14 2 49.4 6,756 * 21 1 - 0 - 0 10 - 0 1 No No 1 7 26 40 22 4 66.1 3,506 * 20 1 - 0 - 0 10 - 1 0 No No 0 2 13 38 36 10 84.6 3,990 * 19 1 - 0 - 0 11 - 0 0 No No 0 1 8 30 44 18 91.6 4,753 * 18 0 - 1 - 0 11 - 0 0 No No 5 29 45 21 94.6 459 * 17 0 - 0 - 0 10 - 2 0 No No 2 19 52 28 98.3 240 * 16 0 - 0 - 0 11 - 1 0 No No 1 13 35 50 98.5 272 15 0 - 0 - 0 12 - 0 0 No No 0 5 34 61 99.8 1,804 Total: 0.2 % 11.1 % 0 1 2 3 5 8 10 11 13 14 13 9 5 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0.3 % 12,190,560

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points
Chance Will Win Championship