GrecoD Playoff Chances LL65

Tied BowmanD 6-6, Plays at BreedingT 11:59 PM, Beat BrowneL 7-1, Plays at ColemanK 11:59 PM, Beat ErnstS 7-4, Lost to AndrewsS 6-9, Beat BourkeR 4-1, Beat ConeCW 9-3, Lost to CurtinT 6-9, Lost to EsneaultG 4-6, Beat FreezeB 5-0, Beat GelfandJ 9-7, Beat HartleyK 9-2, Beat HudsonB 9-6, Beat MuttrejaR 5-4, Beat RizzoA 3-0, Beat SkardonS 3-1, Beat WatsonKR 6-3, Lost to GrecoG 4-6, Plays at HeffnerE 11:59 PM, Beat LeeD2 6-3, Beat PriceE 5-4, Beat SamaK 6-1, Tied SharpJ 5-5, Plays at TavelP 11:59 PM, playoff odds up 64.3 to 99.9999%

32 points 15 4-0 2

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Monday, 6/22	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Rundle B	100.0*	Rundle E	100.0*	Average seed
GrecoD 4 EsneaultG 6	-8.1		-7.7		+3.6		-1.3
GrecoD 9 HudsonB 6	+7.6		+4.9		-4.3		+1.2
GrecoD 3 SkardonS 1	+7.5		+5.5		-5.1		+1.3
GrecoD 4 BourkeR 1	+7.2		+5.6		-3.2		+1.1
GrecoD 9 GelfandJ 7	+6.7		+6.8		-1.5		+1.0
SamaK 1 GrecoD 6	+6.5		+3.6		-6.4		+1.3
GrecoD 5 MuttrejaR 4	+6.0		+7.9		-0.8		+0.9
GrecoD 9 ConeCW 3	+5.4		+8.7		-0.3		+0.9
GrecoD 6 CurtinT 9	-3.7		-10.0				-0.8
GrecoD 3 RizzoA 0	+3.5		+6.1		-0.3		+0.6
GrecoD 5 FreezeB 0	+2.4		+6.8				+0.5
GrecoD 6 WatsonKR 3	+1.4		+9.5				+0.6
GrecoD 9 HartleyK 2	+0.5		+7.8				+0.4
WatsonKR 7 JeziorskiM 4	-0.4		+0.8
HartleyK 8 JeziorskiM 6	-0.3		+1.5
ErnstS 4 GrecoD 7	+0.3		+6.7		*No		+0.3
LeeD2 6 HeffnerE 3			-1.2
BowmanD 3 WatsonKR 1			-1.0
LeeD2 3 GrecoD 6			+14.9		*No		+0.7
SamaK 3 SharpJ 2			+1.4
LeeD2 4 PriceE 3			-0.7
BrowneL 1 SharpJ 2			-0.7
AndrewsS 9 HeffnerE 2			-0.8
LeeD2 2 GrecoG 1			-0.9
LeeD2 8 BreedingT 2			-0.7
GrecoD 6 AndrewsS 9			-9.2				-0.5
SharpJ 5 PriceE 3			-0.7
JeziorskiM 6 FreezeB 4			-0.6
BowmanD 6 GrecoD 6	+0.1		-0.2		-0.6		+0.1
BowmanD 7 ConeCW 1			-0.7
AndrewsS 9 BreedingT 3			-0.7
SharpJ 8 GrecoG 6			-0.9
ErnstS 1 ColemanK 8			-0.7
SharpJ 6 HeffnerE 7			+2.0
SharpJ 1 ColemanK 4			+0.6
BrowneL 1 GrecoD 7			+7.9				+0.4
SharpJ 2 BreedingT 0			-0.7
ErnstS 3 JeziorskiM 4			-1.0
GrecoG 1 JeziorskiM 5			-1.9
EsneaultG 3 AndrewsS 6			-1.1
SharpJ 5 GrecoD 5			+0.5				-0.0
SharpJ 7 BowmanD 8			-2.2
LeeD2 6 HommeyerM 4			-1.2
PriceE 4 GrecoD 5			+7.1				+0.3
EsneaultG 2 LeeD2 4			-2.7
GrecoG 6 GrecoD 4			-10.8				-0.6
HudsonB 3 LeeD2 1			+5.2				+0.2
GrecoG 7 BowmanD 4			+4.4
ColemanK 5 JeziorskiM 6			-3.5
BrowneL 4 BowmanD 2			+3.3		*No
GelfandJ 8 AndrewsS 6			+2.9				+0.2
BowmanD 2 HartleyK 4			+2.3
BreedingT 6 JeziorskiM 6			+2.1
LeeD2 6 SkardonS 0			-2.0
SkardonS 0 AndrewsS 7			-1.6
HeffnerE 5 JeziorskiM 9			-1.5
ColemanK 6 BowmanD 4			+1.5
MuttrejaR 0 CurtinT 5			+1.4
PriceE 0 BowmanD 3 (ot)			-1.4
BourkeR 2 LeeD2 6			-1.3
ErnstS 4 BowmanD 5			-1.1
PriceE 1 JeziorskiM 7			-1.1
AndrewsS 4 GrecoG 6			+1.1
LeeD2 4 BowmanD 7			-1.0
MuttrejaR 2 AndrewsS 9			-1.0
AndrewsS 8 HommeyerM 3			-0.9
AndrewsS 6 BowmanD 7			-0.9
BowmanD 8 FreezeB 4			-0.8
HudsonB 0 AndrewsS 6			-0.7
HartleyK 2 ColemanK 8			-0.6
LeeD2 5 TavelP 0 (ot)			-0.5
BourkeR 3 AndrewsS 6			-0.5
AndrewsS 9 TavelP 0 (ot)			-0.4
BrowneL 2 ColemanK 7			-0.4
PriceE 1 ColemanK 3			-0.3
SamaK 2 BreedingT 1					*No
If winner is:HomeHome OTTieAway OTAway
BreedingT vs GrecoD			-28.7-46.3-8.6+8.0+8.9				-1.0-1.5-0.3+0.3+0.3
ColemanK vs GrecoD			-9.7-28.8+7.2+18.3+18.7				-0.4-1.0+0.2+0.8+0.8
GelfandJ vs LeeD2			+7.2+11.3+1.1-4.3-4.5				+0.2+0.3+0.0-0.1-0.1
TavelP vs JeziorskiM			+8.3+11.2+3.5-0.7-1.1				+0.3+0.3+0.1-0.0-0.0
MuttrejaR vs LeeD2			+6.2+10.5-0.2-5.3-5.6				+0.2+0.3+0.0-0.1-0.1
SamaK vs JeziorskiM			+7.7+10.4+2.6-1.6-2.1				+0.2+0.3+0.1-0.1-0.1
RizzoA vs AndrewsS			+4.3+8.3+1.3-0.6-0.7				+0.3+0.5+0.1-0.0-0.0
CurtinT vs AndrewsS			+2.7+6.8*+0.1-1.4-1.3				+0.2+0.4+0.1-0.1-0.1
HeffnerE vs BowmanD			+4.2+5.3+1.4-2.1-2.6				+0.1+0.2+0.0-0.1-0.1
BreedingT vs BowmanD			+4.4+5.5+2.0-1.2-1.6				+0.1+0.2+0.1-0.0-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the GrecoD finish out the regular season. Explain

100

If finish:

Chance in

Rundle

Chance will finish regular season at seed

Rundle

playoffs

Count

Yes

1,815,729

99.5

1,297,462

95.8

4,067,406

96.1

328,446

75.6

1,875,220

79.7

520,082

75.7

35,676

46.7

2,182,956

47.3

280,796

52.1

239,110

48.8

1,376

15.3

615,242

18.2

556,251

19.1

35,991

15.4

14,024

3.5

376,995

4.2

157,303

3.5

43,117

4.8

35,828

4.3

1,811

0.5

143,424

0.4

49,187

0.5

10,926

0.6

10,079

0.0

18,883

0.0

18,419

0.0

17,508

0.3

643

100.0

8,394

2,491

743

99.9

1,595

99.0

103

94.2

139

Total:

100.0

72.4

14,763,360

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs