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GelfandJ Playoff Chances LL65 50/50
Lost to BourkeR 4-5, Lost to BowmanD 3-6, Beat BreedingT 7-5, Lost to EsneaultG 3-4, Beat AndrewsS 8-6, Plays BrowneL 11:59 PM, Lost to ConeCW 1-3, Beat CurtinT 5-4, Tied ErnstS 2-2, Tied FreezeB 3-3, Beat HartleyK 5-3, Plays LeeD2 11:59 PM, Lost to MuttrejaR 1-6, Plays PriceE 11:59 PM, Beat RizzoA 8-0 (ot), Plays SharpJ 11:59 PM, Lost to WatsonKR 2-5, Lost to GrecoD 7-9, Lost to HeffnerE 3-5, Beat HommeyerM 6-4, Lost to HudsonB 4-7, Lost to JeziorskiM 1-3, Beat SamaK 2-1, Beat SkardonS 2-1, Beat TavelP 1-0 (ot), playoff odds down 32.2 to 3.5%
20 points 9 10-0 2
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How are these numbers calculated?
Big Games
How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain
| Monday, 6/22 | 100.0* | Chance in playoffs | 100.0* | Rundle B | 100.0* | Rundle E | 100.0* | Average seed |
| EsneaultG 4 GelfandJ 3 | -8.6 | -3.4 | +7.7 | -1.5 | ||||
| BowmanD 6 GelfandJ 3 | -8.4 | -5.4 | +6.7 | -1.5 | ||||
| HommeyerM 4 GelfandJ 6 | +8.3 | +4.6 | -8.1 | +1.7 | ||||
| GrecoD 9 GelfandJ 7 | -8.0 | -4.1 | +7.4 | -1.5 | ||||
| JeziorskiM 3 GelfandJ 1 | -8.0 | -5.5 | +6.4 | -1.5 | ||||
| SkardonS 1 GelfandJ 2 | +7.9 | +3.1 | -9.2 | +1.7 | ||||
| GelfandJ 1 ConeCW 3 | -7.7 | -0.2 | +8.9 | -1.3 | ||||
| BreedingT 5 GelfandJ 7 | +7.7 | +4.7 | -7.6 | +1.6 | ||||
| HeffnerE 5 GelfandJ 3 | -7.6 | -5.2 | +6.4 | -1.5 | ||||
| TavelP 0 GelfandJ 1 (ot) | +7.5 | +4.4 | -7.4 | +1.5 | ||||
| HudsonB 7 GelfandJ 4 | -7.5 | -2.0 | +8.8 | -1.5 | ||||
| GelfandJ 5 CurtinT 4 | +6.5 | +0.2 | -11.6 | +1.5 | ||||
| GelfandJ 1 MuttrejaR 6 | -6.1 | -0.6 | +9.8 | -1.4 | ||||
| BourkeR 5 GelfandJ 4 | -6.0 | -1.2 | +9.7 | -1.4 | ||||
| SamaK 1 GelfandJ 2 | +4.9 | +0.5 | -11.1 | +1.5 | ||||
| GelfandJ 2 WatsonKR 5 | -4.6 | No | +11.3 | -1.3 | ||||
| GelfandJ 8 RizzoA 0 (ot) | +3.9 | -10.2 | +1.3 | |||||
| GelfandJ 8 AndrewsS 6 | +3.4 | -11.5 | +1.2 | |||||
| GelfandJ 5 HartleyK 3 | +2.0 | -14.9 | +1.3 | |||||
| GelfandJ 2 ErnstS 2 | -1.1 | -2.9 | +0.1 | |||||
| CurtinT 0 FreezeB 1E-05 (ot) | +0.8 | +1.2 | ||||||
| GelfandJ 3 FreezeB 3 | -0.8 | -1.3 | +0.1 | |||||
| GrecoG 5 TavelP 0 (ot) | -0.7 | *+0.4 | ||||||
| GrecoG 6 GrecoD 4 | -0.6 | |||||||
| ConeCW 4 FreezeB 7 | +0.5 | +1.3 | ||||||
| RizzoA 1 CurtinT 6 | -0.4 | +0.6 | ||||||
| HudsonB 2 WatsonKR 5 | -0.4 | -0.3 | ||||||
| GrecoG 7 BreedingT 5 | -0.4 | +0.6 | ||||||
| BrowneL 4 EsneaultG 6 | -0.4 | -1.6 | ||||||
| MuttrejaR 9 HartleyK 1 | -0.4 | -1.6 | ||||||
| ColemanK 9 HeffnerE 1 | +0.3 | -0.6 | ||||||
| MuttrejaR 2 FreezeB 1 | -0.3 | -1.2 | ||||||
| BrowneL 3 JeziorskiM 7 | -0.3 | -0.6 | ||||||
| SharpJ 3 HommeyerM 6 | +0.3 | +0.9 | ||||||
| ColemanK 6 HommeyerM 1 | +0.3 | -0.4 | ||||||
| EsneaultG 8 FreezeB 4 | -0.3 | -0.5 | ||||||
| SkardonS 0 AndrewsS 7 | -0.3 | -0.6 | ||||||
| GrecoG 3 ColemanK 9 | -0.4 | |||||||
| HeffnerE 3 TavelP 0 (ot) | +0.6 | |||||||
| PriceE 1 JeziorskiM 7 | -0.9 | |||||||
| HartleyK 5 TavelP 0 (ot) | *+0.3 | |||||||
| GrecoD 6 WatsonKR 3 | -0.3 | |||||||
| SamaK 5 MuttrejaR 9 | -0.7 | |||||||
| HudsonB 3 RizzoA 1 | +0.6 | |||||||
| SamaK 1 RizzoA 3 | -0.5 | |||||||
| GrecoD 9 HartleyK 2 | -0.6 | |||||||
| BowmanD 2 HartleyK 4 | +0.7 | |||||||
| LeeD2 6 HommeyerM 4 | -0.7 | |||||||
| BreedingT 3 HommeyerM 4 | +0.6 | |||||||
| BreedingT 0 HeffnerE 6 | +1.1 | |||||||
| ErnstS 3 JeziorskiM 4 | -0.5 | |||||||
| SamaK 1 ColemanK 7 | -0.8 | |||||||
| HudsonB 4 BrowneL 1 | -0.4 | |||||||
| HudsonB 3 LeeD2 1 | +1.6 | |||||||
| AndrewsS 8 HommeyerM 3 | -0.7 | |||||||
| EsneaultG 5 ErnstS 5 | *+0.1 | |||||||
| MuttrejaR 0 CurtinT 5 | +0.8 | |||||||
| SamaK 3 SharpJ 2 | +0.3 | +0.4 | ||||||
| BowmanD 8 FreezeB 4 | -0.5 | |||||||
| GrecoD 5 FreezeB 0 | -0.5 | |||||||
| ErnstS 4 BowmanD 5 | -0.7 | |||||||
| ErnstS 4 GrecoD 7 | -0.8 | |||||||
| HudsonB 0 AndrewsS 6 | -1.1 | |||||||
| RizzoA 3 FreezeB 0 | -1.5 | |||||||
| BourkeR 3 ErnstS 2 | -1.3 | |||||||
| BrowneL 1 GrecoD 7 | -1.1 | |||||||
| BrowneL 6 SkardonS 3 | +1.1 | |||||||
| BrowneL 4 BowmanD 2 | +1.0 | |||||||
| BrowneL 8 TavelP 0 (ot) | +0.8 | |||||||
| SamaK 2 BreedingT 1 | +0.7 | |||||||
| LeeD2 6 SkardonS 0 | -0.6 | |||||||
| SharpJ 6 HeffnerE 7 | +0.6 | |||||||
| BourkeR 0 RizzoA 3 | -0.4 | |||||||
| ErnstS 1E-06 TavelP 0 (ot) | *+0.3 | |||||||
| BourkeR 3 HartleyK 3 | *+0.2 | |||||||
| RizzoA 3 HartleyK 3 | *-0.1 | |||||||
| If winner is:HomeHome OTTieAway OTAway | ||||||||
| GelfandJ vs LeeD2 | +3.7+2.8-1.5-3.5-3.2 | -7.1-6.8-2.3+16.9+6.3 | +1.2+1.0+0.1-1.9-1.1 | |||||
| GelfandJ vs BrowneL | +3.7+2.8-1.5-3.5-3.2 | -7.8-7.7-3.5+18.2+7.3 | +1.2+1.1+0.1-2.0-1.1 | |||||
| GrecoG vs SkardonS | -0.8-0.8-0.1+1.3+0.8 | -0.1-0.1-0.0+0.1+0.1 | ||||||
| BourkeR vs SharpJ | +0.7+1.2*-0.1-0.7-0.8 | +0.1+0.1-0.0-0.1-0.1 | ||||||
| MuttrejaR vs ErnstS | -0.6-0.6*-0.1+1.1+0.5 | -0.8-1.0-0.2+0.7+0.9 | ||||||
| GrecoG vs EsneaultG | -0.6-0.2-0.3+1.1+0.6 | -0.1-0.0-0.0+0.1+0.1 | ||||||
| SharpJ vs HudsonB | -0.6-0.6+0.1+1.0+0.6 | -0.5-1.0+0.2+0.5+0.5 | +0.1+0.2-0.0+0.0-0.1 | |||||
| MuttrejaR vs LeeD2 | -0.6-0.5-0.1+1.0+0.6 | -0.0-0.0-0.0+0.1+0.0 | ||||||
| ConeCW vs HartleyK | -0.5-0.3+0.1+0.5+0.4 | -1.4-1.9*+0.0+1.1+1.5 | -0.0-0.0-0.0+0.1+0.0 | |||||
| FreezeB vs WatsonKR | +0.2+0.6*-0.1-0.2-0.2 | +1.4+1.2*+0.0-2.2-1.3 | -0.1-0.1+0.0+0.1+0.1 | |||||
| CurtinT vs HartleyK | -0.2*-0.1+0.1+0.2+0.2 | -1.1-1.8*+0.1+0.3+1.3 | -0.1-0.0+0.0+0.2+0.0 | |||||
| CurtinT vs AndrewsS | -0.2-0.2+0.1+0.2+0.2 | +0.4+0.4+0.2-1.2-0.4 | -0.1-0.1+0.0+0.3+0.1 | |||||
| PriceE vs HudsonB | +0.1+0.2+0.1*-0.1-0.2 | -0.5-1.1+0.1+0.5+0.5 | +0.1+0.2-0.0-0.1-0.1 | |||||
| BourkeR vs BrowneL | -1.4-2.2*-0.1+1.4+1.5 | +0.0+0.1*-0.0-0.0-0.0 | ||||||
| SamaK vs FreezeB | -0.9-1.9-0.2+0.9+1.1 | +0.1+0.1+0.0-0.1-0.1 | ||||||
| RizzoA vs ErnstS | -0.8-0.9-0.2+0.7+0.9 | |||||||
* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.
What If
Chances based on how well the GelfandJ finish out the regular season. Explain
| 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | |||||||||||||||||
| If finish: | Chance in | Rundle | Chance will finish regular season at seed | Rundle | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| TP | W | L | - | OT | T | playoffs | B | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | E | Count | |||||||
| 28 | 4 | 0 | - | 0 | 0 | 58.9 | % | No | 0 | 2 | 17 | 39 | 30 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | No | 199,013 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 27 | 3 | 0 | - | 0 | 1 | 19.1 | No | 0 | 0 | 2 | 17 | 35 | 31 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 0 | No | 173,781 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 26 | 3 | 1 | - | 0 | 0 | 2.3 | No | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 30 | 32 | 17 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | No | 703,255 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2 | 0 | - | 0 | 2 | 2.2 | No | 0 | 2 | 13 | 30 | 32 | 17 | 5 | 0 | 0 | No | 57,205 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 25 | 2 | 1 | - | 0 | 1 | 0.1 | No | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 27 | 34 | 21 | 6 | 1 | 0 | No | 461,747 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 3 | 0 | - | 1 | 0 | 0.1 | No | 0 | 3 | 13 | 31 | 32 | 16 | 4 | 0 | 0 | No | 89,943 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 1 | 0 | - | 0 | 3 | 0.0 | No | 0 | 1 | 10 | 29 | 34 | 20 | 6 | 1 | 0 | No | 8,406 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 24 | 2 | 2 | - | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | No | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 22 | 34 | 26 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | % | 937,529 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 1 | 1 | - | 0 | 2 | 0.0 | No | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 22 | 34 | 27 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 100,805 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2 | 0 | - | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | No | 0 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 27 | 34 | 21 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 58,876 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 0 | 0 | - | 0 | 4 | Out | No | 1 | 6 | 25 | 35 | 27 | 5 | 1 | No | 472 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 23 | 1 | 2 | - | 0 | 1 | Out | No | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 19 | 35 | 30 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 0.9 | 409,998 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2 | 1 | - | 1 | 0 | Out | No | 0 | 1 | 7 | 23 | 36 | 25 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0.4 | 238,987 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 1 | 0 | - | 1 | 2 | Out | No | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 24 | 37 | 24 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0.1 | 12,931 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 0 | 1 | - | 0 | 3 | Out | No | 1 | 5 | 20 | 36 | 29 | 8 | 1 | 0.6 | 7,375 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 22 | 1 | 3 | - | 0 | 0 | Out | No | 0 | 0 | 3 | 16 | 37 | 33 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10.2 | 554,598 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 1 | 1 | - | 1 | 1 | Out | No | 0 | 1 | 6 | 23 | 40 | 26 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5.3 | 105,163 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 0 | 2 | - | 0 | 2 | Out | No | 0 | 0 | 3 | 17 | 37 | 33 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9.9 | 44,887 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2 | 0 | - | 2 | 0 | Out | No | 0 | 1 | 7 | 26 | 41 | 22 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3.3 | 15,123 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 0 | 0 | - | 1 | 3 | Out | No | 1 | 6 | 23 | 39 | 26 | 5 | 0 | 5.3 | 931 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 21 | 1 | 2 | - | 1 | 0 | Out | No | 0 | 0 | 4 | 21 | 41 | 26 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 33.5 | 212,354 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 0 | 3 | - | 0 | 1 | Out | No | 0 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 37 | 32 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 45.1 | 121,377 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 0 | 1 | - | 1 | 2 | Out | No | 0 | 0 | 4 | 22 | 42 | 24 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 30.9 | 11,404 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 1 | 0 | - | 2 | 1 | Out | No | 0 | 1 | 6 | 26 | 45 | 19 | 3 | 0 | 22.1 | 6,702 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 20 | 0 | 4 | - | 0 | 0 | Out | No | 0 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 35 | 33 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 82.4 | 123,553 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 0 | 2 | - | 1 | 1 | Out | No | 0 | 0 | 4 | 22 | 38 | 27 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 73.5 | 46,206 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 1 | 1 | - | 2 | 0 | Out | No | 0 | 0 | 6 | 28 | 40 | 21 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 66.0 | 27,290 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 0 | 0 | - | 2 | 2 | Out | No | 0 | 6 | 32 | 38 | 20 | 4 | 0 | 61.9 | 716 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 19 | 0 | 3 | - | 1 | 0 | Out | No | 0 | 0 | 4 | 21 | 39 | 28 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 95.6 | 62,588 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 0 | 1 | - | 2 | 1 | Out | No | 0 | 0 | 9 | 27 | 38 | 21 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 91.1 | 6,095 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 1 | 0 | - | 3 | 0 | Out | No | 0 | 1 | 10 | 31 | 37 | 17 | 4 | 0 | 89.4 | 1,174 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 18 | 0 | 2 | - | 2 | 0 | Out | No | 1 | 6 | 27 | 41 | 21 | 5 | 0 | 99.5 | 12,105 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 0 | 0 | - | 3 | 1 | Out | No | 1 | 12 | 29 | 38 | 18 | 2 | 99.1 | 230 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 17 | 0 | 1 | - | 3 | 0 | Out | No | 0 | 1 | 8 | 33 | 38 | 17 | 3 | 99.9 | 1,064 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 16 | 0 | 0 | - | 4 | 0 | Out | No | 10 | 38 | 45 | 7 | Yes | 29 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Total: | 3.5 | % | No | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 10 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 13 | 10 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9.1 | % | 4,813,912 | ||||||||||||||||||||
Points
Chance Will Make Playoffs
Updated Tuesday, 2023-11-7 1:09 PM Eastern (GMT-05:00)
