Your team’s chances of making the playoffs

Ottawa Senators Playoff Chances 2015-2016 50/50

Did not play, playoff odds up 0.2 to 5.8%

61 points 26 26-9

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Tuesday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Devils 2 Oilers 3	+0.2
Panthers 2 Rangers 1			+0.0
Canadiens 4 Blackhawks 3			-0.1

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Wednesday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Senators vs Red Wings	+2.2+2.3+1.8-0.8-0.8-2.6		+0.4+0.4+0.3-0.1-0.1-0.5
Blue Jackets vs Wild	-0.3-0.3-0.2+0.2+0.1+0.3
Lightning vs Ducks	-0.3-0.2-0.2+0.2+0.1+0.3		-0.0-0.0-0.0+0.0*+0.0+0.1
Rangers vs Blackhawks	-0.2-0.2-0.0-0.0*-0.1+0.2		-0.0-0.0-0.0*-0.0+0.0+0.1
Penguins vs Flyers	-0.1-0.1-0.1+0.1+0.0+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Senators finish out the regular season. Explain

										100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Pres	Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Trophy	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Count

103		21	0		-	0	In		No	1	26	57	5	12												199
102		20	0		-	1	In		No			67	17	17												6
101		20	1		-	0	In		No		3	34	17	43		3										35	*
100		19	1		-	1	In		No		2	34	19	41	1	4										116	*
99		18	1		-	2	In		No	0	2	17	14	55	3	10										385	*
98		18	2		-	1	In		No		1	10	14	53	5	16	1									1,010	*
97		17	2		-	2	In		No		0	4	10	47	10	27	2									2,365	*
96		17	3		-	1	99.4	%	No			1	5	35	14	38	7	1	0							5,138	*
95		16	3		-	2	98.1		No		0	0	3	20	16	43	16	2	0							10,338	*
94		16	4		-	1	92.2		No			0	1	9	14	41	27	7	1	0	0					18,679	*
93		15	4		-	2	79.7		No				0	3	10	30	36	16	3	0	0					31,602	*
92		15	5		-	1	57.8		No				0	1	5	17	35	28	11	2	0	0				50,112	*
91		14	5		-	2	33.8		No				0	0	2	7	25	34	23	8	1	0				74,408	*
90		13	5		-	3	14.8		No				0	0	1	2	12	28	32	19	6	1	0	0		102,841	*
89		13	6		-	2	4.9		No						0	0	4	17	31	30	14	3	0	0		72,395
		12	5		-	4	4.4		No					0	0	0	4	16	31	31	15	3	0	0		62,013	*
88		12	6		-	3	0.9		No						0	0	1	6	20	34	28	10	1	0		76,386
		13	7		-	1	1.2		No						0	0	1	7	21	34	26	9	1	0		88,202	*
87		12	7		-	2	0.2		No						0	0	0	2	11	28	35	20	4	0		101,862
		11	6		-	4	0.2		No						0	0	0	2	10	27	36	21	4	0		91,834	*
86		11	7		-	3	0.0		No							0	0	0	3	15	34	34	12	1		133,237	*
		12	8		-	1	0.0		No						0	0	0	1	4	18	36	31	10	1		79,239
85		11	8		-	2	0.0		No								0	0	1	8	27	40	21	4	0	115,286
		10	7		-	4	0.0		No								0	0	1	7	26	40	22	4		106,554	*
84		10	8		-	3	Out		No									0	0	2	15	39	34	9	0	135,771	*
		11	9		-	1	Out		No									0	0	3	17	40	31	8		83,740	*
83		10	9		-	2	Out		No										0	1	8	32	42	17	0	106,564
		9	8		-	4	Out		No										0	1	7	31	43	18	0	100,976	*
82		9	9		-	3	Out		No										0	0	3	21	46	30	0	117,174	*
		10	10		-	1	Out		No									0	0	0	4	24	46	27	0	66,297
81		9	10		-	2	Out		No											0	1	13	43	42	0	80,986
		8	9		-	4	Out		No										0	0	1	12	43	43	0	75,821	*
80		8	10		-	3	Out		No											0	0	6	36	56	1	58,651
		9	11		-	1	Out		No											0	0	7	37	55	1	66,396	*
79		8	11		-	2	Out		No												0	3	28	67	2	95,686	*
78		7	11		-	3	Out		No												0	1	19	75	5	69,647	*
77		7	12		-	2	Out		No													0	12	79	8	47,640	*
76		6	12		-	3	Out		No													0	7	79	14	30,882	*
75		6	13		-	2	Out		No													0	4	76	20	18,886	*
74		5	13		-	3	Out		No														2	70	28	10,835	*
73		5	14		-	2	Out		No													0	1	62	37	6,034	*
72		5	15		-	1	Out		No														0	54	46	2,992	*
71		4	15		-	2	Out		No														0	46	54	1,425	*
70		4	16		-	1	Out		No														0	34	66	647	*
69		3	16		-	2	Out		No															29	71	293	*
68		3	17		-	1	Out		No															16	84	110	*
67		2	17		-	2	Out		No															22	78	32	*
66		2	18		-	1	Out		No															13	88	8	*
64	-65						Out		No																100	6	*
61		0	21		-	0	Out		No															1	99	199

Total:							5.8	%	No	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	3	5	7	10	14	18	20	19	1	2,401,940

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Tuesday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Canadiens 4 Blackhawks 3	+0.1
Panthers 2 Rangers 1	-0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Wednesday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Senators vs Red Wings	-0.6-0.6-0.5+0.1+0.1+0.7
Rangers vs Blackhawks	+0.1+0.0+0.0*+0.0-0.0-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

103		21	0		-	0		1		26	7	50	3	2	11	2
102		20	0		-	1						67		17	17
101		20	1		-	0				3		34	9	9	34	9			3
100		19	1		-	1				2		34	2	17	22	18	1		4
99		18	1		-	2		0		2		17	2	12	24	31	3		9	1
98		18	2		-	1				1		10	1	13	17	37	5		13	3	1
97		17	2		-	2				0	0	4	0	9	8	39	9	0	20	7	2
96		17	3		-	1						1	0	5	4	31	13	1	24	14	7		1	0
95		16	3		-	2				0		0	0	3	1	19	14	2	22	21	16	0	2	0
94		16	4		-	1						0		1	0	9	11	3	16	25	27	0	7	1	0	0
93		15	4		-	2								0	0	3	7	3	9	21	36	0	16	3	0	0
92		15	5		-	1								0	0	1	3	2	3	14	34	1	28	11	2	0	0
91		14	5		-	2								0		0	1	1	1	6	23	2	34	23	8	1	0
90		13	5		-	3								0		0	0	0	0	2	10	2	28	32	19	6	1	0	0
89		13	6		-	2											0	0	0	0	3	1	17	31	30	14	3	0	0
		12	5		-	4										0	0	0	0	0	3	1	15	30	31	16	3	0	0
88		12	6		-	3											0	0	0	0	0	0	6	20	33	28	11	1	0	0
		13	7		-	1											0	0		0	1	0	7	21	33	27	10	1	0	0
87		12	7		-	2											0	0		0	0	0	2	10	27	35	21	5	0	0
		11	6		-	4												0		0	0	0	1	8	24	36	24	6	1	0
86		11	7		-	3														0	0	0	0	3	13	31	34	16	3	0	0
		12	8		-	1												0		0	0	0	0	4	16	33	32	13	2	0	0
85		11	8		-	2																0	0	1	6	21	37	26	9	1	0	0
		10	7		-	4																0	0	1	5	20	36	28	10	1	0	0
84		10	8		-	3																	0	0	1	9	27	36	21	5	1	0
		11	9		-	1																	0	0	2	10	29	35	20	5	1	0
83		10	9		-	2																		0	0	3	16	33	31	14	2	0	0
		9	8		-	4																		0	0	3	15	32	32	15	3	0	0
82		9	9		-	3																			0	1	5	20	35	28	9	1	0	0
		10	10		-	1																		0	0	1	7	23	35	24	7	1	0
81		9	10		-	2																			0	0	2	11	28	35	19	4	0	0
		8	9		-	4																			0	0	2	10	27	36	20	5	1	0
80		8	10		-	3																				0	0	3	16	34	31	13	2	0	0
		9	11		-	1																				0	0	4	17	34	30	12	2	0	0
79		8	11		-	2																				0	0	1	7	24	36	23	7	1	0	0
78		7	11		-	3																					0	0	2	13	31	33	16	4	0	0
77		7	12		-	2																					0	0	0	5	21	35	27	10	1	0
76		6	12		-	3																							0	2	10	28	35	20	5	0
75		6	13		-	2																								0	4	18	34	31	12	1
74		5	13		-	3																								0	1	9	27	37	22	4
73		5	14		-	2																								0	0	3	18	36	33	10
72		5	15		-	1																										1	9	31	40	20
71		4	15		-	2																										0	3	21	46	29
70		4	16		-	1																										0	2	12	43	43
69		3	16		-	2																											0	5	39	56
68		3	17		-	1																												4	29	67
67		2	17		-	2																													25	75
66		2	18		-	1																													13	88
64	-65																																			100
61		0	21		-	0																													1	99

Total:								0		0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	3	0	5	7	9	12	13	13	11	9	7	4	2	1	0	0