Pittsburgh Penguins Playoff Chances 2015-2016 50/50

Did not play, playoff odds up 0.6 to 91.1%

73 points 34 22-5

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Tuesday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Devils 2 Oilers 3	+0.3		+0.1
Panthers 2 Rangers 1	+0.2
Coyotes 2 Bruins 3			-0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Wednesday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Penguins vs Flyers	+3.0+3.1+2.5-0.3-0.2-3.8		+0.3+0.3+0.3-0.1-0.1-0.4
Blue Jackets vs Wild	-0.4-0.3-0.4+0.0+0.1+0.5		-0.1-0.0-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.1
Rangers vs Blackhawks	-0.4-0.3-0.3+0.1+0.2+0.4
Lightning vs Ducks	-0.3-0.2-0.3+0.1-0.0+0.4
Senators vs Red Wings	-0.1-0.1-0.0-0.0-0.0+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Penguins finish out the regular season. Explain

										100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:						Chance in		Pres		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP	W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Trophy		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Count

115	21	0		-	0	In		54.7	%	87	2	10														201
114	20	0		-	1	In		33.3		67	11	22														9
113	20	1		-	0	In		13.9		69	11	19														36	*
112	19	1		-	1	In		13.7		63	12	25														95	*
111	18	1		-	2	In		4.1		49	14	37														338	*
110	18	2		-	1	In		2.0		37	16	47														920	*
109	17	2		-	2	In		0.5		25	17	57	0													2,357	*
108	17	3		-	1	In		0.2		17	17	65	0													5,006	*
107	16	3		-	2	In		0.0		10	15	74	1	0												10,297	*
106	16	4		-	1	In		No		6	12	79	3	0												18,757	*
105	15	4		-	2	In		0.0		3	9	82	6	0												31,704	*
104	15	5		-	1	In		No		1	7	81	11	1												49,561	*
103	14	5		-	2	In		No		0	4	76	18	1	0											74,421	*
102	13	5		-	3	In		No		0	3	68	27	2	0	0										102,682	*
101	13	6		-	2	In		No		0	1	57	38	4	0	0										72,635
	12	5		-	4	In		No		0	1	55	38	5	0	0										62,145	*
100	12	6		-	3	In		No		0	1	42	48	8	0	0										77,034
	13	7		-	1	In		No		0	1	43	48	8	0	0										87,906	*
99	12	7		-	2	In		No			0	30	56	12	1	0	0									101,956
	11	6		-	4	In		No		0	0	29	57	13	1	0										90,981	*
98	11	7		-	3	In		No			0	17	60	18	3	1	0									99,000
	12	8		-	1	In		No			0	18	60	17	3	1	0									112,448	*
97	11	8		-	2	100.0	%	No			0	9	59	22	8	2	0	0								115,543
	10	7		-	4	In		No			0	9	58	22	9	3	0									107,136	*
96	10	8		-	3	100.0		No			0	4	50	23	17	6	0	0								103,358
	11	9		-	1	100.0		No			0	4	51	23	17	5	0	0								115,904	*
95	10	9		-	2	99.9		No			0	1	40	20	27	10	2	0	0							106,640
	9	8		-	4	99.8		No			0	1	38	19	28	11	2	0	0							100,428	*
94	9	9		-	3	98.9		No			0	0	26	13	37	17	6	1	0	0						86,270
	10	10		-	1	98.9		No			0	0	27	13	37	16	6	1	0	0						97,137	*
93	9	10		-	2	95.4		No			0	0	16	7	40	19	13	4	1	0						81,071
	8	9		-	4	94.5		No				0	15	6	39	20	15	5	1	0	0					76,207	*
92	8	10		-	3	83.7		No					7	2	33	17	23	13	3	0	0					61,405	*
	9	11		-	1	84.8		No				0	8	3	35	17	22	12	3	0	0					64,498	*
91	8	11		-	2	65.2		No					3	1	24	11	26	23	10	2	0	0				96,417	*
90	7	11		-	3	40.6		No					1	0	14	5	20	30	21	7	1	0	0			69,255	*
89	7	12		-	2	19.6		No					0	0	6	2	11	27	31	17	5	0	0			47,768	*
88	6	12		-	3	7.2		No					0		3	0	4	17	32	29	12	2	0			30,903	*
87	6	13		-	2	1.8		No							1	0	1	7	22	35	25	7	1	0		18,869	*
86	5	13		-	3	0.3		No							0		0	2	12	30	34	17	3	0		10,857	*
85	5	14		-	2	0.0		No							0		0	1	5	20	36	28	9	1		5,976	*
84	5	15		-	1	Out		No										0	1	9	30	36	19	4		3,030	*
83	4	15		-	2	Out		No											0	3	19	40	30	8		1,484	*
82	4	16		-	1	Out		No												2	11	30	39	17	0	679	*
81	3	16		-	2	Out		No													3	22	44	31	0	280	*
80	3	17		-	1	Out		No													1	12	34	53		94	*
79	2	17		-	2	Out		No														4	39	54	4	28	*
78	2	18		-	1	Out		No															14	79	7	14	*
76	1	19		-	1	Out		No																100		1
73	0	21		-	0	Out		No															1	53	46	199

Total:						91.1	%	0.0	%	0	1	20	34	11	14	6	5	4	2	1	1	0	0	0	0	2,401,940

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Tuesday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Devils 2 Oilers 3	-0.2
Coyotes 2 Bruins 3	+0.0
Panthers 2 Rangers 1	-0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Wednesday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Penguins vs Flyers	-0.6-0.6-0.5+0.1+0.1+0.8
Blue Jackets vs Wild	+0.1+0.1+0.1-0.0-0.0-0.1
Rangers vs Blackhawks	+0.0+0.0+0.0-0.0*-0.0-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

						100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:						Chance will finish season at seed
TP	W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

115	21	0		-	0	55	32	2		10
114	20	0		-	1	33	33		11	22
113	20	1		-	0	14	56	11		19
112	19	1		-	1	14	49	9	2	23	2
111	18	1		-	2	4	45	8	6	34	3
110	18	2		-	1	2	35	9	7	37	10
109	17	2		-	2	0	25	8	10	39	18	0
108	17	3		-	1	0	17	6	12	37	28	0
107	16	3		-	2	0	10	3	12	32	42	1	0	0
106	16	4		-	1		6	2	10	25	54	3	0	0
105	15	4		-	2	0	3	1	9	18	64	5	1	0	0
104	15	5		-	1		1	0	6	10	70	8	3	1	0
103	14	5		-	2		0	0	4	5	71	10	8	1	0	0
102	13	5		-	3		0	0	3	2	65	12	15	2	0	0		0
101	13	6		-	2		0	0	1	1	56	13	25	3	1	0		0
	12	5		-	4		0	0	1	1	55	13	26	3	1	0		0
100	12	6		-	3		0	0	1	0	41	11	37	5	4	0		0	0
	13	7		-	1		0	0	1	0	44	12	35	4	3	0	0	0	0
99	12	7		-	2				0	0	30	9	47	5	6	1	0	0	0	0
	11	6		-	4		0		0	0	28	9	48	5	8	1	0	0	0
98	11	7		-	3				0	0	17	6	54	5	13	3	0	1	0	0
	12	8		-	1				0	0	18	6	54	6	12	3	0	1	0	0
97	11	8		-	2				0	0	9	4	55	4	17	7	0	2	0	0		0
	10	7		-	4				0	0	9	4	54	4	18	8	0	2	1	0
96	10	8		-	3				0		4	2	48	2	21	16	1	4	2	0		0
	11	9		-	1				0		4	2	49	3	20	15	1	3	2	0		0
95	10	9		-	2				0		1	1	39	1	19	24	3	5	4	2	0	0	0
	9	8		-	4				0		1	1	37	1	18	25	4	6	5	2	0	0	0
94	9	9		-	3				0		0	0	25	0	13	30	7	7	10	6	0	1	0	0
	10	10		-	1				0		0	0	27	0	13	30	7	6	9	6	0	1	0	0
93	9	10		-	2				0		0	0	16	0	7	29	11	6	14	13	0	4	1	0
	8	9		-	4						0	0	15	0	6	27	12	5	14	15	0	5	1	0	0
92	8	10		-	3							0	7	0	2	20	14	3	14	23	1	13	3	0	0
	9	11		-	1						0	0	8	0	2	21	13	3	14	22	1	12	3	0	0
91	8	11		-	2							0	3		1	12	13	1	10	24	2	23	10	2	0	0
90	7	11		-	3								1		0	5	9	0	5	17	3	30	21	7	1	0	0
89	7	12		-	2								0		0	2	5	0	2	8	3	27	31	17	5	1	0
88	6	12		-	3								0			1	2	0	0	2	2	16	31	29	13	3	0	0
87	6	13		-	2											0	1		0	0	1	7	21	35	26	9	1	0
86	5	13		-	3											0	0			0	0	2	11	27	34	20	5	1	0
85	5	14		-	2												0			0		1	3	15	32	31	14	3	0
84	5	15		-	1																		1	6	21	33	26	11	2	0	0
83	4	15		-	2																		0	1	9	28	35	20	6	1
82	4	16		-	1																			0	5	15	27	30	19	4	0
81	3	16		-	2																				0	6	15	34	32	11	1	0
80	3	17		-	1																					3	2	17	38	27	11	2
79	2	17		-	2																						4	11	18	46	18	4
78	2	18		-	1																								7	29	57		7
76	1	19		-	1																									100
73	0	21		-	0																										4	20	32	36	9

Total:						0	0	0	1	1	19	4	30	2	9	10	3	2	4	4	0	4	2	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0