Your team’s chances of making the playoffs

Tampa Bay Lightning Playoff Chances 2015-2016 50/50

Did not play, playoff odds up 0.6 to 28.2%

64 points 28 24-8

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Tuesday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Devils 2 Oilers 3	+0.6
Coyotes 2 Bruins 3	*-0.2
Maple Leafs 4 Sabres 2	*+0.2

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Wednesday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Lightning vs Ducks	+6.5+6.4+5.0-1.7-1.9-7.7		+0.5+0.5+0.4-0.1-0.1-0.6
Blue Jackets vs Wild	-0.8-0.8-0.7-0.0+0.0+1.0		-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.0*+0.0+0.1
Rangers vs Blackhawks	-0.6-0.8-0.4+0.1+0.2+0.7		-0.1-0.1-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.1
Senators vs Red Wings	-0.3-0.4-0.0+0.2*+0.2+0.3		-0.0-0.1-0.0+0.0*+0.0+0.1
Penguins vs Flyers	-0.2-0.4-0.3-0.0*-0.1+0.4

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Lightning finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Pres		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Trophy		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Count

108		22	0		-	0	In		1.0	%	21	28	51														200
107		21	0		-	1	In		No		50	50															2
106		21	1		-	0	In		No		15	23	62														13	*
105		20	1		-	1	In		No		2	25	72		2												61	*
104		19	1		-	2	In		No		2	13	74	4	7												210	*
103		19	2		-	1	In		No		0	10	73	5	11		0										604	*
102		18	2		-	2	In		No		0	7	61	12	20		0										1,523	*
101		18	3		-	1	In		No			4	51	14	30	0	2										3,142	*
100		17	3		-	2	In		No			2	36	17	40	1	4	0									6,537	*
99		17	4		-	1	In		No		0	1	22	18	49	2	7	0									12,381	*
98		16	4		-	2	In		No			0	12	16	51	5	15	1									22,004	*
97		15	4		-	3	100.0	%	No			0	5	12	47	10	24	2	0								35,825	*
96		15	5		-	2	99.7		No			0	1	7	34	15	35	6	0	0							55,163	*
95		14	5		-	3	98.5		No			0	0	4	21	18	42	14	1	0	0						79,181	*
94		14	6		-	2	94.2		No				0	1	9	17	42	25	5	1	0	0					107,569	*
93		13	6		-	3	83.0		No				0	0	3	12	32	35	14	3	0	0					137,312	*
92		13	7		-	2	65.4		No					0	1	7	20	37	25	8	1	0	0				86,049
		12	6		-	4	62.4		No					0	1	6	19	36	27	9	2	0	0				81,180	*
91		12	7		-	3	39.5		No					0	0	3	9	28	34	20	6	1	0				90,815
		13	8		-	1	41.0		No					0	0	3	9	29	34	19	5	1	0				100,847	*
90		12	8		-	2	21.1		No					0	0	1	3	17	32	30	13	3	0	0			105,407
		11	7		-	4	18.7		No						0	1	3	15	31	31	15	3	0	0			104,056	*
89		11	8		-	3	7.0		No					0		0	1	6	21	34	27	9	1	0	0		104,052
		12	9		-	1	7.6		No						0	0	1	7	22	34	26	9	1	0	0		113,910	*
88		11	9		-	2	2.1		No							0	0	2	11	28	35	19	4	0	0		106,682
		10	8		-	4	1.7		No							0	0	2	10	26	35	21	5	1	0		107,914	*
87		10	9		-	3	0.3		No							0	0	0	3	15	33	32	13	2	0		95,384
		11	10		-	1	0.5		No							0	0	0	4	16	34	31	12	2	0		104,937	*
86		10	10		-	2	0.1		No							0	0	0	1	7	26	37	23	6	0		89,189
		9	9		-	4	0.0		No							0		0	1	6	23	37	25	7	1		90,480	*
85		9	10		-	3	0.0		No									0	0	2	13	33	35	15	2		71,512
		10	11		-	1	0.0		No									0	0	3	14	33	34	14	2		79,695	*
84		9	11		-	2	Out		No										0	1	6	24	38	25	6	0	123,365	*
83		8	11		-	3	Out		No										0	0	2	14	36	36	13	0	93,110	*
82		8	12		-	2	Out		No											0	1	7	27	43	23	0	68,460	*
81		7	12		-	3	Out		No											0	0	3	17	44	36	0	47,737	*
80		7	13		-	2	Out		No												0	1	10	39	49	1	31,367	*
79		6	13		-	3	Out		No													0	5	31	62	2	19,521	*
78		6	14		-	2	Out		No													0	2	21	71	5	11,378	*
77		5	14		-	3	Out		No														1	14	76	9	6,605	*
76		5	15		-	2	Out		No														0	8	76	16	3,450	*
75		4	15		-	3	Out		No														0	5	74	21	1,622	*
74		4	16		-	2	Out		No															1	68	31	779	*
73		4	17		-	1	Out		No															1	55	44	305	*
72		3	17		-	2	Out		No																44	56	133	*
71		3	18		-	1	Out		No																42	58	48	*
70		2	18		-	2	Out		No																38	63	16	*
69		2	19		-	1	Out		No																80	20	5	*
67	-68						Out		No																	100	4	*
64		0	22		-	0	Out		No																4	96	199

Total:							28.2	%	0.0	%	0	0	1	1	4	3	9	11	12	13	13	12	10	7	4	0	2,401,940

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Tuesday	None

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Wednesday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Lightning vs Ducks	-0.7-0.7-0.6+0.2+0.2+0.9
Rangers vs Blackhawks	+0.1+0.1+0.0-0.0-0.0-0.1
Blue Jackets vs Wild	+0.0+0.0+0.1*+0.0+0.0-0.1
Senators vs Red Wings	+0.0+0.1+0.0-0.0*-0.0-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

108		22	0		-	0	1	20	18	11	29	23
107		21	0		-	1		50		50
106		21	1		-	0		15	8	15	38	23
105		20	1		-	1		2	3	21	13	59			2
104		19	1		-	2		2	1	12	7	67	2	2	5	2
103		19	2		-	1		0	0	10	3	69	4	2	10	1			0
102		18	2		-	2		0		7	1	60	5	6	15	6			0
101		18	3		-	1				4	1	50	4	10	17	12	0		2
100		17	3		-	2				2	0	36	3	14	19	21	1		4	0	0
99		17	4		-	1		0		1	0	22	3	16	18	31	2	0	7	1	0
98		16	4		-	2				0		12	1	14	12	39	5	0	12	3	1
97		15	4		-	3				0		5	0	12	7	40	10	0	17	7	2		0
96		15	5		-	2				0		1	0	7	3	31	14	1	21	14	6		0	0
95		14	5		-	3				0		0	0	3	1	20	16	2	20	22	14	0	1	0	0
94		14	6		-	2						0	0	1	0	9	13	4	16	26	25	0	5	1	0	0
93		13	6		-	3						0	0	0	0	3	8	4	9	24	34	1	14	3	0	0
92		13	7		-	2								0	0	1	4	3	3	16	35	1	26	9	1	0	0
91		12	7		-	3								0		0	1	2	1	7	25	3	34	21	6	1	0
		13	8		-	1								0	0	0	2	2	1	9	28	3	33	18	4	1	0
90		12	8		-	2								0		0	0	1	0	3	14	3	32	30	14	3	0	0
		11	7		-	4										0	0	1	0	3	12	3	31	31	15	3	0	0
89		11	8		-	3								0			0	0	0	1	4	2	21	34	27	10	1	0	0
		12	9		-	1										0	0	0	0	1	5	2	21	34	26	9	1	0	0
88		11	9		-	2											0	0		0	1	1	10	27	35	20	5	1	0	0
		10	8		-	4											0	0	0	0	1	1	8	25	35	23	6	1	0	0
87		10	9		-	3											0	0		0	0	0	3	13	31	33	16	3	0	0
		11	10		-	1											0	0		0	0	0	4	17	34	30	12	2	0
86		10	10		-	2												0		0	0	0	1	6	22	35	26	8	1	0	0
		9	9		-	4												0			0	0	1	5	20	35	28	10	2	0	0
85		9	10		-	3																0	0	1	9	26	35	21	6	1	0	0
		10	11		-	1															0	0	0	2	10	28	34	20	6	1	0
84		9	11		-	2																	0	0	3	16	32	31	14	3	0	0
		8	10		-	4																	0	0	3	14	30	32	16	4	0	0
83		8	11		-	3																		0	1	6	20	34	27	11	2	0	0
82		8	12		-	2																		0	0	2	9	25	34	22	7	1	0	0
81		7	12		-	3																			0	0	3	13	30	32	17	4	0	0	0
80		7	13		-	2																				0	1	5	19	33	29	12	2	0	0
79		6	13		-	3																					0	1	8	25	35	23	7	1	0
78		6	14		-	2																					0	0	3	13	30	32	17	4	0	0
77		5	14		-	3																						0	1	6	20	34	27	11	2	0
76		5	15		-	2																							0	2	9	27	35	21	6	1
75		4	15		-	3																							0	0	3	16	33	31	14	2
74		4	16		-	2																									1	7	23	39	24	6
73		4	17		-	1																										2	13	35	39	10
72		3	17		-	2																											5	27	47	22
71		3	18		-	1																											2	17	50	31
70		2	18		-	2																												6	44	50
69		2	19		-	1																													80	20
67	-68																																			100
64		0	22		-	0																													4	96

Total:							0	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	3	3	1	3	6	10	1	11	12	12	11	9	6	4	3	1	1	0	0	0	0