Washington Capitals Playoff Chances 2015-2016 50/50

Did not play, playoff odds up 0.1 to 1.4%

61 points 26 28-9

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Tuesday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Devils 2 Oilers 3	+0.1
Canadiens 4 Blackhawks 3			-0.1

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Wednesday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Blue Jackets vs Wild	-0.1-0.1-0.1+0.0+0.1+0.1
Lightning vs Ducks	-0.1-0.1-0.1+0.1-0.0+0.1
Rangers vs Blackhawks	-0.1-0.1-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.1
Senators vs Red Wings			-0.1-0.1-0.0+0.0*+0.0+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Capitals finish out the regular season. Explain

										100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Pres	Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Trophy	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Count

99		19	0		-	0	In		No		1	28	44	23	2	1										205
98		18	0		-	1	In		No			5	45	40	10											20
97		18	1		-	0	In		No			3	32	38	10	16	1									116	*
96		17	1		-	1	99.4	%	No			3	22	27	24	20	4	1								357	*
95		16	1		-	2	97.9		No			0	15	18	32	25	9	2								1,115	*
94		16	2		-	1	93.0		No			0	7	9	30	29	18	6	1	0						2,634	*
93		15	2		-	2	80.0		No				3	3	22	23	29	15	4	1						6,358	*
92		15	3		-	1	59.1		No				1	0	13	14	31	26	12	3	0	0	0			12,519	*
91		14	3		-	2	33.3		No				0	0	6	6	21	32	24	9	2	0				23,578	*
90		14	4		-	1	14.5		No				0	0	2	2	10	26	31	21	7	1	0			39,079	*
89		13	4		-	2	4.6		No				0		1	0	4	14	29	31	16	4	0	0		63,342	*
88		13	5		-	1	1.0		No						0	0	1	6	20	33	28	11	2	0		52,653	*
		12	4		-	3	0.9		No				0		0	0	1	5	18	32	29	12	2	0		38,172
87		12	5		-	2	0.2		No						0		0	2	9	25	35	23	6	1		71,063
		11	4		-	4	0.1		No						0	0	0	2	9	24	35	23	6	0		55,025	*
86		12	6		-	1	0.0		No						0		0	0	3	15	33	33	13	2		73,636
		11	5		-	3	0.0		No						0		0	0	3	13	32	35	16	2		85,820	*
85		11	6		-	2	0.0		No								0	0	1	6	23	39	26	5		107,607
		10	5		-	4	Out		No									0	1	5	21	39	28	6		46,497
		12	7		-	0	Out		No									0	1	7	24	39	25	5	0	39,056	*
84		10	6		-	3	Out		No									0	0	2	12	35	38	13	0	96,516
		11	7		-	1	Out		No									0	0	2	13	35	37	12	0	120,351	*
83		10	7		-	2	Out		No										0	1	6	26	45	23	0	128,053
		9	6		-	4	Out		No										0	0	5	24	45	25	0	67,072	*
		11	8		-	0	Out		No									0	0	1	7	28	44	21	0	37,234
82		9	7		-	3	Out		No										0	0	2	16	45	37	0	103,973
		10	8		-	1	Out		No										0	0	2	17	45	36	0	127,530	*
81		9	8		-	2	Out		No											0	1	9	40	50	1	120,865
		8	7		-	4	Out		No											0	1	8	39	51	1	56,961
		10	9		-	0	Out		No											0	1	10	40	49	0	43,158	*
80		8	8		-	3	Out		No											0	0	4	31	63	2	88,718
		9	9		-	1	Out		No											0	0	4	32	62	1	107,758	*
79		8	9		-	2	Out		No												0	2	22	73	3	91,652
		7	8		-	4	Out		No											0	0	2	22	73	3	76,057	*
78		7	9		-	3	Out		No												0	1	14	79	6	59,223
		8	10		-	1	Out		No												0	1	15	79	6	72,366	*
77		7	10		-	2	Out		No													0	9	80	11	54,928
		6	9		-	4	Out		No													0	9	80	11	44,984	*
76		6	10		-	3	Out		No													0	5	78	17	71,070	*
75		6	11		-	2	Out		No													0	2	72	25	47,992	*
74		6	12		-	1	Out		No														1	65	34	29,802	*
73		5	12		-	2	Out		No														0	54	45	17,603	*
72		5	13		-	1	Out		No														0	44	56	9,671	*
71		4	13		-	2	Out		No														0	33	67	5,168	*
70		4	14		-	1	Out		No															27	73	2,429	*
69		3	14		-	2	Out		No															18	82	1,081	*
68		3	15		-	1	Out		No															13	87	429	*
67		2	15		-	2	Out		No															6	94	170	*
66		2	16		-	1	Out		No															2	98	49	*
61	-65						Out		No																100	225	*

Total:							1.4	%	No		0	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	3	5	9	16	25	35	3	2,401,940

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Tuesday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Canadiens 4 Blackhawks 3	+0.1

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Wednesday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Senators vs Red Wings	+0.1+0.1+0.0-0.0-0.0-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

99		19	0		-	0				1		28	9	35	12	11	2		1
98		18	0		-	1						5	5	40	5	35	10
97		18	1		-	0						3	3	29	8	30	9	1	12	3	1
96		17	1		-	1						3	1	21	4	23	22	2	12	7	4		1
95		16	1		-	2						0	0	15	1	16	28	4	11	14	9		2
94		16	2		-	1						0		7	0	8	23	6	11	18	18		6	1	0
93		15	2		-	2								3		3	15	7	7	17	29	0	15	4	1
92		15	3		-	1								1		0	8	5	2	12	29	1	26	12	3	0	0	0
91		14	3		-	2								0		0	3	3	1	5	19	2	32	24	9	2	0
90		14	4		-	1								0		0	1	2	0	2	9	2	26	31	21	7	1	0
89		13	4		-	2								0			0	1	0	0	3	1	14	29	31	17	4	0	0
88		13	5		-	1											0	0	0	0	0	0	6	20	32	28	11	2	0
		12	4		-	3								0			0	0		0	0	0	5	17	31	30	13	2	0
87		12	5		-	2											0	0			0	0	1	8	23	34	25	7	1	0	0
		11	4		-	4											0	0		0	0	0	1	8	23	35	25	8	1	0
86		12	6		-	1											0	0			0	0	0	3	13	30	34	16	3	0	0
		11	5		-	3												0			0	0	0	2	11	28	35	19	4	0	0
85		11	6		-	2																0	0	0	4	18	35	30	11	2	0	0
		10	5		-	4																	0	0	3	16	34	32	13	2	0	0
		12	7		-	0																	0	1	5	19	35	29	10	1	0	0
84		10	6		-	3																	0	0	1	7	24	37	24	7	1	0	0
		11	7		-	1																	0	0	1	8	25	37	23	6	1	0
83		10	7		-	2																		0	0	2	13	32	34	16	3	0	0
		9	6		-	4																		0	0	2	11	30	35	18	4	0	0	0
		11	8		-	0																	0	0	0	3	15	33	33	13	2	0	0
82		9	7		-	3																			0	0	4	19	35	29	11	2	0	0
		10	8		-	1																			0	0	5	20	36	28	9	1	0
81		9	8		-	2																			0	0	1	9	28	36	20	5	1	0
		8	7		-	4																				0	1	8	26	36	23	6	1	0	0
		10	9		-	0																				0	2	10	29	35	19	5	1	0
80		8	8		-	3																				0	0	3	14	33	32	15	3	0	0
		9	9		-	1																				0	0	3	16	34	31	13	3	0	0
79		8	9		-	2																				0	0	1	6	23	36	25	8	1	0	0
		7	8		-	4																					0	0	5	21	35	27	10	2	0	0
		9	10		-	0																					0	1	7	24	35	24	8	1	0
78		7	9		-	3																				0	0	0	2	11	29	34	19	5	1	0
		8	10		-	1																					0	0	2	12	30	33	17	4	0	0
77		7	10		-	2																						0	0	4	18	34	29	12	2	0
76		6	10		-	3																						0	0	1	9	26	35	22	6	1
75		6	11		-	2																							0	0	3	15	32	33	15	2
74		6	12		-	1																								0	1	7	23	37	26	6
73		5	12		-	2																									0	2	13	34	37	13
72		5	13		-	1																										1	6	24	44	25
71		4	13		-	2																										0	2	16	42	40
70		4	14		-	1																										0	1	9	37	53
69		3	14		-	2																												4	28	68
68		3	15		-	1																												2	21	77
67		2	15		-	2																												1	12	87
66		2	16		-	1																													2	98
61	-65																																			100

Total:										0		0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	2	3	5	8	11	14	14	13	11	8	5	3	1	1