Vancouver Canucks Playoff Chances 2015-2016 50/50

Lost to Sharks 3-5, playoff odds down 8.3 to 32.2%

61 points 28 29-5

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Tuesday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Sharks 5 Canucks 3	-8.4		-0.3

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Wednesday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Oilers vs Jets	+1.7+0.2+0.0-1.2-1.4-1.3
Lightning vs Ducks	+0.4+0.0+0.1*-0.2-0.4-0.3
Blue Jackets vs Wild	+0.3+0.1+0.2-0.3-0.2-0.3
Kings vs Islanders	-0.3-0.1+0.1-0.1+0.1+0.3

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

Chances based on how well the Canucks finish out the regular season. Explain

										100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Pres	Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Trophy	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Count

101		20	0		-	0	In		No			8	8	70	0	13	0									202
100		19	0		-	1	In		No					75		25										8
99		18	0		-	2	In		No				1	55		40	3									67	*
98		18	1		-	1	In		No				1	42	2	48	9									197	*
97		17	1		-	2	In		No				0	29	1	54	16									637	*
96		17	2		-	1	In		No				0	17	2	55	26									1,637	*
95		16	2		-	2	99.9	%	No				0	10	2	52	36	0								3,953	*
94		16	3		-	1	99.9		No				0	5	1	45	49	0								7,870	*
93		15	3		-	2	99.4		No					2	1	36	61	1								15,866	*
92		15	4		-	1	98.4		No					1	1	26	71	2								27,318	*
91		14	4		-	2	96.3		No					0	0	18	78	4								44,804	*
90		14	5		-	1	92.2		No					0	0	11	81	8	0							68,256	*
89		13	5		-	2	86.1		No					0	0	7	79	14	0							54,942
		12	4		-	4	85.4		No					0	0	7	79	15	0							43,458	*
88		12	5		-	3	75.6		No						0	3	72	24	0	0						72,394	*
		13	6		-	1	78.1		No					0	0	4	74	22	0	0						56,940
87		12	6		-	2	66.0		No						0	2	64	33	1	0						90,027
		11	5		-	4	64.9		No						0	2	63	34	1	0						73,822	*
86		11	6		-	3	51.5		No							1	51	46	2	0						112,200	*
		12	7		-	1	54.8		No						0	1	54	43	2	0	0					80,019
85		11	7		-	2	40.1		No							0	40	55	5	0	0					116,295
		10	6		-	4	39.0		No						0	0	39	56	5	0	0					99,268	*
84		10	7		-	3	26.6		No							0	27	63	10	0	0					104,689
		11	8		-	1	27.6		No							0	28	62	10	0	0					121,486	*
83		10	8		-	2	17.3		No							0	17	64	17	2	0					120,691
		9	7		-	4	16.4		No							0	16	64	18	2	0					105,630	*
82		9	8		-	3	8.8		No							0	9	59	28	4	0	0				98,561
		10	9		-	1	9.5		No							0	10	58	28	4	0	0				113,861	*
81		9	9		-	2	4.7		No							0	5	48	37	9	1	0				127,576	*
		8	8		-	4	3.9		No							0	4	47	38	10	1	0	0			63,697	*
80		8	9		-	3	1.6		No								2	34	43	18	3	0	0			74,432
		9	10		-	1	1.8		No								2	34	42	18	3	0				86,510	*
79		8	10		-	2	0.6		No								1	22	42	27	7	1	0			68,736
		7	9		-	4	0.5		No								1	21	41	28	8	1	0			60,420	*
78		7	10		-	3	0.2		No								0	11	34	36	16	3	0			44,889
		8	11		-	1	0.2		No								0	12	34	36	16	3	0			52,683	*
77		7	11		-	2	0.0		No								0	5	24	38	25	7	1			70,642	*
76		6	11		-	3	0.0		No								0	2	13	34	35	14	2			47,168	*
75		6	12		-	2	0.0		No								0	1	7	24	38	25	5			30,602	*
74		5	12		-	3	Out		No									0	3	15	36	35	11			18,356	*
73		5	13		-	2	Out		No									0	1	8	28	43	20			10,533	*
72		5	14		-	1	Out		No									0	0	3	19	45	32			5,470	*
71		4	14		-	2	Out		No											1	11	39	48			2,739	*
70		4	15		-	1	Out		No											0	6	33	61			1,272	*
69		3	15		-	2	Out		No												2	26	72			570	*
68		3	16		-	1	Out		No													19	81			214	*
67		2	16		-	2	Out		No													9	91			103	*
66		2	17		-	1	Out		No													5	95			22	*
63	-65						Out		No														100			9	*
61		0	20		-	0	Out		No													1	99			199

Total:							32.2	%	No			0	0	0	0	2	30	38	16	8	4	2	1			2,401,940

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Tuesday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Sharks 5 Canucks 3	+0.9
Canadiens 4 Blackhawks 3	+0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Wednesday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Oilers vs Jets	-0.1-0.0*-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

101		20	0		-	0					4	4	8		70		0		13		0
100		19	0		-	1									63	13			25
99		18	0		-	2							1		51	4			40		3
98		18	1		-	1							1		33	9	2		48		9
97		17	1		-	2								0	20	9	1		52	1	16
96		17	2		-	1							0		7	10	1	0	52	4	26	0
95		16	2		-	2							0	0	3	8	1	0	42	10	36	1	0
94		16	3		-	1								0	0	5	1	0	29	16	46	3	0
93		15	3		-	2									0	2	0	1	15	20	50	10	1	0
92		15	4		-	1									0	1	0	0	6	20	45	26	1	0	0
91		14	4		-	2										0	0	0	2	16	31	47	3	1	0	0	0
90		14	5		-	1										0	0	0	0	11	15	66	4	2	1	0	0	0
89		13	5		-	2										0		0	0	7	5	74	4	5	4	2	0	0
88		12	5		-	3												0	0	3	1	72	2	5	8	6	2	0	0
		13	6		-	1										0		0	0	4	1	73	3	6	7	5	1	0	0
87		12	6		-	2												0		2	0	64	1	4	10	11	6	1	0	0
		11	5		-	4												0		2	0	63	1	4	10	12	7	2	0	0
86		11	6		-	3														1	0	51	0	2	7	15	15	7	1	0	0
		12	7		-	1												0		1	0	54	0	2	8	15	13	5	1	0
85		11	7		-	2														0	0	40	0	1	4	14	21	15	5	1	0
		10	6		-	4												0		0		39	0	1	4	13	21	16	6	1	0	0
84		10	7		-	3														0		27	0	0	1	8	21	25	14	3	0	0
		11	8		-	1														0		28	0	0	1	8	21	25	14	3	0	0
83		10	8		-	2														0		18		0	0	3	15	29	24	9	1	0	0
		9	7		-	4														0		15		0	0	3	13	27	28	12	2	0
82		9	8		-	3														0		9		0	0	1	7	22	33	22	6	1	0
		10	9		-	1														0		10		0	0	1	7	23	33	21	6	1	0
81		9	9		-	2														0		5			0	0	3	13	31	32	14	3	0	0
		8	8		-	4														0		4			0	0	2	11	30	34	16	3	0	0	0
80		8	9		-	3																2				0	1	5	20	36	26	9	1	0	0
		9	10		-	1																2				0	1	5	21	36	26	8	1	0
79		8	10		-	2																1				0	0	2	11	30	35	18	4	0	0
		7	9		-	4																1				0	0	1	10	29	35	19	5	0	0
78		7	10		-	3																0					0	0	4	18	34	30	12	2	0	0
		8	11		-	1																0					0	0	4	18	34	30	12	2	0	0
77		7	11		-	2																0						0	1	8	25	35	23	6	1	0
76		6	11		-	3																0						0	0	3	15	32	33	15	3	0
75		6	12		-	2																0							0	1	6	22	36	26	8	1
74		5	12		-	3																							0	0	2	13	31	35	16	3
73		5	13		-	2																								0	1	6	22	37	28	6
72		5	14		-	1																								0	0	2	12	34	37	14
71		4	14		-	2																										1	6	25	44	24
70		4	15		-	1																										0	2	17	44	36
69		3	15		-	2																											1	9	38	52
68		3	16		-	1																												4	38	57
67		2	16		-	2																												1	23	76
66		2	17		-	1																													9	91
65		1	17		-	2																													20	80
63	-64																																			100
61		0	20		-	0																													2	98

Total:											0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	2	28	1	1	2	5	8	10	12	11	8	5	3	1	1	0