Your team’s chances of making the playoffs

Sports Club Stats, which I have open
in like seven browser tabs always
-Katie Baker

Washington Capitals Playoff Chances 2011-2012

Lost to Chicago 3-5, playoff odds down 0.09 to 99.8%

41 points 19 14-3

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Thursday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Washington 3 Chicago 5	-0.1		-0.2
Pittsburgh 2 Long Island 4			+0.1

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Friday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Tampa Bay vs Washington	-0.1+0.0-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1		-0.2-0.0-0.1+0.1+0.1+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Washington finish out the regular season. Explain

									100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	playoffs		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	Count

125	-133						In		100												153	*
124		40	3		-	3	In		80		20										5	*
123		40	4		-	2	In		67	17	17										6	*
122		39	4		-	3	In		89	4	7										28	*
121		39	5		-	2	In		81	2	17										54	*
120		38	5		-	3	In		65	3	32										111	*
119		37	5		-	4	In		55	4	41										217	*
118		37	6		-	3	In		54	2	44										415	*
117		36	6		-	4	In		41	5	54										880	*
116		36	7		-	3	In		33	6	61	0									1,493	*
115		35	7		-	4	In		25	6	69	0									2,538	*
114		35	8		-	3	In		19	7	73	0									4,031	*
113		34	8		-	4	In		12	7	79	2									6,321	*
112		34	9		-	3	In		8	7	82	3									9,563	*
111		33	9		-	4	In		5	6	83	5	0								13,676	*
110		33	10		-	3	In		3	5	83	9	0								18,979	*
109		32	10		-	4	In		2	4	81	13	0								25,644	*
108		31	10		-	5	In		1	3	77	19	0								33,492	*
107		31	11		-	4	In		0	2	70	26	1								42,929	*
106		30	11		-	5	In		0	2	63	34	2	0							52,277	*
105		30	12		-	4	In		0	1	54	42	3	0							62,725	*
104		29	12		-	5	In		0	1	44	50	5	0							71,786	*
103		29	13		-	4	In		0	0	35	56	9	0	0						81,112	*
102		28	13		-	5	In			0	26	59	13	1	0						89,168	*
101		28	14		-	4	In		0	0	18	60	20	2	0						93,645	*
100		27	14		-	5	In			0	13	58	27	3	0						96,609	*
99		27	15		-	4	In			0	8	53	34	5	0						98,084	*
98		26	15		-	5	In			0	5	46	40	9	0	0					95,565	*
97		26	16		-	4	In			0	2	37	46	14	1	0					90,641	*
96		25	16		-	5	In			0	1	28	48	21	1	0					83,903	*
95		25	17		-	4	In			0	1	21	48	28	3	0					75,755	*
94		24	17		-	5	In			0	0	14	44	36	6	0					66,392	*
93		24	18		-	4	In				0	9	38	43	10	0					56,912	*
92		23	18		-	5	100.0	%			0	5	31	48	15	1	0				47,919	*
91		23	19		-	4	100.0				0	3	23	50	22	2	0				38,927	*
90		22	19		-	5	99.9					1	16	48	30	4	0				30,631	*
89		22	20		-	4	99.9					1	11	44	38	7	0				23,920	*
88		21	20		-	5	99.8					0	6	38	44	12	0				18,123	*
87		21	21		-	4	99.3					0	3	29	48	19	1				13,190	*
86		20	21		-	5	98.3					0	2	22	49	26	2	0			9,456	*
85		20	22		-	4	96.9						1	15	47	34	3	0			6,673	*
84		19	22		-	5	93.6						1	10	40	43	6	0			4,606	*
83		19	23		-	4	89.8						0	5	36	49	10	0			3,141	*
82		18	23		-	5	83.4							3	26	55	15	1			2,024	*
81		18	24		-	4	76.5							1	19	56	21	2			1,288	*
80		17	24		-	5	67.1							1	14	52	30	3	0		839	*
79		17	25		-	4	55.9								10	46	35	9			456	*
78		16	25		-	5	42.7							0	6	36	45	11	1		286	*
77		16	26		-	4	33.3								1	32	44	21	1		150	*
76		15	26		-	5	22.2								1	21	54	22	1		72	*
75		15	27		-	4	17.6									18	43	29	10		51	*
74		14	27		-	5	Out										40	44	16		25	*
73		15	29		-	2	20.0									20	20	40	20		5	*
72		14	29		-	3	Out										14	71	14		7	*
71		12	28		-	6	Out										40	40	20		5	*
70		13	30		-	3	Out											100			1
41	-68						Out													100	153	*

Total:							99.8	%	0	1	22	34	23	14	5	1	0	0	0	0	1,477,057

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Thursday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Washington 3 Chicago 5	+0.4
Pittsburgh 2 Long Island 4	-0.1
Ottawa 2 Toronto 6	+0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Friday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Tampa Bay vs Washington	+0.4+0.1+0.1-0.3-0.2-0.3
Pittsburgh vs Montreal	-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1+0.0-0.0

What If

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24

125	-133						100
124		40	3		-	3	80				20
123		40	4		-	2	50	17	17		17
122		39	4		-	3	57	32	4		7
121		39	5		-	2	56	26	2		15	2
120		38	5		-	3	37	28	2	1	32	1
119		37	5		-	4	31	24	4		37	4
118		37	6		-	3	23	32	2		42	2
117		36	6		-	4	13	28	5	0	48	6
116		36	7		-	3	8	25	6	0	52	9	0
115		35	7		-	4	4	21	5	1	53	16	0
114		35	8		-	3	2	18	5	2	49	25	0	0
113		34	8		-	4	1	11	5	2	45	34	2	0
112		34	9		-	3	0	8	4	3	38	44	3	0
111		33	9		-	4	0	5	3	3	30	53	5	0	0
110		33	10		-	3	0	3	2	3	22	61	7	1	0
109		32	10		-	4	0	2	1	3	14	67	10	3	0
108		31	10		-	5		1	1	2	9	68	13	6	0	0
107		31	11		-	4		0	0	2	5	66	15	11	1	0
106		30	11		-	5		0	0	1	2	61	16	18	1	0	0
105		30	12		-	4		0	0	1	1	53	14	28	2	0	0
104		29	12		-	5		0	0	1	0	44	12	38	4	1	0
103		29	13		-	4		0	0	0	0	35	9	47	6	3	0	0	0
102		28	13		-	5				0	0	26	6	53	8	6	1	0	0
101		28	14		-	4		0		0	0	18	3	57	9	10	1	0	0
100		27	14		-	5				0	0	13	2	56	10	17	3	0	0
99		27	15		-	4				0		8	1	52	9	25	5	1	0
98		26	15		-	5				0		5	0	45	8	33	7	2	0		0
97		26	16		-	4				0		2	0	37	6	40	10	4	1	0	0
96		25	16		-	5				0		1	0	28	4	44	14	7	1	0	0
95		25	17		-	4				0		1	0	21	2	45	16	12	3	0	0
94		24	17		-	5				0		0		14	1	43	18	18	5	0	0
93		24	18		-	4						0		9	0	38	17	26	9	0	0
92		23	18		-	5						0		5	0	31	15	33	14	1	1		0
91		23	19		-	4						0		3	0	23	12	38	20	2	2	0	0
90		22	19		-	5								1	0	16	8	40	25	5	4	0	0
89		22	20		-	4								1	0	11	5	39	30	8	7	0	0
88		21	20		-	5								0		6	3	35	31	13	12	0	0
87		21	21		-	4								0		3	2	28	29	19	18	1	1
86		20	21		-	5								0		2	1	22	24	25	24	2	2	0
85		20	22		-	4										1	0	14	19	29	30	5	3	0
84		19	22		-	5										1	0	9	12	29	35	8	6	0
83		19	23		-	4										0		5	6	29	35	14	10	1
82		18	23		-	5												3	4	22	33	21	14	2	0
81		18	24		-	4												1	2	17	29	27	19	4	0
80		17	24		-	5												1	1	14	19	33	24	8	1
79		17	25		-	4														10	12	34	26	15	3	0
78		16	25		-	5												0		6	9	27	26	23	8	0
77		16	26		-	4														1	4	28	23	27	11	5	1
76		16	27		-	3														1	1	19	22	29	15	8	3
75		15	27		-	4																18	14	25	25	14	4
74		14	27		-	5																	4	28	16	40	8	4
73		15	29		-	2																20			60		20
72		14	29		-	3																		29		14	57
71		12	28		-	6																			40	60
70		13	30		-	3																		100
68		11	30		-	5																							100
41		0	46		-	0																								100

Total:							0	0	0	0	2	20	4	30	4	19	6	8	4	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0