Toronto Leafs Playoff Chances 2011-2012

Beat Ottawa 6-2, playoff odds up 0.01 to 99.98%

48 points 23 12-2

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Chances based on how well the Toronto finish out the regular season. Explain

									100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	playoffs		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	Count

129	-138						In		100												163	*
128		38	3		-	4	In		95	5											22	*
127		38	4		-	3	In		96	4											51	*
126		37	4		-	4	In		96	4											124	*
125		37	5		-	3	In		89	10	0										272	*
124		36	5		-	4	In		86	14	0										595	*
123		36	6		-	3	In		82	18	0										1,046	*
122		35	6		-	4	In		73	25	1										1,709	*
121		35	7		-	3	In		67	31	1										2,987	*
120		34	7		-	4	In		60	38	3										4,918	*
119		34	8		-	3	In		51	45	4										7,573	*
118		33	8		-	4	In		43	51	6	0									11,416	*
117		33	9		-	3	In		35	56	8										16,257	*
116		32	9		-	4	In		28	61	11	0									22,869	*
115		32	10		-	3	In		21	63	16	0									30,430	*
114		31	10		-	4	In		15	64	20	0									39,687	*
113		31	11		-	3	In		11	63	26	0									49,525	*
112		30	11		-	4	In		7	60	32	0									60,680	*
111		29	11		-	5	In		5	56	39	1	0								70,866	*
110		29	12		-	4	In		3	51	45	1	0								80,377	*
109		28	12		-	5	In		2	45	51	3	0								89,080	*
108		28	13		-	4	In		1	38	56	5	0								95,412	*
107		27	13		-	5	In		0	31	60	8	0	0							99,775	*
106		27	14		-	4	In		0	26	62	12	0								100,263	*
105		26	14		-	5	In		0	20	61	17	1	0							98,007	*
104		26	15		-	4	In		0	15	59	24	2	0							94,105	*
103		25	15		-	5	In		0	11	54	31	4	0	0						87,594	*
102		25	16		-	4	In		0	8	47	38	7	0							78,687	*
101		24	16		-	5	In			6	39	44	11	1	0						69,088	*
100		24	17		-	4	In			4	31	48	16	2	0	0					58,998	*
99		23	17		-	5	In			2	23	48	23	3	0						49,462	*
98		23	18		-	4	In			1	16	46	31	6	0	0					40,125	*
97		22	18		-	5	In			1	10	41	38	10	1	0					31,383	*
96		22	19		-	4	In			0	6	33	43	16	1	0					24,243	*
95		21	19		-	5	In			0	3	26	44	24	3	0					18,209	*
94		21	20		-	4	In			0	2	17	43	32	5	0					13,405	*
93		20	20		-	5	100.0	%		0	1	11	39	40	10	0	0				9,432	*
92		20	21		-	4	In				0	8	32	44	15	1					6,382	*
91		19	21		-	5	In			0	0	3	25	47	22	2					4,320	*
90		19	22		-	4	100.0			0		2	16	45	33	4	0				2,804	*
89		18	22		-	5	99.9					1	10	40	41	9	0				1,802	*
88		18	23		-	4	99.7					0	5	33	47	13	0				1,149	*
87		17	23		-	5	98.7						3	27	49	20	1	0			687	*
86		17	24		-	4	96.2						2	17	47	31	4				425	*
85		17	25		-	3	96.4						0	14	49	33	4				221	*
84		16	25		-	4	91.5							3	47	42	8				130	*
83		15	25		-	5	86.1								24	63	14				72	*
82		15	26		-	4	75.0							6	22	47	25				36	*
81		14	26		-	5	84.2							5	21	58	16				19	*
80		14	27		-	4	66.7								7	60	20	13			15	*
79		14	28		-	3	40.0									40	20	40			5	*
78		13	28		-	4	Out											100			1
76		13	30		-	2	Out										50	50			2	*
48		0	45		-	0	Out													100	152

Total:							100.0	%	4	28	41	17	7	2	1	0	0	0		0	1,477,057

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Thursday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Ottawa 2 Toronto 6	-0.2
Pittsburgh 2 Long Island 4	-0.1
Washington 3 Chicago 5	-0.1
Vancouver 5 Buffalo 1	-0.1

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Friday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Tampa Bay vs Washington	-0.1-0.0*-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24

129	-138						100
128		38	3		-	4	95		5
127		38	4		-	3	94	2	4
126		37	4		-	4	90	6	4
125		37	5		-	3	85	4	10		0
124		36	5		-	4	78	7	14		0
123		36	6		-	3	71	11	18		0
122		35	6		-	4	58	16	25	0	1
121		35	7		-	3	48	19	31	0	1
120		34	7		-	4	37	23	37	0	3	0
119		34	8		-	3	27	24	43	1	4	0
118		33	8		-	4	18	25	48	3	6	0	0
117		33	9		-	3	11	25	51	5	7	1
116		32	9		-	4	6	22	52	9	10	2	0
115		32	10		-	3	3	18	51	13	12	4	0
114		31	10		-	4	1	14	46	18	14	6	0
113		31	11		-	3	1	10	39	24	15	11	0	0
112		30	11		-	4	0	7	32	29	15	17	0	0
111		29	11		-	5	0	5	24	32	14	25	1	0	0
110		29	12		-	4	0	3	17	34	12	33	1	0	0
109		28	12		-	5	0	2	11	33	9	42	2	0	0
108		28	13		-	4		1	7	31	6	50	3	1	0	0
107		27	13		-	5		0	4	27	4	56	5	3	0	0	0
106		27	14		-	4		0	2	23	2	59	6	7	0	0
105		26	14		-	5		0	1	19	1	60	6	11	1	0	0
104		26	15		-	4		0	0	15	0	58	6	18	2	0	0
103		25	15		-	5		0	0	11	0	54	5	26	3	1	0	0	0
102		25	16		-	4		0	0	8	0	47	4	34	4	3	0	0
101		24	16		-	5			0	6	0	39	3	41	5	6	1	0	0
100		24	17		-	4			0	4	0	31	2	46	6	10	1	0	0		0
99		23	17		-	5			0	2		23	1	48	6	17	3	0	0
98		23	18		-	4				1		16	0	45	6	25	5	1	0		0
97		22	18		-	5				1		10	0	40	5	33	7	3	1		0
96		22	19		-	4				0		6	0	33	3	40	10	6	1	0	0
95		21	19		-	5				0		3	0	26	2	42	13	10	3	0	0
94		21	20		-	4				0		2	0	17	1	42	15	17	5	0	0
93		20	20		-	5				0		1		11	1	38	15	25	9	0	0		0
92		20	21		-	4						0		8	0	32	13	31	15	1	1
91		19	21		-	5				0		0		3	0	25	11	36	21	2	2
90		19	22		-	4				0				2		16	8	37	29	4	4	0	0
89		18	22		-	5								1		10	4	35	33	8	8	0	0
88		18	23		-	4								0		5	2	31	36	12	13	0	0
87		17	23		-	5										3	2	25	32	17	20	0	1	0
86		17	24		-	4										2	0	16	27	20	29	1	4
85		17	25		-	3										0	1	13	22	27	31	3	4
84		16	25		-	4												3	19	28	34	8	8
83		15	25		-	5													7	17	43	19	13	1
82		15	26		-	4												6	3	19	25	22	25
81		14	26		-	5												5	11	11	16	42	16
80		14	27		-	4														7	40	20	20	13
79		14	28		-	3																40		60
78		13	28		-	4																	100
76		13	30		-	2																		50		50
48		0	45		-	0																								100

Total:							1	3	11	18	5	36	3	15	2	5	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0		0				0