Montreal Canadien Playoff Chances 2011-2012

Did not play, playoff odds up 0.06 to 98.7%

44 points 18 11-8

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Thursday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Dallas 4 Los Angeles 3	-0.1
Philadelphie 3 Anaheim 4	+0.0
Pittsburgh 2 Long Island 4			+0.1

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Friday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Pittsburgh vs Montreal	-0.4*+0.1+0.1+0.5+0.5+0.5		-0.2-0.0-0.0+0.2+0.2+0.3
Tampa Bay vs Washington	-0.1-0.1-0.1+0.1*-0.0+0.1
Detroit vs Philadelphie	+0.0-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Montreal finish out the regular season. Explain

									100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	playoffs		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	Count

122	-134						In		100												154	*
121		36	4		-	5	In		67	33											3
120		36	5		-	4	In		20	80											5	*
119		35	5		-	5	In		54	46											13	*
118		34	5		-	6	In		44	44	12										25	*
117		34	6		-	5	In		35	54	10										48	*
116		34	7		-	4	In		32	51	15	2									108	*
115		33	7		-	5	In		20	57	21	2									225	*
114		33	8		-	4	In		17	53	29	1									418	*
113		32	8		-	5	In		9	50	37	4									745	*
112		32	9		-	4	In		7	44	43	6									1,245	*
111		31	9		-	5	In		4	40	47	10	0								2,064	*
110		31	10		-	4	In		3	33	51	13	0								3,279	*
109		30	10		-	5	In		2	26	51	20	1								5,204	*
108		30	11		-	4	In		0	19	52	27	1								7,957	*
107		29	11		-	5	In		0	15	47	35	3	0							11,504	*
106		29	12		-	4	In		0	10	41	42	6	0							16,159	*
105		28	12		-	5	In		0	7	35	48	9	0							22,104	*
104		27	12		-	6	In		0	4	28	53	14	0							29,435	*
103		27	13		-	5	In		0	3	21	54	21	1							37,806	*
102		26	13		-	6	In		0	2	15	53	28	2	0						46,458	*
101		26	14		-	5	In			1	10	49	36	5	0						56,769	*
100		25	14		-	6	In			0	6	43	43	8	0						66,533	*
99		25	15		-	5	In			0	4	35	48	12	0						75,777	*
98		24	15		-	6	In			0	2	27	52	18	1	0					84,745	*
97		24	16		-	5	In			0	1	20	52	26	1	0					91,586	*
96		23	16		-	6	In			0	0	14	50	33	3	0					95,661	*
95		23	17		-	5	In			0	0	9	45	41	5	0					98,019	*
94		22	17		-	6	In				0	5	38	48	8	0					97,198	*
93		22	18		-	5	In			0	0	3	31	53	13	1					93,380	*
92		21	18		-	6	100.0	%		0	0	1	22	55	19	1	0				88,820	*
91		21	19		-	5	100.0				0	1	16	54	27	3	0				81,015	*
90		20	19		-	6	100.0					0	10	50	34	5	0				71,962	*
89		20	20		-	5	99.8					0	7	44	41	8	0	0			62,485	*
88		19	20		-	6	99.6					0	4	36	47	13	0	0			53,192	*
87		19	21		-	5	99.0					0	2	28	50	19	1	0			43,355	*
86		18	21		-	6	97.9					0	1	20	50	27	2	0			35,076	*
85		18	22		-	5	95.8						0	14	47	35	4	0			27,386	*
84		17	22		-	6	92.2						0	8	41	43	8	0	0		20,921	*
83		17	23		-	5	86.9						0	5	34	48	12	1			15,227	*
82		16	23		-	6	79.8						0	3	25	52	19	2	0		10,923	*
81		16	24		-	5	70.7						0	1	18	51	26	3	0		7,510	*
80		15	24		-	6	59.2							1	11	48	34	6	0		5,177	*
79		15	25		-	5	46.5							0	7	39	41	12	0		3,567	*
78		15	26		-	4	37.0								3	34	46	16	2		2,187	*
77		14	26		-	5	25.4								2	24	47	24	3	0	1,421	*
76		14	27		-	4	17.5								0	17	43	32	7		861	*
75		13	27		-	5	10.9									11	40	37	12	0	503	*
74		13	28		-	4	4.7									5	34	47	14		317	*
73		12	28		-	5	3.8									4	28	45	23	1	160	*
72		11	28		-	6	2.9									3	12	47	35	4	103	*
71		11	29		-	5	Out										16	40	42	2	57	*
70		11	30		-	4	Out										10	39	39	13	31	*
69		10	30		-	5	Out											23	77		13	*
68		9	30		-	6	Out											29	57	14	7	*
66	-67						Out											100			2	*
44		0	45		-	0	Out													100	152

Total:							98.7	%	0	1	5	16	28	29	15	5	1	0	0	0	1,477,057

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Thursday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Pittsburgh 2 Long Island 4	-0.1
Washington 3 Chicago 5	-0.1
Philadelphie 3 Anaheim 4	-0.1

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Friday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Pittsburgh vs Montreal	+0.4+0.0+0.0-0.4-0.4-0.5
Detroit vs Philadelphie	-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.0

What If

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24

123	-134						100
122		36	3		-	6		100
121		36	4		-	5	67		33
120		36	5		-	4	20		80
119		35	5		-	5	38	15	46
118		34	5		-	6	16	28	40	4	8	4
117		34	6		-	5	10	25	48	6	10
116		34	7		-	4	9	23	47	4	11	4	2
115		33	7		-	5	2	18	44	13	18	3	2
114		33	8		-	4	2	15	39	13	20	9	1
113		32	8		-	5	0	8	31	19	24	13	3	0
112		32	9		-	4	0	7	23	21	21	22	6	0
111		31	9		-	5	0	3	18	22	19	27	9	1	0
110		31	10		-	4		3	10	23	16	35	12	2	0
109		30	10		-	5		2	6	20	10	41	16	4	1
108		30	11		-	4		0	4	16	7	45	19	8	1
107		29	11		-	5		0	2	13	4	43	19	16	3	0	0
106		29	12		-	4		0	1	9	2	40	19	23	5	0	0
105		28	12		-	5		0	0	7	1	35	17	31	8	1	0
104		27	12		-	6		0	0	4	0	28	13	40	11	3	0
103		27	13		-	5		0	0	3	0	21	9	45	14	6	1	0
102		26	13		-	6		0	0	2	0	15	5	48	17	11	2	0	0
101		26	14		-	5				1	0	10	3	46	17	19	4	0	0
100		25	14		-	6				0	0	6	1	42	15	27	7	1	0
99		25	15		-	5				0		4	1	35	13	35	11	2	0
98		24	15		-	6				0		2	0	27	10	42	15	3	1		0
97		24	16		-	5				0		1	0	20	7	45	19	6	1	0	0
96		23	16		-	6				0		0	0	14	4	46	22	11	3	0	0
95		23	17		-	5				0		0	0	9	2	42	24	18	5	0	0
94		22	17		-	6						0	0	5	1	37	23	25	8	0	0
93		22	18		-	5				0		0		3	0	30	21	32	13	0	1
92		21	18		-	6				0		0		1	0	22	17	38	18	1	1	0	0
91		21	19		-	5						0		1	0	16	13	41	24	2	3		0
90		20	19		-	6								0	0	10	9	41	30	5	5	0	0
89		20	20		-	5								0	0	7	5	39	33	8	8	0	0
88		19	20		-	6								0		4	3	33	34	13	13	0	0	0
87		19	21		-	5								0		2	1	27	31	18	19	1	1	0
86		18	21		-	6								0		1	0	20	27	24	25	2	2	0
85		18	22		-	5										0	0	14	20	27	31	4	4	0
84		17	22		-	6										0	0	8	13	28	35	7	7	0	0
83		17	23		-	5										0	0	5	8	25	36	12	12	1	0
82		16	23		-	6										0		3	4	21	34	18	17	3	0	0
81		16	24		-	5										0		1	2	17	27	24	23	6	0	0
80		15	24		-	6												1	1	10	19	29	29	10	1	0
79		15	25		-	5												0	0	7	11	29	31	19	4	0	0
78		15	26		-	4													0	3	6	28	29	24	9	1	0
77		14	26		-	5													0	2	2	21	23	31	16	4	0
76		14	27		-	4														0	1	16	17	30	24	10	2	0
75		13	27		-	5																11	12	27	27	18	5	0
74		13	28		-	4																5	6	22	28	28	9	2
73		12	28		-	5																4	2	13	28	27	23	4	1
72		11	28		-	6																3		7	17	37	27	9		1
71		11	29		-	5																		2	16	28	26	23	5
70		11	30		-	4																		3	3	26	35	26	3	3
69		10	30		-	5																			8		38	46	8
68		9	30		-	6																					43	43		14
67		8	30		-	7																					100
66		9	32		-	4																						100
44		0	45		-	0																								100

Total:							0	0	0	1	0	4	2	15	5	23	12	17	11	4	4	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0