Edmonton Oilers Playoff Chances 2011-2012

Did not play, playoff odds down 0.02 to 6.9%

29 points 13 20-3

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Thursday	None

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Friday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs
Winnipeg vs Colorado	+0.4*-0.1-0.3-0.4-0.3-0.3

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

Chances based on how well the Edmonton finish out the regular season. Explain

									100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	playoffs		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	Count

121		46	0		-	0	In		70	30											152
100		31	6		-	9	In						100								1
99		33	9		-	4	In						40	60							5	*
98		30	7		-	9	In						100								1
97		31	9		-	6	In							100							2	*
96		31	10		-	5	In						25	50	25						8	*
95		30	10		-	6	In						8	85	8						13	*
94		29	10		-	7	In						5	73	22						37	*
93		29	11		-	6	In							58	42						62	*
92		28	11		-	7	In						5	50	42	2					92	*
91		28	12		-	6	In						2	37	56	6					200	*
90		27	12		-	7	In						1	31	58	10					391	*
89		27	13		-	6	99.3	%					0	26	61	12	1				680	*
88		26	13		-	7	99.1							17	62	20	1				1,164	*
87		26	14		-	6	97.4						0	12	62	23	3	0			1,843	*
86		25	14		-	7	95.5						0	8	53	35	4	0			2,844	*
85		25	15		-	6	91.6							5	47	40	8	0			4,296	*
84		24	15		-	7	87.0							3	38	46	12	1			6,426	*
83		24	16		-	6	79.3							1	29	49	19	2	0		9,495	*
82		23	16		-	7	69.8							1	22	47	27	4	0		13,005	*
81		23	17		-	6	60.6							0	15	45	33	6	0		17,803	*
80		22	17		-	7	48.7							0	9	39	40	11	1	0	24,104	*
79		21	17		-	8	37.6							0	5	32	44	17	1	0	31,048	*
78		21	18		-	7	27.1							0	3	24	46	24	3	0	39,089	*
77		20	18		-	8	17.9							0	1	16	44	33	5	0	48,081	*
76		20	19		-	7	11.2								1	11	39	40	10	0	57,658	*
75		20	20		-	6	6.4								0	6	32	45	15	1	66,771	*
74		19	20		-	7	3.3								0	3	24	48	22	2	76,146	*
73		18	20		-	8	1.6								0	2	17	47	30	4	84,258	*
72		18	21		-	7	0.7								0	1	11	43	38	8	90,684	*
71		18	22		-	6	0.2								0	0	6	37	44	13	94,454	*
70		17	22		-	7	0.1								0	0	3	29	48	19	96,714	*
69		17	23		-	6	0.0									0	2	22	50	27	95,678	*
68		16	23		-	7	0.0									0	1	15	49	35	93,110	*
67		16	24		-	6	0.0									0	0	10	45	44	87,548	*
66		15	24		-	7	Out										0	6	40	53	80,456	*
65		15	25		-	6	Out										0	4	34	62	71,547	*
64		14	25		-	7	Out										0	2	28	70	61,837	*
63		14	26		-	6	Out										0	1	22	77	52,234	*
62		13	26		-	7	Out											1	17	82	42,761	*
61		13	27		-	6	Out											0	12	88	34,359	*
60		12	27		-	7	Out											0	9	91	26,358	*
59		12	28		-	6	Out											0	6	94	19,855	*
58		11	28		-	7	Out											0	4	96	14,509	*
57		11	29		-	6	Out											0	3	97	10,210	*
56		10	29		-	7	Out												2	98	6,951	*
55		10	30		-	6	Out											0	1	99	4,558	*
54		9	30		-	7	Out												1	99	3,061	*
53		9	31		-	6	Out												0	100	1,868	*
52		8	31		-	7	Out												0	100	1,078	*
29	-51						Out													100	1,552	*

Total:							6.9	%	0	0			0	0	2	5	12	22	28	31	1,477,057

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Thursday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Ottawa 2 Toronto 6	-0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Friday	100.0*	Lottery seed
New York vs Ottawa	-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1
Winnipeg vs Colorado	+0.0+0.0+0.1+0.0+0.0-0.0
San Jose vs Long Island	-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.1+0.1

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24

121		46	0		-	0	57	13	30
100		31	6		-	9									100
99		33	9		-	4									40		60
98		30	7		-	9									100
97		31	9		-	6											100
96		31	10		-	5									13	13	38	13	25
95		30	10		-	6										8	54	31	8
94		29	10		-	7										5	65	8	22
93		29	11		-	6											32	26	35	6
92		28	11		-	7									2	3	23	27	39	3	2
91		28	12		-	6										2	11	26	47	9	6
90		27	12		-	7										1	9	23	45	13	10
89		27	13		-	6										0	4	23	39	22	12	0	1
88		26	13		-	7											2	15	33	29	18	1	1
87		26	14		-	6										0	1	11	25	36	21	2	3	0
86		25	14		-	7										0	0	8	17	35	28	6	4	0
85		25	15		-	6											0	4	10	38	28	11	8	1
84		24	15		-	7											0	3	5	33	28	17	12	1	0
83		24	16		-	6											0	1	2	27	25	24	18	3	0	0
82		23	16		-	7												1	1	21	19	29	24	6	1	0
81		23	17		-	6												0	0	15	13	32	28	10	1	0
80		22	17		-	7												0	0	9	7	32	30	17	4	0
79		21	17		-	8												0	0	5	4	28	28	25	8	1	0
78		21	18		-	7												0	0	3	2	22	25	31	14	3	0	0
77		20	18		-	8												0		1	1	16	19	34	22	6	1	0
76		20	19		-	7														1	0	10	12	32	30	12	2	0	0
75		20	20		-	6														0	0	6	7	26	35	20	5	1	0
74		19	20		-	7														0	0	3	3	18	34	28	11	2	0	0
73		18	20		-	8														0	0	2	1	11	29	34	18	4	0	0
72		18	21		-	7														0		1	1	6	21	35	27	9	1	0
71		18	22		-	6														0		0	0	2	13	32	33	16	3	0
70		17	22		-	7														0		0	0	1	7	25	37	24	6	0
69		17	23		-	6																0	0	0	3	17	35	32	12	1
68		16	23		-	7																0		0	1	10	29	38	19	3
67		16	24		-	6																0		0	1	5	22	39	27	6
66		15	24		-	7																		0	0	2	15	37	36	10
65		15	25		-	6																			0	1	9	31	43	16
64		14	25		-	7																			0	0	5	24	46	24
63		14	26		-	6																			0	0	2	18	47	33
62		13	26		-	7																				0	1	12	44	43
61		13	27		-	6																				0	0	7	39	53
60		12	27		-	7																					0	4	33	63
59		12	28		-	6																					0	2	26	71
58		11	28		-	7																				0	0	1	21	78
57		11	29		-	6																						1	16	84
56		10	29		-	7																						0	12	88
55		10	30		-	6																						0	9	91
54		9	30		-	7																							5	95
53		9	31		-	6																							3	97
52		8	31		-	7																							2	98
51		8	32		-	6																							1	99
50		8	33		-	5																							1	99
48	-49																													100
47		7	35		-	4																							2	98
29	-46																													100

Total:							0	0	0						0	0	0	0	0	1	1	4	4	7	10	13	15	16	15	11