Dallas Stars Playoff Chances 2011-2012

Beat Los Angeles 4-3, playoff odds up 3.2 to 11.7%

31 points 14 20-3

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Thursday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Dallas 4 Los Angeles 3	+2.0		+0.1
Philadelphie 3 Anaheim 4	+0.3
Ottawa 2 Toronto 6	+0.2

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Friday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Tampa Bay vs Washington	-1.1-1.1-1.2-0.2-0.1+1.2
Detroit vs Philadelphie	+0.4-0.1-0.1-0.5-0.6-0.7
New York vs Ottawa			+0.0-0.0-0.0-0.1-0.1-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

Chances based on how well the Dallas finish out the regular season. Explain

									100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	playoffs		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	Count

121		45	0		-	0	In		90		10										152
102		33	7		-	5	In						100								2	*
101		33	8		-	4	In					50	50								2	*
100		32	8		-	5	In				25	50	25								4	*
99		31	8		-	6	In				11	11	56	22							9	*
98		31	9		-	5	In				3	20	53	20	3						30	*
97		30	9		-	6	In				4	17	48	19	12						52	*
96		30	10		-	5	In					14	46	27	12						99	*
95		29	10		-	6	In					8	40	40	12	1					177	*
94		28	10		-	7	In					6	25	45	21	3					380	*
93		28	11		-	6	99.8	%				3	19	44	29	5	0				622	*
92		27	11		-	7	99.6					0	14	42	37	7	0				1,053	*
91		27	12		-	6	99.0					1	9	34	43	13	1				1,701	*
90		27	13		-	5	98.8					0	5	27	46	20	1				2,710	*
89		26	13		-	6	96.7					0	3	20	48	26	3	0			4,249	*
88		25	13		-	7	94.1					0	1	13	45	36	6	0			6,359	*
87		25	14		-	6	88.7						0	8	40	41	11	0			9,314	*
86		24	14		-	7	83.2						0	4	32	47	16	1			13,062	*
85		24	15		-	6	75.3						0	2	24	49	23	1			18,017	*
84		23	15		-	7	66.2						0	1	17	48	31	2			24,611	*
83		23	16		-	6	55.9							0	11	44	40	4	0		31,642	*
82		22	16		-	7	45.2						0	0	7	38	47	8	0		39,572	*
81		22	17		-	6	35.4							0	4	31	53	12	0		48,946	*
80		21	17		-	7	26.2							0	2	24	56	17	0		58,570	*
79		21	18		-	6	18.7							0	1	18	56	24	1	0	68,835	*
78		20	18		-	7	12.3							0	0	12	54	31	2	0	77,720	*
77		20	19		-	6	7.9								0	8	49	39	3	0	85,186	*
76		19	19		-	7	4.6								0	5	43	46	5	0	92,023	*
75		19	20		-	6	2.6								0	3	35	53	9	0	96,174	*
74		18	20		-	7	1.4								0	1	28	56	14	0	97,834	*
73		18	21		-	6	0.7								0	1	21	58	19	1	96,254	*
72		17	21		-	7	0.3								0	0	15	57	26	2	93,152	*
71		17	22		-	6	0.1									0	10	53	33	4	86,456	*
70		16	22		-	7	0.0									0	6	47	41	6	79,831	*
69		16	23		-	6	0.0									0	4	40	47	9	70,401	*
68		15	23		-	7	0.0									0	2	32	51	14	60,496	*
67		15	24		-	6	0.0									0	1	25	54	20	50,368	*
66		14	24		-	7	Out										1	18	54	27	41,625	*
65		14	25		-	6	Out										0	13	51	36	33,316	*
64		14	26		-	5	Out										0	8	47	45	25,509	*
63		13	26		-	6	Out										0	5	41	53	19,115	*
62		13	27		-	5	Out										0	3	35	62	13,820	*
61		12	27		-	6	Out											2	27	71	9,632	*
60		12	28		-	5	Out											1	22	78	6,587	*
59		11	28		-	6	Out											0	17	82	4,413	*
58		11	29		-	5	Out											0	12	88	2,804	*
57		10	29		-	6	Out											0	7	93	1,718	*
56		10	30		-	5	Out												7	93	1,046	*
55		9	30		-	6	Out												3	97	574	*
54		9	31		-	5	Out												4	96	334	*
53		8	31		-	6	Out													100	171	*
52		8	32		-	5	Out												3	97	88	*
31	-51						Out													100	240	*

Total:							11.7	%	0		0	0	0	0	2	9	26	35	20	8	1,477,057

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Thursday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Dallas 4 Los Angeles 3	-0.3
Ottawa 2 Toronto 6	-0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Friday	100.0*	Lottery seed
New York vs Ottawa	-0.0+0.0+0.0*+0.1+0.1+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24

121		45	0		-	0	70	20			10
102		33	7		-	5									100
101		33	8		-	4								50	50
100		32	8		-	5						25		50	25
99		31	8		-	6						11		11	11	44	22
98		31	9		-	5						3		20	7	47	20		3
97		30	9		-	6						4		17	6	42	15	4	12
96		30	10		-	5								14	4	42	22	5	12
95		29	10		-	6								8	2	37	28	12	12		1
94		28	10		-	7								6	0	25	25	20	21	0	3
93		28	11		-	6								3		19	20	24	29	0	5		0
92		27	11		-	7								0	0	13	17	25	35	2	7		0
91		27	12		-	6								1	0	9	10	24	40	3	13	0	1
90		27	13		-	5								0		5	6	21	41	6	20		1	0
89		26	13		-	6								0		3	3	17	40	8	26	0	3	0
88		25	13		-	7								0		1	1	12	34	11	35	1	6	0
87		25	14		-	6										0	1	8	26	14	39	1	11	0
86		24	14		-	7										0	0	4	17	14	44	3	16	1
85		24	15		-	6										0	0	2	11	13	44	5	23	1
84		23	15		-	7										0	0	1	5	11	41	8	31	3	0
83		23	16		-	6											0	0	3	8	33	11	39	5	0
82		22	16		-	7										0		0	1	6	25	13	45	10	0	0
81		22	17		-	6												0	0	4	17	15	48	15	1	0	0
80		21	17		-	7												0	0	2	10	14	48	23	3	0	0
79		21	18		-	6												0	0	1	5	13	43	31	7	1	0
78		20	18		-	7												0	0	0	2	10	36	38	12	2	0	0
77		20	19		-	6													0	0	1	7	26	41	20	5	0	0
76		19	19		-	7														0	0	4	17	39	28	10	1	0	0
75		19	20		-	6														0	0	2	10	32	35	17	4	0	0
74		18	20		-	7														0	0	1	5	23	36	25	8	1	0	0
73		18	21		-	6														0	0	1	2	14	33	32	15	3	0	0
72		17	21		-	7														0		0	1	8	25	35	23	7	1	0
71		17	22		-	6																0	0	3	17	33	31	13	2	0
70		16	22		-	7																0	0	1	10	27	35	21	5	0
69		16	23		-	6																0	0	0	5	19	35	29	10	1
68		15	23		-	7																0		0	2	12	30	35	18	3
67		15	24		-	6																0		0	1	7	23	37	27	6
66		14	24		-	7																		0	0	3	16	36	35	10
65		14	25		-	6																			0	1	10	30	41	18
64		14	26		-	5																			0	0	5	23	45	26
63		13	26		-	6																			0	0	2	17	45	36
62		13	27		-	5																				0	1	10	41	47
61		12	27		-	6																				0	0	6	35	59
60		12	28		-	5																					0	3	29	68
59		11	28		-	6																					0	2	23	75
58		11	29		-	5																						1	16	82
57		10	29		-	6																						0	10	90
56		10	30		-	5																						0	9	91
55		9	30		-	6																							5	95
54		9	31		-	5																							4	96
53		8	31		-	6																								100
52		8	32		-	5																							6	94
31	-51																													100

Total:							0	0			0	0		0	0	0	0	0	1	1	5	4	14	15	14	13	11	9	7	4