Calgary Flammes Playoff Chances 2011-2012

Did not play, playoff odds down 0.08 to 79.9%

38 points 16 14-6

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Thursday	None

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Friday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs
Winnipeg vs Colorado	+0.9-0.4*-0.2-1.0-1.2-0.6

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Calgary finish out the regular season. Explain

									100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	playoffs		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	Count

130		46	0		-	0	In		100												152
112		36	8		-	2	In				100										1
111		34	7		-	5	In		100												1
110		33	7		-	6	In			71		29									7	*
109		33	8		-	5	In			40	20	40									10	*
108		33	9		-	4	In			45	10	40	5								20	*
107		32	9		-	5	In			26	9	49	16								43	*
106		31	9		-	6	In			15	3	28	44	10							78	*
105		31	10		-	5	In			12	5	30	42	11							185	*
104		30	10		-	6	In			10	1	21	51	16	1						271	*
103		30	11		-	5	In			5	0	19	49	26	1						579	*
102		29	11		-	6	In			3	0	12	50	32	3						910	*
101		29	12		-	5	In			2		9	41	44	4						1,564	*
100		28	12		-	6	In			1	0	5	37	50	8						2,425	*
99		28	13		-	5	In			1		3	29	56	11						3,780	*
98		27	13		-	6	In			0		2	21	60	17	0					5,770	*
97		26	13		-	7	In			0		1	16	60	23	0					8,422	*
96		26	14		-	6	In			0		0	11	59	30	0					12,024	*
95		25	14		-	7	In			0		0	7	54	38	0					16,598	*
94		25	15		-	6	In					0	4	49	46	0					22,585	*
93		24	15		-	7	In					0	2	43	54	1					29,171	*
92		24	16		-	6	100.0	%					1	37	60	2	0				37,680	*
91		23	16		-	7	100.0						1	30	67	2	0				46,397	*
90		23	17		-	6	100.0						0	24	72	4	0				56,163	*
89		22	17		-	7	99.9						0	18	75	6	0				65,210	*
88		22	18		-	6	99.8						0	14	76	10	0				74,335	*
87		21	18		-	7	99.5						0	10	76	14	1				82,878	*
86		21	19		-	6	98.9						0	7	73	20	1	0			89,561	*
85		20	19		-	7	98.0						0	4	68	26	2	0			94,552	*
84		20	20		-	6	96.2						0	3	61	32	4	0	0		96,822	*
83		19	20		-	7	93.3							2	52	39	6	0			96,878	*
82		19	21		-	6	89.3							1	43	45	10	0	0		93,178	*
81		18	21		-	7	83.2							0	34	48	16	1	0	0	88,259	*
80		18	22		-	6	74.7							0	25	49	23	2	0		81,639	*
79		17	22		-	7	65.2							0	18	47	30	4	0	0	73,291	*
78		17	23		-	6	53.5							0	11	42	38	8	1	0	63,443	*
77		16	23		-	7	42.0							0	7	35	43	13	1	0	53,536	*
76		16	24		-	6	30.5							0	4	27	46	20	3	0	44,586	*
75		16	25		-	5	20.5								2	19	45	28	6	0	35,769	*
74		15	25		-	6	12.5								1	12	41	35	11	1	27,851	*
73		15	26		-	5	7.0								0	7	33	41	17	2	21,277	*
72		14	26		-	6	3.9								0	4	26	42	24	4	15,643	*
71		14	27		-	5	1.8								0	2	18	41	32	8	11,214	*
70		13	27		-	6	0.7									1	11	37	38	12	7,783	*
69		13	28		-	5	0.4									0	7	29	45	19	5,289	*
68		12	28		-	6	0.1									0	4	22	46	29	3,548	*
67		12	29		-	5	Out										2	15	45	38	2,194	*
66		11	29		-	6	Out										1	10	43	46	1,479	*
65		11	30		-	5	Out										0	7	37	56	814	*
64		11	31		-	4	Out										0	3	28	69	471	*
63		10	31		-	5	Out											3	23	74	269	*
62		9	31		-	6	Out											1	15	84	145	*
61		8	31		-	7	Out												13	87	85	*
60		9	33		-	4	Out												17	83	42	*
59		8	33		-	5	Out												13	88	16	*
38	-58						Out													100	164	*

Total:							79.9	%	0	0	0	0	1	9	45	25	13	5	2	1	1,477,057

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Thursday	None

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Friday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Winnipeg vs Colorado	-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.1+0.0

What If

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24

130		46	0		-	0	99	1
112		36	8		-	2					100
111		34	7		-	5	100
110		33	7		-	6			14	57			29
109		33	8		-	5			20	20	10	10	40
108		33	9		-	4			10	35	10		40		5
107		32	9		-	5			5	21	5	5	49		16
106		31	9		-	6			3	13	1	1	27	1	44		10
105		31	10		-	5			4	8	2	4	27	3	42		11
104		30	10		-	6			0	10		1	17	4	51	0	16		1
103		30	11		-	5				5		0	14	5	48	1	26		1
102		29	11		-	6				3		0	8	4	48	2	32		3
101		29	12		-	5				2			5	4	38	3	44		4
100		28	12		-	6				1		0	2	3	31	6	49	0	8
99		28	13		-	5				1			1	2	22	7	55	1	11
98		27	13		-	6				0			0	1	15	7	57	2	17		0
97		26	13		-	7				0			0	0	9	7	55	5	23	0	0
96		26	14		-	6				0			0	0	5	6	50	9	30	0	0
95		25	14		-	7				0				0	2	5	42	12	38	1	0
94		25	15		-	6								0	1	3	33	16	44	2	0	0
93		24	15		-	7								0	0	2	24	19	50	4	1
92		24	16		-	6									0	1	16	21	53	7	2	0	0
91		23	16		-	7									0	1	10	20	54	13	2	0	0
90		23	17		-	6									0	0	5	19	51	20	4	0	0
89		22	17		-	7										0	3	16	46	30	6	0	0
88		22	18		-	6										0	1	13	37	39	9	1	0
87		21	18		-	7										0	0	9	28	47	12	2	1	0
86		21	19		-	6										0	0	6	20	53	15	4	1	0
85		20	19		-	7										0	0	4	12	55	18	8	2	0	0
84		20	20		-	6										0	0	3	7	54	19	14	4	0	0
83		19	20		-	7											0	2	4	49	18	21	6	1	0
82		19	21		-	6											0	1	2	42	16	29	9	2	0	0
81		18	21		-	7												0	1	34	12	36	13	4	0	0	0
80		18	22		-	6												0	0	25	9	41	17	7	1	0	0
79		17	22		-	7												0	0	18	5	42	19	13	3	0	0
78		17	23		-	6												0	0	11	3	39	19	20	7	1	0	0
77		16	23		-	7												0		7	1	34	17	25	13	3	0	0
76		16	24		-	6												0		4	0	26	13	28	20	6	1	0
75		16	25		-	5														2	0	19	9	27	29	12	2	0	0
74		15	25		-	6														1	0	12	5	22	33	20	6	1	0
73		15	26		-	5														0	0	7	2	15	33	28	12	3	0	0
72		14	26		-	6														0		4	1	9	27	33	20	6	1	0
71		14	27		-	5														0		2	0	5	19	33	28	11	2	0
70		13	27		-	6																1	0	2	12	28	33	19	5	0
69		13	28		-	5																0	0	1	6	21	34	28	9	1
68		12	28		-	6																0		0	3	13	30	35	16	3
67		12	29		-	5																		0	1	7	23	37	27	5
66		11	29		-	6																			0	4	16	38	33	10
65		11	30		-	5																			0	1	12	29	40	17
64		11	31		-	4																			0	0	5	26	44	25
63		10	31		-	5																				1	5	16	41	37
62		9	31		-	6																						13	38	49
61		8	31		-	7																						9	38	53
60		9	33		-	4																						5	40	55
59		8	33		-	5																							25	75
38	-58																													100

Total:							0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	6	16	29	9	16	6	5	4	2	1	1	0	0