How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

Week of 6/30100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Nationals 292 Yankees 248 -1.6
-0.4
Phillies 351 Blue Jays 243 +0.5
Mets 186 Red Sox 237 -0.5
Royals 328.5 Dodgers 294 -0.4
Twins 332 Rockies 327 -0.1
Astros 266 Cubs 329 +0.1
+0.1
Rangers 290 Brewers 266 -0.1
Braves 268.5 Rays 207.5 +0.1
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 7/7100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Yankees vs Diamondbacks+0.5-0.2-0.5
+0.4-0.0-0.4
Blue Jays vs Rockies-0.2-0.2+0.2
Red Sox vs Giants-0.2+0.2+0.2
Royals vs Pirates-0.1*+0.1+0.1
Indians vs Reds-0.1-0.0+0.1
Rangers vs Phillies-0.1-0.0+0.1
Astros vs Mets-0.1-0.0+0.1
Rays vs Dodgers-0.1+0.0+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Yankees finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inChance will finish regular season at seed
TWW-L-Tplayoffs123456789101112Count
127-0-039.4%0221174416016,615
11.56-0-117.1089473514,682
116-1-05.1023315770114,474
5-0-26.14230585589
10.55-1-10.9001463211027,705
4-0-32.3212632343
105-2-00.10004513950343,007
4-1-20.103524052,906
3-0-4Out33673
9.54-2-10.000275319169,688
3-1-3Out235918146
94-3-00.000134935300570,022
3-2-2Out0124936305,680
2-1-4Out50502
8.53-3-1Out22853151093,359
2-2-3Out22360150260
83-4-0Out1145128500570,055
2-3-2Out0135329505,678
1-2-4Out33676
7.52-4-1Out023447161069,880
1-3-3Out32955121150
72-5-0Out01153935101341,439
1-4-2Out0163836902,802
0-3-4Out1001
6.51-5-1Out04284521228,095
0-4-3Out9334014543
61-6-0Out018334415113,098
0-5-2Out011284417606
5.50-6-1Out032151254,532
50-7-0Out04366016,338
Total:0.6%00003152427169412,401,904
Games Above .500
Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Week of 6/30100.0*Lottery seed
Nationals 292 Yankees 248 +0.8
Rangers 290 Brewers 266 +0.1
Angels 253 Reds 221 -0.1
Phillies 351 Blue Jays 243 +0.1
Braves 268.5 Rays 207.5 +0.0
Astros 266 Cubs 329 -0.0
Tigers 180 Giants 233 +0.0
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 7/7100.0*Lottery seed
Yankees vs Diamondbacks-0.8+0.7+0.8
Braves vs Mariners+0.1-0.1-0.1
Indians vs Reds+0.0-0.2+0.0
Astros vs Mets+0.1-0.1-0.1
Rangers vs Phillies+0.0-0.1-0.0
Rays vs Dodgers+0.0-0.1-0.0

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TWW-L-T123456789101112131415161718192021222324
127-0-00021324192612300
11.56-0-1011616213019610
116-1-0005162133248100
5-0-26016232923102
10.55-1-1010151933281120
4-0-327233335
105-2-000001417323013300
4-1-2001625342680
3-0-4333333
9.54-2-10016203528910
3-1-312173430141
94-3-0000151835311010
3-2-202113439131
2-1-45050
8.53-3-10011033401410
2-2-38424190
83-4-0001932411510
2-3-20734441310
1-2-433173317
7.52-4-100633441610
1-3-315453514
72-5-0006314417200
1-4-20629441920
0-3-4100
6.51-5-10528442130
0-4-3223328332
61-6-00425452330
0-5-242338297
5.50-6-10320432960
50-7-00217433170
Total:00000001247101419201462000