"...per the brilliant Sports Club Stats"
(thank you Mr. Dater)

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

Week of 6/30100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Angels 253 Reds 221 -2.6
-0.3
Indians 225.5 Diamondbacks 222.5 +1.5
+0.2
Twins 332 Rockies 327 +1.1
+0.1
Astros 266 Cubs 329 -0.6
-0.1
Phillies 351 Blue Jays 243 -0.1
-0.1
Royals 328.5 Dodgers 294 +0.1
Tigers 180 Giants 233 -0.1
-0.0
Braves 268.5 Rays 207.5 -0.1
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 7/7100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Indians vs Reds-2.2-1.8+0.5
-0.8-0.4+0.2
Tigers vs Cubs+1.2+0.2-0.1
+0.1+0.0-0.0
Blue Jays vs Rockies+0.6-0.2-0.4
+0.1-0.0-0.1
Red Sox vs Giants+0.1*-0.1-0.6
+0.0-0.0-0.2
Yankees vs Diamondbacks+0.4*-0.1-0.1
+0.2-0.0-0.0
Rays vs Dodgers+0.2+0.2-0.1
Rangers vs Phillies+0.1*+0.0-0.2
+0.1-0.0-0.1
Braves vs Mariners-0.0+0.1+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Reds finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inChance will finish regular season at seed
TWW-L-Tplayoffs123456789101112Count
137-0-084.7%0008515136,859
12.56-0-155.4055404013,350
126-1-032.4324619300406,696
5-0-231.5324719301,977
11.55-1-14.8533441620109,635
4-0-35.453346132147
115-2-01.1114373412201,458,403
4-1-21.31153734122011,594
3-0-4Out2550258
10.54-2-10.00112393890285,470
3-1-3Out111413980588
104-3-00.000419413152,227,204
3-2-2Out03194230420,911
2-1-4Out54247519
9.53-3-1Out03285316309,239
2-2-3Out04285215756
93-4-0Out0011043471,559,755
2-3-2Out0110464315,490
1-2-4Out17424212
8.52-4-1Out023068145,380
1-3-3Out23266316
82-5-0Out0013860491,750
1-4-2Out0138604,353
0-3-4Out1003
7.51-5-1Out0595028,810
0-4-3Out69447
71-6-0Out0298069,918
0-5-2Out199423
6.50-6-1Out010002,049
60-7-0Out9914,550
Total:2.7%00036111520242107,205,712
Games Above .500
Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Week of 6/30100.0*Lottery seed
Angels 253 Reds 221 +0.5
Indians 225.5 Diamondbacks 222.5 -0.2
Phillies 351 Blue Jays 243 +0.1
Twins 332 Rockies 327 -0.1
Tigers 180 Giants 233 +0.0
Rangers 290 Brewers 266 +0.0
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 7/7100.0*Lottery seed
Indians vs Reds+1.2+1.1-0.3
Astros vs Mets+0.0-0.2-0.2
Rangers vs Phillies+0.0-0.2-0.0
Red Sox vs Giants-0.0-0.0+0.2
Yankees vs Diamondbacks-0.1-0.2+0.0
Braves vs Mariners+0.0-0.1-0.1
Blue Jays vs Rockies-0.1-0.1+0.0
Tigers vs Cubs-0.1-0.1+0.0

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TWW-L-T123456789101112131415161718192021222324
137-0-000533467710
12.56-0-1045131818510
126-1-002304262710100
5-0-20313132420710
11.55-1-105031732281220
4-0-351714372511
115-2-0010316333114300
4-1-210152033291010
3-0-4135038
10.54-2-100151834311110
3-1-30193146131
104-3-000041733321310
3-2-20183045160
2-1-447475
9.53-3-1001728451910
2-2-30535537
93-4-0001625442310
2-3-204315690
1-2-45842
8.52-4-100327601000
1-3-3754381
82-5-00022463100
1-4-20554392
0-3-43367
7.51-5-103534130
0-4-3137413
71-6-003524230
0-5-201359252
6.50-6-101454312
60-7-0010493830
Total:00002025913161918132000