Cincinatti Reds Playoff Chances 2018 50/50

Beat Cubs 382.5-327, playoff odds up 8.5 to 41.9%

1-0-0 1.000

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

Chances based on how well the Reds finish out the regular season. Explain

									100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TW		W	-	L	-	T	playoffs		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	Count

17.5	-20						In		100												876	*
17		16	-	3	-	0	In		100	0											2,146	*
16	.5	15	-	3	-	1	In		100	0											1,432	*
16		15	-	4	-	0	In		98	2		0									8,415
		14	-	3	-	2	In		98	2		0									399	*
15	.5	14	-	4	-	1	In		96	3		0									5,275	*
15		14	-	5	-	0	In		92	7	0	1									25,448
		13	-	4	-	2	In		92	7	0	1									1,485	*
14	.5	13	-	5	-	1	In		86	12	0	2									14,548	*
14		13	-	6	-	0	100.0	%	73	21	1	5	0								59,499
		12	-	5	-	2	In		74	20	1	5									3,861	*
13	.5	12	-	6	-	1	99.9		59	30	3	9	0								31,453
		11	-	5	-	3	In		58	31	3	8									627	*
13		12	-	7	-	0	99.2		38	38	7	15	1	0	0						109,801
		11	-	6	-	2	99.5		40	38	7	14	1								7,680	*
12	.5	11	-	7	-	1	97.1		21	40	14	23	3	0							53,843
		10	-	6	-	3	97.3		24	38	13	23	3								1,159	*
12		11	-	8	-	0	89.4		8	32	22	28	10	1	0	0					165,053
		10	-	7	-	2	90.2		8	32	22	28	9	1	0						12,015	*
11	.5	10	-	8	-	1	75.1		2	18	27	28	20	4	0	0					74,175
		9	-	7	-	3	74.5		2	19	26	28	21	4	0						1,623	*
11		10	-	9	-	0	50.4		0	7	25	18	29	16	4	0	0				201,230
		9	-	8	-	2	51.0		0	7	25	18	29	16	4	0	0				15,308	*
10	.5	9	-	9	-	1	25.8		0	1	17	7	26	30	14	3	0	0			81,750
		8	-	8	-	3	24.8			2	17	7	26	31	15	3	0				1,946	*
10		9	-	10	-	0	11.8			0	10	2	11	27	29	15	4	0	0		201,466
		8	-	9	-	2	11.1			0	9	1	11	28	30	16	4	1	0		15,356	*
9	.5	8	-	10	-	1	4.1			0	4	0	2	12	30	32	16	3	0	0	73,958
		7	-	9	-	3	4.2				4	0	2	12	32	31	15	3	0		1,580	*
9		8	-	11	-	0	1.5			0	2	0	0	3	14	30	31	16	3	0	164,117
		7	-	10	-	2	1.3				1	0	0	3	14	30	31	16	3	0	12,159	*
8	.5	7	-	11	-	1	0.4				0		0	0	3	15	33	33	13	2	53,748
		6	-	10	-	3	0.2				0			0	3	15	34	34	12	2	1,112	*
8		7	-	12	-	0	0.1				0		0	0	1	5	20	37	29	8	110,510
		6	-	11	-	2	0.1				0			0	0	5	20	37	30	8	7,761	*
7	.5	6	-	12	-	1	0.0				0				0	1	7	28	44	21	31,448
		5	-	11	-	3	Out									0	9	28	41	22	619	*
7		6	-	13	-	0	0.0				0				0	0	2	16	44	38	59,129
		5	-	12	-	2	Out									0	2	13	45	40	3,891	*
6	.5	5	-	13	-	1	Out										0	6	35	59	14,884	*
6		5	-	14	-	0	Out										0	2	25	73	25,389
		4	-	13	-	2	Out										0	2	25	73	1,455	*
5	.5	4	-	14	-	1	Out											1	13	87	5,223	*
5		4	-	15	-	0	Out											0	7	92	8,653
		3	-	14	-	2	Out											0	7	92	409	*
4	.5	3	-	15	-	1	Out											0	3	97	1,352	*
4		3	-	16	-	0	Out												1	99	2,134	*
3	.5	2	-	16	-	1	Out												1	99	259	*
3		2	-	17	-	0	Out												0	100	405	*
1	-2.5						Out													100	240	*

Total:							41.9	%	11	11	10	9	9	8	8	8	7	7	6	5	1,678,304

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Games Above .500

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TW		W	-	L	-	T	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24

18.5	-20						100
18		17	-	2	-	0	99	1
17	.5	16	-	2	-	1	99	1
17		16	-	3	-	0	99	1
16	.5	15	-	3	-	1	96	4
16		15	-	4	-	0	95	5	0
15	.5	14	-	4	-	1	82	17	1	0
15		14	-	5	-	0	82	17	1	0
		13	-	4	-	2	55	34	10	1	0
14	.5	13	-	5	-	1	53	36	10	2	0	0
14		13	-	6	-	0	52	36	10	1	0	0			0
		12	-	5	-	2	18	35	29	14	4	1	0
13	.5	12	-	6	-	1	17	34	29	14	4	1	0	0	0
		11	-	5	-	3	2	9	19	30	24	13	3	0
13		12	-	7	-	0	16	33	30	15	4	1	0	0	1	0
		11	-	6	-	2	1	9	20	28	23	13	4	1	0	0
12	.5	11	-	7	-	1	1	7	19	27	24	14	4	1	3	0	0
		10	-	6	-	3		0	1	8	19	30	26	13	1	1	0	0
12		11	-	8	-	0	1	6	17	24	23	13	4	1	9	1	0	0
		10	-	7	-	2		0	1	6	15	27	28	14	4	4	1	0	0	0
11	.5	10	-	8	-	1	0	0	1	4	12	22	24	12	11	9	4	1	0	0	0
		9	-	7	-	3				0	0	5	24	46	1	4	6	6	5	2	1	0		0
11		10	-	9	-	0	0	0	1	3	8	15	16	9	23	17	7	2	0	0	0
		9	-	8	-	2				0	0	3	14	34	2	8	12	12	8	5	2	1	0	0	0
10	.5	9	-	9	-	1				0	0	1	7	18	3	11	17	18	13	8	3	1	0	0	0
		8	-	8	-	3							1	24		0	1	3	7	14	17	14	10	5	2	0	0
10		9	-	10	-	0				0	0	0	3	8	4	12	19	21	17	10	4	1	0	0	0
		8	-	9	-	2						0	0	11	0	0	1	4	9	16	19	18	12	7	3	1	0	0
9	.5	8	-	10	-	1							0	4	0	0	1	3	9	15	21	20	15	8	3	1	0	0
		7	-	9	-	3								4						0	3	7	14	20	22	16	10	3	1
9		8	-	11	-	0							0	1	0	0	1	3	8	15	21	21	16	9	4	1	0	0	0
		7	-	10	-	2								1				0	0	0	2	6	13	20	24	19	11	4	1	0
8	.5	7	-	11	-	1								0					0	0	1	5	12	20	23	20	12	5	1	0
		6	-	10	-	3								0									0	2	6	16	27	29	16	4
8		7	-	12	-	0								0				0	0	0	1	4	11	19	24	21	13	5	1	0
		6	-	11	-	2								0								0	0	2	6	17	26	28	16	4
7	.5	6	-	12	-	1								0								0	0	1	5	14	25	29	19	6
7		6	-	13	-	0								0							0	0	0	1	5	14	25	30	20	6
		5	-	12	-	2																			0	1	6	21	40	31
6	.5	5	-	13	-	1																			0	1	5	20	40	34
6		5	-	14	-	0																		0	0	1	5	20	41	34
		4	-	13	-	2																					0	4	27	69
5	.5	4	-	14	-	1																					0	4	25	71
5		4	-	15	-	0																					0	3	24	73
4	.5	3	-	15	-	1																					0	0	8	91
4		3	-	16	-	0																						0	7	93
3	.5	2	-	16	-	1																							3	97
3		2	-	17	-	0																						0	3	97
2	.5	1	-	17	-	1																							8	92
1	-2																													100

Total:							6	6	5	5	5	5	5	4	5	5	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	3	3	3	3	3	3	2