Philadelphia Phillies Playoff Chances 2018 50/50

Beat Braves 311.5-304, playoff odds up 8.5 to 41.8%

1-0-0 1.000

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

Chances based on how well the Phillies finish out the regular season. Explain

									100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TW		W	-	L	-	T	playoffs		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	Count

17.5	-20						In		100												842	*
17		16	-	3	-	0	In		100	0											2,187	*
16	.5	15	-	3	-	1	In		100	0											1,388	*
16		15	-	4	-	0	In		98	2		0									8,524
		14	-	3	-	2	In		98	2	0										468	*
15	.5	14	-	4	-	1	In		97	3	0	0									5,295	*
15		14	-	5	-	0	In		92	7	0	1									25,188
		13	-	4	-	2	In		92	7		1									1,465	*
14	.5	13	-	5	-	1	100.0	%	86	11	0	2	0								14,759	*
14		13	-	6	-	0	100.0		73	21	1	5	0								58,977
		12	-	5	-	2	100.0		73	21	1	5	0								3,893	*
13	.5	12	-	6	-	1	99.8		59	30	3	9	0								31,241
		11	-	5	-	3	99.8		56	31	3	10	0								643	*
13		12	-	7	-	0	99.1		38	38	7	15	1	0							109,764
		11	-	6	-	2	99.4		39	38	7	15	1								7,714	*
12	.5	11	-	7	-	1	97.2		21	41	14	22	3	0							53,814
		10	-	6	-	3	97.4		21	38	14	24	3	0							1,175	*
12		11	-	8	-	0	89.6		8	31	22	28	9	1	0						164,914
		10	-	7	-	2	89.8		9	32	22	28	9	1	0						12,081	*
11	.5	10	-	8	-	1	75.2		2	18	27	28	20	4	0	0					73,865
		9	-	7	-	3	75.4		2	19	25	30	20	4	0						1,659	*
11		10	-	9	-	0	50.2		0	7	25	18	29	16	4	0	0				201,413
		9	-	8	-	2	50.7		0	7	25	18	30	16	4	0	0				15,009	*
10	.5	9	-	9	-	1	25.8		0	1	17	7	26	30	15	3	0	0			82,335
		8	-	8	-	3	26.8			2	18	7	26	30	14	3	0				1,913	*
10		9	-	10	-	0	11.8			0	10	2	11	27	30	15	4	0	0		201,738
		8	-	9	-	2	11.1			0	9	1	11	28	30	15	4	0	0		15,369	*
9	.5	8	-	10	-	1	4.1			0	4	0	2	13	30	32	16	3	0	0	73,571
		7	-	9	-	3	4.5				4		2	12	30	32	16	3	0		1,628	*
9		8	-	11	-	0	1.5			0	2	0	0	3	14	30	31	16	3	0	165,178
		7	-	10	-	2	1.6				2		0	3	14	30	32	16	3	0	12,116	*
8	.5	7	-	11	-	1	0.4				0		0	0	3	15	34	33	13	2	54,015
		6	-	10	-	3	0.5				1			0	3	14	37	30	13	2	1,174	*
8		7	-	12	-	0	0.1				0			0	1	5	20	37	29	8	109,542
		6	-	11	-	2	0.1				0			0	0	4	19	37	31	8	7,826	*
7	.5	6	-	12	-	1	0.0				0				0	1	7	28	43	21	31,502
		5	-	11	-	3	Out									1	7	32	40	22	599	*
7		6	-	13	-	0	0.0				0					0	2	16	43	39	59,277
		5	-	12	-	2	Out									0	2	15	44	39	3,863	*
6	.5	5	-	13	-	1	Out										0	6	35	58	14,817	*
6		5	-	14	-	0	Out										0	2	24	74	25,398
		4	-	13	-	2	Out											2	23	76	1,510	*
5	.5	4	-	14	-	1	Out											1	13	86	5,267	*
5		4	-	15	-	0	Out											0	7	93	8,494
		3	-	14	-	2	Out												7	93	386	*
4	.5	3	-	15	-	1	Out												4	96	1,440	*
4		3	-	16	-	0	Out												1	99	2,190	*
3	.5	2	-	16	-	1	Out												0	100	242	*
3		2	-	17	-	0	Out												0	100	387	*
1	-2.5						Out													100	249	*

Total:							41.8	%	11	11	10	9	9	8	8	8	7	7	6	5	1,678,304

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Games Above .500

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TW		W	-	L	-	T	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24

18	-20						100
17	.5	16	-	2	-	1	100	0
17		16	-	3	-	0	99	1
16	.5	15	-	3	-	1	96	4	0
16		15	-	4	-	0	96	4	0
		14	-	3	-	2	81	18	2
15	.5	14	-	4	-	1	83	16	1	0
15		14	-	5	-	0	82	16	1	0
		13	-	4	-	2	55	33	11	1	0
14	.5	13	-	5	-	1	54	35	9	1	0	0			0
14		13	-	6	-	0	52	36	10	2	0	0			0
		12	-	5	-	2	18	35	28	15	3	1	0		0
13	.5	12	-	6	-	1	17	34	30	14	4	1	0	0	0
		11	-	5	-	3	2	7	22	26	26	13	3	0	0
13		12	-	7	-	0	16	33	30	15	4	1	0	0	1	0
		11	-	6	-	2	2	8	21	28	24	13	4	1	0	0
12	.5	11	-	7	-	1	1	7	19	27	24	13	4	1	3	0	0
		10	-	6	-	3		0	2	7	17	31	28	13	1	1	0	0
12		11	-	8	-	0	1	6	17	25	22	13	4	1	9	1	0	0
		10	-	7	-	2		0	1	6	15	27	28	14	5	4	1	0	0	0
11	.5	10	-	8	-	1	0	0	1	4	12	22	24	12	11	9	4	1	0	0
		9	-	7	-	3					0	5	22	48	1	5	7	5	5	2	0	0
11		10	-	9	-	0	0	0	0	3	8	14	16	9	23	17	8	2	0	0	0
		9	-	8	-	2				0	0	3	15	33	2	8	12	12	9	5	2	1	0	0	0
10	.5	9	-	9	-	1				0	0	1	7	18	3	11	17	18	13	8	3	1	0	0
		8	-	8	-	3							1	25		0	1	4	8	15	15	14	8	5	2	1		0
10		9	-	10	-	0				0	0	0	3	8	4	12	19	21	17	10	4	1	0	0	0
		8	-	9	-	2						0	0	11	0	0	1	4	9	15	19	17	12	7	3	1	0	0
9	.5	8	-	10	-	1							0	4	0	0	1	3	9	16	20	20	15	8	3	1	0	0	0
		7	-	9	-	3								4					0	0	2	6	14	19	22	18	10	3	0	0
9		8	-	11	-	0							0	2	0	0	1	3	8	15	21	21	16	9	4	1	0	0
		7	-	10	-	2							0	2					0	0	2	5	13	21	23	19	11	4	1	0
8	.5	7	-	11	-	1								0					0	0	1	5	12	20	23	20	12	5	1	0
		6	-	10	-	3								1									0	2	6	17	27	27	17	3
8		7	-	12	-	0								0				0	0	0	1	4	11	19	24	21	13	5	1	0
		6	-	11	-	2								0							0	0	0	2	7	16	26	28	17	5
7	.5	6	-	12	-	1								0							0	0	0	1	5	15	26	29	18	5
		5	-	11	-	3																			0	1	6	22	44	27
7		6	-	13	-	0								0							0	0	0	1	5	14	26	30	20	6
		5	-	12	-	2																			0	1	7	21	39	31
6	.5	5	-	13	-	1																			0	1	6	20	40	33
6		5	-	14	-	0																		0	0	1	5	20	40	34
		4	-	13	-	2																					0	4	24	71
5	.5	4	-	14	-	1																				0	0	4	25	71
5		4	-	15	-	0																					0	3	24	73
4	.5	3	-	15	-	1																						0	8	91
4		3	-	16	-	0																						0	7	93
3	.5	2	-	16	-	1																							2	98
3		2	-	17	-	0																							1	99
1	-2.5																													100

Total:							6	6	6	5	5	5	5	4	5	5	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	3	3	3	3	3	2