Toronto Blue Jays Playoff Chances 2018 50/50

Beat Rays 505.5-252, playoff odds up 8.5 to 41.9%

1-0-0 1.000

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

Chances based on how well the Blue Jays finish out the regular season. Explain

									100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TW		W	-	L	-	T	playoffs		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	Count

18	-20						In		100												593	*
17	.5	16	-	2	-	1	In		99	1											261	*
17		16	-	3	-	0	In		100	0											2,226	*
16	.5	15	-	3	-	1	In		99	1		0									1,380	*
16		15	-	4	-	0	In		98	2		0									8,362
		14	-	3	-	2	In		98	2											432	*
15	.5	14	-	4	-	1	In		96	3	0	0									5,413	*
15		14	-	5	-	0	In		92	7	0	1									25,435
		13	-	4	-	2	In		93	6		1									1,475	*
14	.5	13	-	5	-	1	In		86	12	0	2									14,359
		12	-	4	-	3	In		87	11		2									299	*
14		13	-	6	-	0	100.0	%	73	21	1	5	0								58,936
		12	-	5	-	2	In		73	21	1	5									3,827	*
13	.5	12	-	6	-	1	99.8		58	30	3	9	0								31,567
		11	-	5	-	3	In		62	27	3	8									651	*
13		12	-	7	-	0	99.2		38	39	7	15	1	0							109,983
		11	-	6	-	2	99.3		38	39	7	15	1								7,610	*
12	.5	11	-	7	-	1	97.1		21	40	14	22	3	0	0						53,765
		10	-	6	-	3	96.7		21	43	13	20	3	0							1,175	*
12		11	-	8	-	0	89.5		8	31	22	28	9	1	0						164,480
		10	-	7	-	2	90.4		8	32	22	28	9	1	0						12,214	*
11	.5	10	-	8	-	1	75.0		2	18	27	28	20	4	0	0					74,274
		9	-	7	-	3	74.5		2	17	27	28	21	4	1						1,625	*
11		10	-	9	-	0	50.6		0	7	25	18	29	16	4	0	0				200,728
		9	-	8	-	2	50.8		0	8	25	18	29	16	4	0	0				15,308	*
10	.5	9	-	9	-	1	26.1		0	2	18	7	26	30	14	3	0	0			82,624
		8	-	8	-	3	24.9			1	17	7	25	30	16	3	0				1,840	*
10		9	-	10	-	0	11.6			0	10	2	12	28	29	15	4	0	0		201,616
		8	-	9	-	2	11.4			0	10	1	12	28	29	16	4	0			15,298	*
9	.5	8	-	10	-	1	4.1			0	4	0	2	12	30	32	16	3	0	0	74,255
		7	-	9	-	3	4.1				4	0	2	12	29	33	16	3	0		1,682	*
9		8	-	11	-	0	1.6			0	2	0	0	3	14	30	31	16	3	0	164,512
		7	-	10	-	2	1.5				1		0	3	14	30	32	15	4	0	12,310	*
8	.5	7	-	11	-	1	0.4				0		0	0	3	15	33	33	13	2	53,774
		6	-	10	-	3	0.4				0			0	3	14	33	34	13	1	1,226	*
8		7	-	12	-	0	0.1				0			0	1	5	20	37	29	8	109,921
		6	-	11	-	2	0.0				0				1	4	19	38	30	8	7,737	*
7	.5	6	-	12	-	1	0.0				0				0	1	7	28	43	20	31,228
		5	-	11	-	3	Out									0	9	29	40	22	659	*
7		6	-	13	-	0	0.0				0				0	0	2	16	44	39	59,089
		5	-	12	-	2	Out									0	2	15	44	39	3,939	*
6	.5	5	-	13	-	1	Out									0	0	6	35	58	14,735	*
6		5	-	14	-	0	Out										0	2	24	74	25,357
		4	-	13	-	2	Out										0	2	22	76	1,498	*
5	.5	4	-	14	-	1	Out											0	13	86	5,302	*
5		4	-	15	-	0	Out											0	8	92	8,355
		3	-	14	-	2	Out											0	6	94	392	*
4	.5	3	-	15	-	1	Out											0	4	96	1,430	*
4		3	-	16	-	0	Out												1	99	2,286	*
1	-3.5						Out													100	861	*

Total:							41.9	%	11	11	10	9	9	8	8	8	7	7	6	5	1,678,304

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Games Above .500

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TW		W	-	L	-	T	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24

19	-20						100
18	.5	17	-	1	-	1	96	4
18		17	-	2	-	0	100
17	.5	16	-	2	-	1	99	1
17		16	-	3	-	0	99	1
16	.5	15	-	3	-	1	95	4	0
16		15	-	4	-	0	95	4	0
15	.5	14	-	4	-	1	83	16	1	0
15		14	-	5	-	0	83	16	1	0
		13	-	4	-	2	55	33	10	1	0
14	.5	13	-	5	-	1	53	36	10	2	0	0
14		13	-	6	-	0	52	36	10	2	0	0			0
		12	-	5	-	2	18	36	29	13	3	1		0
13	.5	12	-	6	-	1	17	34	29	15	4	1	0	0	0
13		12	-	7	-	0	16	33	30	15	4	1	0	0	1	0
		11	-	6	-	2	2	9	20	27	24	13	4	1	1	0
12	.5	11	-	7	-	1	1	8	19	27	24	14	4	1	3	0	0	0
		10	-	6	-	3		0	1	7	17	29	29	14	1	1	0	0
12		11	-	8	-	0	1	6	17	25	23	13	4	1	9	1	0	0
		10	-	7	-	2		0	1	5	15	26	28	14	4	3	2	0	0	0
11	.5	10	-	8	-	1	0	0	1	4	12	22	23	12	11	9	4	1	0	0
		9	-	7	-	3					0	4	24	46	1	4	7	6	4	3	1	0
11		10	-	9	-	0	0	0	1	3	8	15	16	9	23	17	7	2	0	0	0	0
		9	-	8	-	2				0	0	2	14	34	2	7	12	12	9	5	2	1	0	0	0
10	.5	9	-	9	-	1				0	0	1	7	18	3	10	17	18	13	8	3	1	0	0
		8	-	8	-	3							1	24		0	1	3	9	14	17	15	10	4	2	0	0
10		9	-	10	-	0				0	0	0	3	8	3	12	19	21	17	10	4	1	0	0	0
		8	-	9	-	2							0	11	0	0	1	4	9	15	19	17	13	7	3	1	0	0
9	.5	8	-	10	-	1							0	4	0	0	1	3	9	16	21	20	14	8	3	1	0	0
		7	-	9	-	3								4						0	2	5	14	21	23	16	11	4	1	0
9		8	-	11	-	0							0	2	0	0	1	3	8	15	21	21	16	9	4	1	0	0	0
		7	-	10	-	2								1					0	0	2	6	12	21	23	19	10	4	1	0
8	.5	7	-	11	-	1								0					0	0	1	5	12	20	24	20	12	5	1	0
		6	-	10	-	3								0									0	2	7	16	28	26	16	4
8		7	-	12	-	0								0					0	0	1	4	11	19	24	21	13	5	1	0
		6	-	11	-	2								0								0	0	1	6	16	26	28	17	5
7	.5	6	-	12	-	1								0								0	0	1	6	15	26	29	18	5
		5	-	11	-	3																			0	1	6	25	41	27
7		6	-	13	-	0								0								0	0	1	5	14	26	29	19	6
		5	-	12	-	2																		0	0	1	7	22	38	32
6	.5	5	-	13	-	1																		0	0	1	6	20	40	33
6		5	-	14	-	0																			0	1	5	19	40	35
		4	-	13	-	2																					0	4	26	70
5	.5	4	-	14	-	1																					0	4	24	72
5		4	-	15	-	0																				0	0	3	25	72
4	.5	3	-	15	-	1																						0	9	90
4		3	-	16	-	0																						0	8	92
3	.5	2	-	16	-	1																							1	99
3		2	-	17	-	0																							1	99
1	-2.5																													100

Total:							6	6	5	5	5	5	5	4	5	5	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	3	3	3	3	3	2