"...per the brilliant Sports Club Stats"
(thank you Mr. Dater)

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Thursday, 4/16100.0*Chance wins title100.0*Promoted100.0*Relegated100.0*Average seed
South Africa 3 Israel 6 No
No
+31.0
-0.7
New Zealand 4 China 7 -0.3
-0.3
-0.8
+0.0
Mexico 9 Bulgaria 1 +0.1
+0.1
+0.1
-0.0
Friday, 4/17100.0*Chance wins title100.0*Promoted100.0*Relegated100.0*Average seed
South Africa 3 New Zealand 1 -18.1
+0.3
Bulgaria 10 Israel 5 +3.7
-0.0
China 5 Mexico 2 +0.1
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Sunday, 4/19100.0*Chance wins title100.0*Promoted100.0*Relegated100.0*Average seed
South Africa vs China-36.4-12.0-11.9YesYesYes
+0.5-0.0-0.0-0.5-0.5-0.5
Israel vs Mexico+15.2+12.9+13.0-12.0-11.9-15.3
-0.2-0.1-0.1+0.2+0.2+0.2
New Zealand vs Bulgaria+9.9+9.9+9.9+9.8+9.9-11.3
-0.3-0.3-0.3-0.3-0.3+0.3

What If

Chances based on how well the South Africa finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100
If finish:ChanceChance will finish season at seed
TPW-OTL-OTwins titlePromoted123456RelegatedCount
61-00-0NoNo34372928.9%25,216,705
50-10-0NoNo475353.31,797,482
3-4NoNo100Yes27,004,553*
Total:NoNo16196565.3%54,018,740

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points
Chance Will Win Championship