"...per the brilliant Sports Club Stats" (thank you Mr. Dater) |
Bills Playoff Chances 2020-01
Plays NYJ, playoff odds down 0.02 to 76.1%
8-7-0 .533
Add your own league!
How are these numbers calculated?
Big Games
How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain
| Friday, 5/15 | 100.0* | Chance in playoffs | 100.0* | Average seed |
| PIT 17 BUF 38 | +9.8 | +1.3 | ||
| CIN 34 NE 30 | +6.4 | +0.3 | ||
| BAL 27 NYJ 24 | -0.2 | +0.0 | ||
| ARI 34 CLE 24 | +0.1 | |||
| OAK 14 JAX 33 | -0.1 | |||
| NO 14 IND 28 | -0.1 | |||
| KC 17 DEN 3 | -0.1 | |||
| TEN 10 HOU 17 | +0.0 | |||
| Saturday, 5/16 | 100.0* | Chance in playoffs | 100.0* | Average seed |
| NE 14 BUF 35 | +38.1 | +2.6 | ||
| NYJ 17 PIT 20 | -0.2 | |||
| TEN 35 NO 28 | -0.1 | |||
| ATL 30 JAX 35 | +0.0 | |||
| If winner is:HomeTieAway | ||||
| Sunday, 5/17 | 100.0* | Chance in playoffs | 100.0* | Average seed |
| BUF vs NYJ | InIn-58.5 | +1.6+1.6-3.9 | ||
| NE vs MIA | -5.1InIn | -0.3+1.6+1.6 | ||
| JAX vs IND | +0.1+0.0-0.1 | |||
| HOU vs TEN | +0.0-0.1-0.1 | |||
What If
Chances based on how well the BUF finish out the regular season. Explain
| 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | |||||||||||
| If finish: | Chance in | Chance will finish regular season at seed | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| TW | W | - | L | - | T | playoffs | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | Count | |||
| 8.5 | -9 | In | 100 | 2,090,195 | * | |||||||||||||||||||||
| 8 | 0 | - | 1 | - | 0 | 17.7 | % | 18 | 30 | 52 | 854,397 | |||||||||||||||
| Total: | 76.1 | % | 76 | 9 | 15 | 2,944,592 | ||||||||||||||||||||
* Row combines multiple less frequent records.
Games Above .500
Chance Will Make Playoffs
Lottery
Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.
Big Games
| Friday, 5/15 | 100.0* | Lottery seed |
| PIT 17 BUF 38 | -2.4 | |
| CIN 34 NE 30 | -0.5 | |
| ARI 34 CLE 24 | +0.2 | |
| KC 17 DEN 3 | +0.1 | |
| OAK 14 JAX 33 | +0.1 | |
| SF 35 ATL 42 | -0.1 | |
| NYG 35 MIA 17 | +0.0 | |
| DET 14 TB 19 | +0.0 | |
| NO 14 IND 28 | +0.0 | |
| LAC 28 MIN 21 | -0.0 | |
| BAL 27 NYJ 24 | +0.0 | |
| WAS 17 PHI 14 | -0.0 | |
| DAL 32 LAR 22 | -0.0 | |
| CAR 22 SEA 34 | +0.0 | |
| Saturday, 5/16 | 100.0* | Lottery seed |
| NE 14 BUF 35 | -4.8 | |
| ATL 30 JAX 35 | +0.2 | |
| TB 17 HOU 31 | -0.1 | |
| NYJ 17 PIT 20 | +0.1 | |
| TEN 35 NO 28 | +0.1 | |
| MIA 18 CIN 28 | +0.1 | |
| PHI 14 DAL 31 | -0.1 | |
| DEN 7 DET 0 | -0.0 | |
| SEA 47 ARI 14 | -0.0 | |
| CHI 7 KC 42 | -0.0 | |
| SF 10 LAR 23 | -0.0 | |
| If winner is:HomeTieAway | ||
| Sunday, 5/17 | 100.0* | Lottery seed |
| BUF vs NYJ | -2.7-2.7+6.6 | |
| NE vs MIA | +0.6-2.7-2.7 | |
| JAX vs IND | +0.1-0.3-0.1 | |
| NYG vs PHI | -0.1-0.2+0.1 | |
| DET vs GB | +0.0-0.2-0.0 | |
| DEN vs OAK | -0.0+0.1+0.1 | |
| LAR vs ARI | -0.0*-0.1+0.0 | |
* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.
What If
Where will we finish the regular season, league wide?
Doesn’t show any reseeding based on playoff results, or how seeds map to draft picks.
| 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | |||||||
| If finish: | Chance will finish season at seed | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| TW | W | - | L | - | T | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | |
| 8.5 | -9 | 100 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 8 | 0 | - | 1 | - | 0 | 18 | 14 | 37 | 28 | 4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Total: | 76 | 4 | 11 | 8 | 1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Updated Tuesday, 2023-11-7 2:10 PM Eastern (GMT-05:00)
