Trondheim Valkyrie Playoff Chances 3 50/50

Lost to Pirates 3-8, playoff odds down 6.6 to 53.2%

2 points 1 1-0

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Tuesday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
Pirates 8 Valkyrie 3	-6.7		-1.5		-0.7
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Vikings vs Kozaks	-0.5-0.7-1.1+0.3+0.3+0.6				-0.0-0.1-0.1-0.0*+0.0+0.1

Wednesday	None

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Valkyrie finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Pres		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Trophy		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	Count

62	-78						In		99.3	%	100															423	*
61		28	7		-	3	In		97.4		99	1														271	*
60		28	8		-	2	In		95.1		99	1														509	*
59		28	9		-	1	In		93.6		97	3														857	*
58		27	9		-	2	In		87.0		95	5	0													1,407	*
57		26	9		-	3	In		79.8		93	7	0													2,138	*
56		26	10		-	2	In		69.7		87	12	0	0												3,312	*
55		25	10		-	3	In		56.5		79	19	1	0												4,711	*
54		25	11		-	2	In		41.2		68	28	3	0												6,704	*
53		24	11		-	3	In		26.3		57	35	7	1	0											9,213	*
52		24	12		-	2	In		13.5		43	41	14	2	0											12,364	*
51		23	12		-	3	In		5.2		28	43	23	5	1	0										15,626	*
50		23	13		-	2	In		1.4		16	38	32	12	2	0	0									19,433	*
49		22	13		-	3	In		0.3		7	27	36	22	7	1	0	0								23,515	*
48		22	14		-	2	In		0.0		3	17	33	30	13	3	0									16,561	*
		21	13		-	4	In		No		1	10	27	33	20	6	1	0								10,819	*
47		21	14		-	3	100.0	%	0.0		0	4	16	32	28	15	4	1	0							20,957	*
		22	15		-	1	In		No		1	8	24	35	23	7	1	0								10,431	*
46		21	15		-	2	99.8		No		0	2	10	25	32	21	8	1	0							20,928	*
		20	14		-	4	99.4		No		0	1	5	18	31	28	14	4	1	0						14,271	*
45		20	15		-	3	97.8		No		0	0	2	9	23	32	23	10	2	0	0					17,358
		21	16		-	1	97.5		No			0	3	11	23	30	21	9	2	0	0					20,026	*
44		20	16		-	2	93.1		No			0	0	3	13	28	31	18	6	1	0	0				22,511	*
		19	15		-	4	84.0		No				0	1	6	20	30	27	12	3	0	0				16,454	*
43		19	16		-	3	62.8		No				0	0	2	9	22	31	24	10	2	0	0			27,072	*
		20	17		-	1	79.4		No				0	1	5	17	29	28	16	4	1	0				12,654
42		19	17		-	2	47.5		No				0	0	1	4	15	28	29	17	5	1	0			23,017	*
		18	16		-	4	28.8		No						0	1	7	20	31	25	12	3	0	0		16,525	*
41		18	17		-	3	13.8		No						0	0	3	11	25	31	21	7	1	0		17,429
		19	18		-	1	16.7		No						0	1	3	13	26	29	20	7	1	0	0	19,982	*
40		18	18		-	2	5.0		No							0	1	4	16	29	29	16	4	0	0	16,596
		17	17		-	4	3.1		No							0	0	3	11	25	32	21	7	1	0	18,546	*
39		17	18		-	3	0.7		No							0	0	1	4	15	29	30	16	4	0	32,029	*
38		17	19		-	2	0.2		No								0	0	1	7	21	33	26	9	1	13,653
		16	18		-	4	0.1		No									0	1	5	17	32	30	14	2	14,855	*
37		16	19		-	3	0.0		No									0	0	2	9	26	35	23	5	24,507	*
36		16	20		-	2	0.0		No									0	0	0	3	15	34	34	12	20,645	*
35		15	20		-	3	Out		No											0	1	8	26	42	23	16,444	*
34		15	21		-	2	Out		No											0	0	3	17	43	37	13,423	*
33		14	21		-	3	Out		No												0	1	9	39	51	10,196	*
32		14	22		-	2	Out		No												0	0	5	31	64	7,777	*
31		13	22		-	3	Out		No													0	2	24	74	5,514	*
30		13	23		-	2	Out		No														1	16	83	3,980	*
29		12	23		-	3	Out		No														0	10	90	2,629	*
28		12	24		-	2	Out		No															6	94	1,812	*
27		11	24		-	3	Out		No															4	96	1,124	*
26		11	25		-	2	Out		No															3	97	718	*
25		10	25		-	3	Out		No															2	98	423	*
24		10	26		-	2	Out		No															0	100	256	*
2	-23						Out		No																100	335	*

Total:							53.2	%	3.0	%	6	6	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	6	592,940

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Tuesday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Pirates 8 Valkyrie 3	+1.5
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Muckaneers vs Twisters	-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.0+0.2+0.0

Wednesday	None

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

64	-78						100
63		29	6		-	3	99	1
62		29	7		-	2	99	1
61		28	7		-	3	97	3
60		28	8		-	2	95	5
59		28	9		-	1	94	6	0
58		27	9		-	2	87	12	1
57		26	9		-	3	80	19	2
56		26	10		-	2	70	26	4	0
55		25	10		-	3	57	34	9	1	0
54		25	11		-	2	41	39	16	3	0	0
53		24	11		-	3	26	39	25	8	1	0
52		24	12		-	2	13	32	31	17	5	1	0	0
51		23	12		-	3	5	19	30	26	14	5	1	0	0
50		23	13		-	2	1	9	21	28	23	12	5	1	0	0	0
49		22	13		-	3	0	2	9	19	26	22	14	6	2	0	0	0
48		22	14		-	2	0	0	2	7	16	24	23	16	8	3	1	0
47		21	14		-	3	0	0	0	1	4	11	20	24	21	13	5	2	0	0
		22	15		-	1		0	0	1	6	12	20	23	19	11	5	1	0	0	0
46		21	15		-	2			0	0	1	4	10	18	23	22	14	7	2	0	0	0
		20	14		-	4				0	0	1	4	10	18	23	22	13	6	2	1	0	0
45		20	15		-	3					0	0	1	3	8	15	23	23	16	8	3	1	0	0
		21	16		-	1					0	0	1	4	10	17	20	20	14	8	3	1	0	0	0
44		20	16		-	2						0	0	0	2	6	13	21	23	19	11	5	1	0	0	0
		19	15		-	4								0	0	2	5	13	20	23	19	11	5	1	0	0
43		19	16		-	3								0	0	0	1	4	10	17	21	21	14	7	3	1	0	0	0
42		19	17		-	2										0	0	0	2	6	13	21	23	19	11	4	1	0	0	0
		18	16		-	4											0	0	1	3	9	15	21	21	16	9	4	1	0	0
41		18	17		-	3												0	0	0	2	5	11	18	22	20	13	6	2	0	0	0
40		18	18		-	2													0	0	0	1	3	8	16	22	22	16	8	3	1	0
		17	17		-	4															0	0	1	3	8	16	22	23	16	8	2	1	0	0
39		17	18		-	3															0	0	0	1	2	8	15	22	23	17	9	3	1	0	0
38		17	19		-	2																	0	0	0	1	5	11	19	24	21	12	5	1	0	0
37		16	19		-	3																			0	0	1	3	9	17	24	24	15	6	1	0
36		16	20		-	2																				0	0	0	2	7	16	25	26	17	6	1
35		15	20		-	3																					0	0	0	2	7	17	28	28	15	4
34		15	21		-	2																							0	0	2	8	20	32	28	10
33		14	21		-	3																								0	0	3	11	28	37	21
32		14	22		-	2																									0	1	5	19	40	35
31		13	22		-	3																									0	0	2	11	38	49
30		13	23		-	2																										0	0	6	30	63
29		12	23		-	3																											0	3	22	75
28		12	24		-	2																												1	16	83
27		11	24		-	3																												1	10	89
26		11	25		-	2																													7	93
25		10	25		-	3																													3	97
24		10	26		-	2																													2	98
23		9	26		-	3																													1	99
22		9	27		-	2																													1	99
2	-21																																			100

Total:							3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3