Fredericton Firebirds Playoff Chances 3 50/50

Plays Zigzagoons, playoff odds up 0.1 to 59.9%

2 points 1 0-0

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Tuesday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
Beavers 3 Giant Eagles 8					+0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Firebirds vs Zigzagoons	+6.1+5.5+5.7-1.6-1.5-6.7		+1.3+1.1+1.5-0.6-0.5-1.5		+0.6+0.6+0.6-0.2-0.2-0.7
Vikings vs Kozaks	+0.4+0.1+0.2-0.4-0.6-0.4
Muckaneers vs Twisters					+0.0-0.1-0.1-0.1+0.0+0.0

Wednesday	None

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Firebirds finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Pres		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Trophy		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	Count

63	-80						In		Yes		100															446	*
62		29	8		-	2	In		98.4	%	100	0														365	*
61		28	8		-	3	In		98.5		99	1														596	*
60		28	9		-	2	In		95.9		99	1														980	*
59		27	9		-	3	In		91.9		97	3														1,596	*
58		27	10		-	2	In		87.4		96	4	0													2,389	*
57		26	10		-	3	In		79.2		91	9	0													3,489	*
56		26	11		-	2	In		69.5		87	13	1													5,207	*
55		25	11		-	3	In		55.1		78	20	1	0												7,105	*
54		25	12		-	2	In		39.9		68	28	4	0	0											9,504	*
53		24	12		-	3	In		25.5		55	36	8	1	0											12,461	*
52		24	13		-	2	In		12.6		41	43	14	2	0											16,061	*
51		23	13		-	3	In		5.1		27	44	23	6	1	0										19,760	*
50		23	14		-	2	In		1.4		15	37	32	13	2	0	0	0								23,674	*
49		22	14		-	3	In		0.2		7	26	37	23	7	1	0									27,594	*
48		22	15		-	2	In		0.0		3	16	34	30	13	3	0	0								17,981	*
		21	14		-	4	100.0	%	0.0		1	10	28	33	20	7	1	0	0							13,619	*
47		21	15		-	3	100.0		No		0	4	18	32	28	13	3	0	0							16,211
		22	16		-	1	100.0		No		1	6	20	31	26	12	3	1	0							18,465	*
46		21	16		-	2	99.9		No		0	2	10	25	33	22	7	1	0							21,007	*
		20	15		-	4	99.5		No		0	1	5	17	30	29	15	4	1	0						16,106	*
45		20	16		-	3	97.2		No			0	1	8	21	32	25	11	3	0	0	0				25,540	*
		21	17		-	1	98.2		No		0	0	3	13	27	30	19	6	2	0						13,231	*
44		20	17		-	2	92.7		No			0	0	3	12	27	31	19	6	1	0	0				18,313
		19	16		-	4	85.9		No			0	0	2	9	21	30	24	11	3	0	0				21,047	*
43		19	17		-	3	67.2		No				0	0	2	10	24	31	23	8	2	0				17,922
		20	18		-	1	68.6		No				0	0	3	11	24	30	21	9	2	0	0			20,821	*
42		19	18		-	2	45.3		No				0	0	0	4	14	27	30	18	6	1	0	0		17,563
		18	17		-	4	33.8		No					0	0	2	9	22	29	24	11	2	0	0		19,986	*
41		18	18		-	3	15.2		No					0	0	0	3	12	25	30	20	7	1	0		34,670	*
40		18	19		-	2	4.3		No							0	1	4	13	28	30	18	6	1	0	17,813	*
		17	18		-	4	3.6		No						0	0	0	3	12	25	31	21	7	1	0	13,643	*
39		17	19		-	3	0.8		No							0	0	1	4	15	30	30	16	4	0	27,841	*
38		17	20		-	2	0.1		No									0	1	6	19	32	28	12	2	24,345	*
37		16	20		-	3	0.0		No									0	0	1	9	25	36	23	5	20,314	*
36		16	21		-	2	Out		No										0	0	3	15	34	35	13	16,686	*
35		15	21		-	3	Out		No											0	1	7	26	42	23	13,402	*
34		15	22		-	2	Out		No											0	0	3	17	43	38	10,166	*
33		14	22		-	3	Out		No											0	0	1	9	39	51	7,663	*
32		14	23		-	2	Out		No												0	0	5	31	64	5,675	*
31		13	23		-	3	Out		No													0	2	22	75	3,982	*
30		13	24		-	2	Out		No														1	16	83	2,719	*
29		12	24		-	3	Out		No														0	10	90	1,850	*
28		12	25		-	2	Out		No														0	6	94	1,202	*
27		11	25		-	3	Out		No															3	97	764	*
26		11	26		-	2	Out		No															2	98	454	*
25		10	26		-	3	Out		No															1	99	318	*
24		10	27		-	2	Out		No															2	98	152	*
23		9	27		-	3	Out		No															1	99	89	*
2	-22						Out		No																100	153	*

Total:							59.9	%	4.5	%	9	8	8	7	7	7	7	7	6	6	6	6	6	5	5	592,940

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Tuesday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Firebirds vs Zigzagoons	-1.3-1.2-1.2+0.3+0.3+1.4

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Wednesday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Skates vs Vikings	+0.0-0.0+0.0+0.1+0.1-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

63	-80						100
62		29	8		-	2	98	2
61		28	8		-	3	98	2
60		28	9		-	2	96	4
59		27	9		-	3	92	8	0
58		27	10		-	2	87	12	1	0
57		26	10		-	3	79	19	2	0
56		26	11		-	2	69	26	4	0	0
55		25	11		-	3	55	35	9	1	0
54		25	12		-	2	40	40	16	3	0	0	0
53		24	12		-	3	25	39	25	8	2	0	0
52		24	13		-	2	13	31	32	17	6	1	0	0
51		23	13		-	3	5	19	30	26	14	5	1	0
50		23	14		-	2	1	8	20	28	24	12	5	1	0	0
49		22	14		-	3	0	2	7	18	26	23	15	6	2	0	0
		23	15		-	1	0	3	9	19	25	22	13	6	2	0	0	0
48		22	15		-	2	0	0	2	8	18	25	23	15	6	2	0	0	0
		21	14		-	4	0	0	2	6	13	21	24	18	10	4	1	0	0
47		21	15		-	3		0	0	1	5	11	19	24	20	12	5	2	0	0	0
46		21	16		-	2				0	1	3	8	17	23	21	15	8	3	1	0	0	0
		20	15		-	4			0	0	0	1	4	10	19	24	21	13	6	2	0	0
45		20	16		-	3						0	1	2	6	14	21	22	18	10	4	1	0	0
		21	17		-	1					0	0	2	6	14	22	23	18	10	4	1	0	0
44		20	17		-	2							0	0	2	6	13	21	23	19	11	4	1	0	0	0
		19	16		-	4								0	0	2	5	12	20	23	20	12	5	1	0	0
43		19	17		-	3								0	0	0	1	4	10	17	22	21	14	7	3	1	0	0
42		19	18		-	2										0	0	1	2	6	14	21	23	18	10	4	1	0	0
		18	17		-	4												0	0	2	6	13	21	23	19	11	4	1	0	0
41		18	18		-	3											0	0	0	0	2	5	11	18	22	20	13	6	2	1	0	0
40		18	19		-	2														0	0	1	3	8	16	22	23	16	8	3	1	0	0
		17	18		-	4																0	1	3	8	15	23	22	17	9	3	1	0
39		17	19		-	3																0	0	0	2	7	15	22	23	17	9	3	1	0	0	0
		18	20		-	1															0	0	0	1	3	8	15	21	22	16	9	3	1	0
38		17	20		-	2																		0	0	1	5	11	19	24	21	13	5	1	0	0
37		16	20		-	3																			0	0	1	3	8	17	24	24	16	6	2	0
36		16	21		-	2																				0	0	0	2	7	16	25	26	17	6	1
35		15	21		-	3																						0	0	2	7	17	28	27	16	4
34		15	22		-	2																							0	0	2	8	20	32	28	11
33		14	22		-	3																								0	0	3	11	28	38	20
32		14	23		-	2																								0	0	1	5	19	40	35
31		13	23		-	3																										0	2	11	37	49
30		13	24		-	2																											1	6	30	63
29		12	24		-	3																												2	24	74
28		12	25		-	2																												1	14	85
27		11	25		-	3																												1	9	90
26		11	26		-	2																												0	5	94
25		10	26		-	3																													4	96
24		10	27		-	2																													3	97
23		9	27		-	3																													2	98
2	-22																																			100

Total:							4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	2	2