Fredericton Firebirds Playoff Chances 3

Plays Zigzagoons, playoff odds up 0.09 to 61.2%

2 points 1 0-0

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Tuesday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
Pirates 8 Valkyrie 3			*+0.1
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Firebirds vs Zigzagoons	+6.0+5.7+5.9-1.7-1.9-6.7		+1.3+1.3+1.2-0.4-0.5-1.5		+0.6+0.6+0.6-0.2-0.2-0.7
Vikings vs Kozaks	+0.4+0.4+0.1*-0.5-0.7-0.4				+0.0+0.0+0.0*-0.0-0.1-0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Wednesday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
H. Wolves vs Beavers					+0.0-0.0-0.1-0.0-0.0*-0.0
Muckaneers vs Zigzagoons					+0.0-0.1-0.1-0.0-0.1+0.0
W. Wolves vs Bruins			+0.1-0.1+0.1-0.0-0.0-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Firebirds finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Pres		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Trophy		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	Count

66	-80						In		Yes		100															319	*
65		30	6		-	3	In		99.5	%	99	1														192	*
64		30	7		-	2	In		99.4		100	0														326	*
63		29	7		-	3	In		99.1		99	1														633	*
62		29	8		-	2	In		98.3		99	1														1,145	*
61		28	8		-	3	In		96.3		99	1														1,936	*
60		28	9		-	2	In		93.6		97	3														3,136	*
59		27	9		-	3	In		91.4		96	4	0													5,117	*
58		27	10		-	2	In		84.7		93	7	0													7,471	*
57		26	10		-	3	In		75.8		89	10	0													11,003	*
56		26	11		-	2	In		64.5		83	16	1	0												15,969	*
55		25	11		-	3	In		51.2		75	23	2	0												22,308	*
54		25	12		-	2	In		35.5		63	31	5	0	0											29,503	*
53		24	12		-	3	In		21.5		51	39	10	1	0											38,874	*
52		24	13		-	2	In		10.6		36	44	18	3	0											49,429	*
51		23	13		-	3	In		3.9		23	42	26	7	1	0	0									59,999	*
50		23	14		-	2	In		1.0		12	35	34	15	3	0	0									71,841	*
49		22	14		-	3	In		0.2		5	23	36	25	9	1	0	0								82,997	*
48		22	15		-	2	In		0.0		2	14	32	32	15	4	0	0								55,331	*
		21	14		-	4	100.0	%	0.0		1	9	25	34	22	8	1	0	0							38,697	*
47		21	15		-	3	100.0		No		0	3	15	30	31	16	4	1	0	0						66,842	*
		22	16		-	1	100.0		No		1	6	21	33	26	11	2	0	0							35,144	*
46		21	16		-	2	99.8		No		0	1	8	23	33	24	9	2	0	0						51,748
		20	15		-	4	99.4		No		0	1	6	18	30	28	14	4	1	0						58,564	*
45		20	16		-	3	97.4		No		0	0	2	9	22	31	23	10	2	0	0					113,397	*
44		20	17		-	2	92.4		No			0	0	3	13	27	31	19	6	1	0	0				66,630	*
		19	16		-	4	83.8		No				0	1	6	19	31	27	13	3	0	0	0			48,878	*
43		19	17		-	3	68.6		No				0	0	3	11	24	30	21	8	2	0	0			112,430	*
42		19	18		-	2	48.7		No				0	0	1	4	15	29	29	16	5	1	0			60,966	*
		18	17		-	4	30.3		No					0	0	1	8	21	31	25	11	2	0	0		47,727	*
41		18	18		-	3	16.4		No				0		0	0	3	13	26	30	19	7	1	0	0	100,529	*
40		18	19		-	2	5.5		No					0	0	0	1	5	17	30	29	15	4	0	0	42,645
		17	18		-	4	3.8		No						0	0	0	3	12	26	31	19	6	1	0	48,692	*
39		17	19		-	3	0.9		No							0	0	1	5	17	31	29	14	3	0	80,239	*
38		17	20		-	2	0.1		No								0	0	1	7	21	33	26	9	1	68,811	*
37		16	20		-	3	0.0		No									0	0	2	11	28	35	20	4	57,555	*
36		16	21		-	2	Out		No										0	1	4	18	36	32	10	46,870	*
35		15	21		-	3	Out		No											0	1	9	29	41	19	36,981	*
34		15	22		-	2	Out		No											0	0	4	20	44	32	28,716	*
33		14	22		-	3	Out		No												0	2	12	41	46	21,537	*
32		14	23		-	2	Out		No												0	1	6	34	59	15,634	*
31		13	23		-	3	Out		No													0	3	27	70	10,955	*
30		13	24		-	2	Out		No													0	1	19	80	7,701	*
29		12	24		-	3	Out		No														0	13	86	5,028	*
28		12	25		-	2	Out		No														0	9	91	3,180	*
27		11	25		-	3	Out		No														0	6	94	2,051	*
26		11	26		-	2	Out		No															4	96	1,217	*
25		10	26		-	3	Out		No															1	99	702	*
24		10	27		-	2	Out		No															0	100	401	*
2	-23						Out		No																100	584	*

Total:							61.2	%	4.4	%	8	8	8	8	8	7	7	7	7	6	6	6	5	5	4	1,738,580

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Tuesday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Firebirds vs Zigzagoons	-1.3-1.2-1.3+0.3+0.4+1.4

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Wednesday	100.0*	Lottery seed
W. Wolves vs Bruins	-0.0+0.0+0.0*+0.1+0.0+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

66	-80						100
65		30	6		-	3	99	1
64		30	7		-	2	99	1
63		29	7		-	3	99	1
62		29	8		-	2	98	2
61		28	8		-	3	96	4	0
60		28	9		-	2	94	6	0
59		27	9		-	3	91	8	0	0
58		27	10		-	2	85	14	1	0
57		26	10		-	3	76	22	2	0		0
56		26	11		-	2	65	30	5	1	0
55		25	11		-	3	51	37	10	2	0	0
54		25	12		-	2	35	41	19	5	1	0	0
53		24	12		-	3	21	38	28	10	2	0	0
52		24	13		-	2	11	28	32	20	7	2	0	0	0
51		23	13		-	3	4	16	28	28	16	6	2	0	0	0
50		23	14		-	2	1	6	18	26	25	15	6	2	0	0	0	0
49		22	14		-	3	0	2	7	17	24	24	16	7	2	1	0	0	0
48		22	15		-	2	0	0	1	6	14	22	24	18	10	4	1	0	0	0
47		21	15		-	3		0	0	1	4	10	18	23	21	14	6	2	1	0	0	0	0
46		21	16		-	2			0	0	1	3	9	17	23	23	15	7	2	1	0	0	0
		20	15		-	4				0	0	1	3	9	17	23	22	15	7	2	1	0	0
45		20	16		-	3				0	0	0	1	3	8	15	21	22	16	9	4	1	0	0	0	0
44		20	17		-	2						0	0	0	2	5	12	20	23	19	11	5	1	0	0	0
		19	16		-	4								0	0	1	5	12	20	23	20	12	5	1	0	0	0
43		19	17		-	3							0	0	0	0	1	3	9	17	23	22	15	7	2	1	0	0
		20	18		-	1								0	0	0	2	5	11	17	21	19	13	7	3	1	0	0	0	0
42		19	18		-	2								0	0	0	0	1	2	7	14	21	23	17	10	4	1	0	0
		18	17		-	4											0	0	0	2	6	14	21	23	18	10	4	1	0	0	0
41		18	18		-	3												0	0	0	2	5	12	19	22	19	12	6	2	0	0	0	0
40		18	19		-	2													0	0	0	1	3	9	17	23	22	15	7	2	1	0	0	0
		17	18		-	4															0	0	1	3	9	17	23	22	15	7	2	0	0	0
39		17	19		-	3															0	0	0	1	3	9	16	22	22	16	7	3	1	0	0
38		17	20		-	2																0	0	0	0	2	5	12	21	24	20	11	4	1	0	0
37		16	20		-	3																		0	0	0	1	4	10	18	25	22	14	5	1	0
36		16	21		-	2																			0	0	0	1	3	8	18	26	25	14	5	1
35		15	21		-	3																						0	0	2	8	19	28	26	13	3
34		15	22		-	2																						0	0	1	2	10	22	32	25	8
33		14	22		-	3																							0	0	1	3	13	29	36	18
32		14	23		-	2																								0	0	1	6	21	41	30
31		13	23		-	3																										0	3	13	38	45
30		13	24		-	2																									0	0	1	6	33	59
29		12	24		-	3																											0	3	25	72
28		12	25		-	2																											0	2	17	81
27		11	25		-	3																												1	12	87
26		11	26		-	2																												0	9	91
25		10	26		-	3																												0	3	97
24		10	27		-	2																													1	99
23		9	27		-	3																													1	99
2	-22																																			100

Total:							4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	2	2	2