Turku Beavers Playoff Chances 3 50/50

Lost to Giant Eagles 3-8, playoff odds down 6.6 to 53.2%

2 points 1 1-0

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Tuesday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
Beavers 3 Giant Eagles 8	-6.7		-1.5		-0.7
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Vikings vs Kozaks	+0.4-0.3-0.2-0.1+0.2-0.4

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Wednesday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
H. Wolves vs Beavers	-7.1-1.5-2.0+5.9+5.8+6.4		-1.1*-0.3-0.6+0.9+1.0+1.0		-0.7-0.2-0.2+0.6+0.6+0.7

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Beavers finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Pres		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Trophy		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	Count

64	-78						In		Yes		100															138	*
63		30	7		-	1	In		99.0	%	99	1														101	*
62		29	7		-	2	In		99.4		99	1														172	*
61		28	7		-	3	In		97.2		99	1														285	*
60		28	8		-	2	In		96.9		99	1														517	*
59		27	8		-	3	In		93.4		98	2														884	*
58		27	9		-	2	In		87.6		94	5	0													1,393	*
57		26	9		-	3	In		80.2		91	9	0	0												2,232	*
56		26	10		-	2	In		69.4		85	14	1													3,160	*
55		25	10		-	3	In		55.8		78	20	2	0												4,754	*
54		25	11		-	2	In		40.3		68	28	4	0												6,907	*
53		24	11		-	3	In		26.4		56	36	7	1	0											9,283	*
52		24	12		-	2	In		13.6		41	43	14	2	0											12,119	*
51		23	12		-	3	In		5.2		27	43	23	5	1	0										15,623	*
50		23	13		-	2	In		1.4		15	37	32	12	2	0	0									19,507	*
49		22	13		-	3	In		0.2		6	27	36	22	7	1	0	0								23,284	*
48		22	14		-	2	100.0	%	0.0		2	14	31	31	17	4	1	0	0							27,763	*
47		21	14		-	3	100.0		No		0	5	18	32	28	13	3	0	0							14,804
		22	15		-	1	100.0		No		1	6	19	32	26	12	3	0	0							16,787	*
46		21	15		-	2	99.9		No		0	2	9	24	32	22	8	2	0	0						16,693
		20	14		-	4	99.5		No		0	1	7	19	30	26	13	3	0	0						17,959	*
45		20	15		-	3	97.4		No		0	0	2	9	23	31	22	9	2	0	0					37,273	*
44		20	16		-	2	92.2		No			0	0	3	12	27	31	19	7	1	0					18,519
		19	15		-	4	86.2		No			0	0	2	9	22	30	24	11	3	0	0				20,392	*
43		19	16		-	3	63.0		No					0	2	9	22	30	24	10	2	0	0			26,950	*
		20	17		-	1	79.8		No				0	1	5	16	29	29	16	4	0	0				12,778
42		19	17		-	2	46.8		No					0	1	4	14	28	30	17	5	1	0	0		22,989	*
		18	16		-	4	28.6		No						0	1	7	20	31	26	12	3	0	0		16,464	*
41		18	17		-	3	15.4		No					0	0	0	3	12	26	30	20	7	1	0	0	37,920	*
40		18	18		-	2	5.0		No							0	1	4	15	29	30	16	4	1	0	16,918
		17	17		-	4	3.3		No							0	0	3	11	24	31	21	8	1	0	18,320	*
39		17	18		-	3	0.5		No								0	1	4	15	29	31	17	4	0	15,081
		18	19		-	1	0.9		No								0	1	5	17	29	29	16	4	0	17,120	*
38		17	19		-	2	0.1		No								0	0	1	6	19	33	28	11	2	28,351	*
37		16	19		-	3	0.0		No									0	0	2	9	26	35	23	5	24,265	*
36		16	20		-	2	Out		No										0	0	4	15	34	35	12	20,641	*
35		15	20		-	3	Out		No										0	0	1	7	27	42	23	16,659	*
34		15	21		-	2	Out		No												0	3	17	43	37	13,226	*
33		14	21		-	3	Out		No												0	1	10	38	51	10,090	*
32		14	22		-	2	Out		No												0	0	5	32	63	7,596	*
31		13	22		-	3	Out		No													0	2	23	75	5,624	*
30		13	23		-	2	Out		No														1	16	83	3,936	*
29		12	23		-	3	Out		No														0	11	89	2,678	*
28		12	24		-	2	Out		No														0	7	93	1,805	*
27		11	24		-	3	Out		No														0	4	96	1,155	*
26		11	25		-	2	Out		No															2	98	794	*
25		10	25		-	3	Out		No															2	98	403	*
24		10	26		-	2	Out		No															1	99	280	*
23		9	26		-	3	Out		No															1	99	133	*
2	-22						Out		No																100	215	*

Total:							53.2	%	3.0	%	6	6	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	6	592,940

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Tuesday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Beavers 3 Giant Eagles 8	+1.4
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Vikings vs Kozaks	+0.0+0.1+0.1-0.0-0.1-0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Wednesday	100.0*	Lottery seed
H. Wolves vs Beavers	+1.5+0.3+0.4-1.3-1.3-1.3

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

64	-78						100
63		30	7		-	1	99	1
62		29	7		-	2	99	1
61		28	7		-	3	97	3
60		28	8		-	2	97	3	0
59		27	8		-	3	93	6	0
58		27	9		-	2	88	12	1
57		26	9		-	3	80	18	1	0	0
56		26	10		-	2	69	26	4	0
55		25	10		-	3	56	35	8	1	0
54		25	11		-	2	40	40	16	3	0	0
53		24	11		-	3	26	39	24	8	2	0	0
52		24	12		-	2	14	31	32	17	5	1	0	0
51		23	12		-	3	5	20	30	25	13	5	1	0	0
50		23	13		-	2	1	8	21	28	23	13	5	1	0	0
49		22	13		-	3	0	2	9	20	25	22	14	5	2	0	0
48		22	14		-	2	0	0	2	7	16	24	23	16	8	3	1	0	0
47		21	14		-	3		0	0	1	5	12	20	23	20	12	5	2	0	0	0
46		21	15		-	2			0	0	1	3	9	17	23	22	14	7	2	0	0	0		0
		20	14		-	4				0	1	2	6	12	19	22	19	11	5	2	0	0
45		20	15		-	3					0	0	0	2	6	14	21	23	18	10	4	1	0	0
		21	16		-	1					0	0	2	6	14	22	23	18	10	4	1	0	0
44		20	16		-	2						0	0	0	1	5	12	20	24	19	12	5	1	0	0	0
		19	15		-	4							0	0	1	3	8	15	20	21	17	10	4	1	0	0
43		19	16		-	3								0	0	0	1	3	7	15	21	22	17	9	4	1	0	0	0
		20	17		-	1								0	0	1	3	8	16	22	22	16	8	3	1	0	0
42		19	17		-	2										0	0	1	2	6	14	21	22	18	10	4	1	0	0
		18	16		-	4											0	0	0	2	6	13	21	24	18	11	4	1	0	0
41		18	17		-	3												0	0	0	2	5	11	18	22	20	13	6	2	0	0	0
40		18	18		-	2														0	0	1	3	8	16	23	23	16	8	3	1	0	0
		17	17		-	4															0	0	1	3	8	16	23	23	16	8	3	1	0	0
39		17	18		-	3																	0	0	2	6	14	21	23	18	10	3	1	0
		18	19		-	1																0	0	1	4	9	16	22	22	15	8	3	1	0	0
38		17	19		-	2																		0	0	1	5	11	19	24	21	12	5	1	0	0
37		16	19		-	3																			0	0	1	3	9	17	24	24	15	6	1	0
36		16	20		-	2																					0	0	2	7	16	25	26	17	6	1
35		15	20		-	3																						0	0	2	7	17	28	28	15	3
34		15	21		-	2																							0	0	2	8	21	32	28	10
33		14	21		-	3																								0	0	3	11	28	37	21
32		14	22		-	2																							0	0	0	1	5	20	39	35
31		13	22		-	3																									0	0	2	11	37	50
30		13	23		-	2																										0	1	5	31	63
29		12	23		-	3																											0	3	23	75
28		12	24		-	2																												1	15	84
27		11	24		-	3																												0	9	90
26		11	25		-	2																												0	6	94
25		10	25		-	3																													4	96
24		10	26		-	2																													2	98
23		9	26		-	3																													2	98
2	-22																																			100

Total:							3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3