Alma Wolverines Playoff Chances 50/50

Did not play, playoff odds up 0.05 to 39%

20 points 9 9-2

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Wednesday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Tier III	100.0*	Average seed
Mutants 4 Cerveza 2	-0.7				-0.0
Pirates 5 White Claws 3	+0.4
Canotiers 1 Old Dirty Skates 5			-0.1		+0.0
Ice Holes 3 Ride Warriors 4			+0.1

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Thursday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Tier III	100.0*	Average seed
Wolverines vs Golden Knights	+8.0+7.2+7.3-2.4-2.4-8.7		-1.1-1.1-1.0-0.1+0.0+1.2		+0.6+0.5+0.5-0.2-0.2-0.6
Mutants vs Rebels	-0.8-0.8-1.0+0.3+0.0+0.9
Sunshine vs Bootleggers	+0.9+0.2-0.1-0.8-0.8-0.8		+0.1+0.2+0.2+0.1-0.0-0.2		+0.0-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.1-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Wolverines finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Pres		Chance will finish regular season at seed															Tier
TP		W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Trophy		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	III		Count

60		20	0		-	0	In		89.3	%	94	6														No		187
59		19	0		-	1	In		71.4		100															No		7
58		19	1		-	0	In		70.8		81	19														No		48	*
57		18	1		-	1	In		45.5		61	36	2													No		88	*
56		18	2		-	0	In		35.3		54	40	7													No		385	*
55		17	2		-	1	In		18.0		35	47	17	1												No		768	*
54		17	3		-	0	In		10.3		26	48	23	3	0											No		2,339	*
53		16	3		-	1	In		2.8		13	42	36	8	0											No		3,850	*
52		16	4		-	0	In		1.0		7	34	42	16	2	0										No		9,748	*
51		15	4		-	1	In		0.1		2	17	43	30	7	1	0									No		13,780	*
50		15	5		-	0	In		0.0		1	9	34	38	15	2	0									No		28,945	*
49		14	5		-	1	In		No		0	2	18	40	31	9	1	0								No		37,630	*
48		14	6		-	0	100.0	%	No		0	1	11	34	36	15	2	0	0							No		38,490
		13	5		-	2	100.0		No		0	0	5	24	39	24	6	1	0							No		28,816	*
47		13	6		-	1	99.9		No			0	2	14	35	34	13	2	0	0						No		78,898	*
46		13	7		-	0	99.4		No			0	1	7	26	37	22	6	1	0						No		73,193	*
		12	6		-	2	98.7		No			0	0	3	18	36	30	10	1	0	0					No		50,143
45		12	7		-	1	95.7		No				0	1	9	29	36	20	4	0	0					No		106,024
		11	6		-	3	91.8		No				0	0	5	22	37	26	7	1	0					No		25,474	*
44		12	8		-	0	89.0		No				0	0	4	19	36	29	10	1	0					No		96,554
		11	7		-	2	79.1		No					0	2	11	31	36	18	3	0	0				No		84,762	*
43		11	8		-	1	63.4		No					0	0	5	21	37	28	8	1	0				No		138,888
		10	7		-	3	51.3		No					0	0	2	14	34	34	13	2	0				No		35,747	*
42		11	9		-	0	45.1		No						0	2	11	32	36	16	3	0	0			No		113,976
		10	8		-	2	30.1		No						0	1	6	24	39	25	6	0	0			No		102,850	*
41		10	9		-	1	16.3		No						0	0	2	14	35	34	13	1	0			No		149,946
		9	8		-	3	10.1		No							0	1	9	30	38	18	3	0			No		38,912	*
40		10	10		-	0	7.3		No							0	1	7	27	40	22	4	0	0		No		110,054
		9	9		-	2	3.4		No							0	0	3	19	39	31	8	0			No		99,742	*
39		9	10		-	1	1.1		No								0	1	10	33	39	15	1	0		0.0	%	131,491
		8	9		-	3	0.5		No								0	0	6	28	42	21	2	0		No		34,199	*
38		9	11		-	0	0.3		No								0	0	4	23	42	26	4	0		No		96,273	*
		8	10		-	2	0.1		No								0	0	2	17	42	33	6	0	0	0.0		71,555
37		8	11		-	1	0.0		No									0	1	8	33	43	13	1	0	0.1		119,080	*
36		8	12		-	0	0.0		No									0	0	4	25	46	21	3	0	0.4		58,045
		7	11		-	2	Out		No										0	2	19	48	27	4	0	0.9		50,410	*
35		7	12		-	1	Out		No										0	1	10	41	37	10	1	3.6		69,345	*
34		7	13		-	0	Out		No										0	0	6	34	43	16	1	8.2		31,564
		6	12		-	2	Out		No											0	4	29	45	20	2	12.9		25,729	*
33		6	13		-	1	Out		No											0	1	17	44	32	6	28.3		32,013	*
32		6	14		-	0	Out		No												0	10	38	41	11	46.3		24,195	*
31		5	14		-	1	Out		No												0	4	25	48	23	70.6		11,848	*
30		5	15		-	0	Out		No													2	16	48	35	85.2		8,159	*
29		4	15		-	1	Out		No													0	7	40	53	95.1		3,483	*
28		4	16		-	0	Out		No													0	4	33	64	98.2		2,084	*
27		3	16		-	1	Out		No														1	20	79	99.9		673	*
26		3	17		-	0	Out		No														0	13	87	Yes		356	*
25		2	17		-	1	Out		No															5	95	Yes		109	*
24		2	18		-	0	Out		No															6	94	Yes		49	*
20	-23						Out		No																100	Yes		196	*

Total:							39.0	%	0.0	%	0	1	2	3	5	7	9	12	13	14	13	11	6	2	1	2.3	%	2,241,100

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Wednesday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Ice Holes 3 Ride Warriors 4	-0.0
Dragoons 2 Arsenal 1	+0.0
Canotiers 1 Old Dirty Skates 5	-0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Thursday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Wolverines vs Golden Knights	-1.1-1.0-1.0+0.3+0.3+1.2
Sunshine vs Bootleggers	-0.1+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.1+0.0
Camels vs Lumber	+0.0+0.0+0.1*+0.0+0.0-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

						100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:						Chance will finish season at seed
TP	W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

60	20	0		-	0	89	11
59	19	0		-	1	71	29
58	19	1		-	0	71	23	6
57	18	1		-	1	45	51	2	1
56	18	2		-	0	35	45	17	2	0
55	17	2		-	1	18	40	27	12	3
54	17	3		-	0	10	30	34	19	5	1	0
53	16	3		-	1	3	15	31	30	16	5	1	0	0
52	16	4		-	0	1	7	21	31	25	12	3	1	0
51	15	4		-	1	0	1	6	18	29	26	14	5	1	0
50	15	5		-	0	0	0	2	8	19	27	25	14	5	1	0	0
49	14	5		-	1		0	0	1	5	14	25	26	18	8	2	0	0
48	14	6		-	0			0	0	1	5	13	23	25	19	10	3	1	0	0
47	13	6		-	1				0	0	0	2	7	17	25	25	15	6	2	0	0
46	13	7		-	0					0	0	0	2	8	18	25	24	15	6	1	0	0	0
	12	6		-	2						0	0	1	3	10	19	26	23	13	5	1	0	0	0
45	12	7		-	1							0	0	0	2	8	17	25	24	15	6	1	0	0
44	12	8		-	0								0	0	0	2	8	17	25	24	15	6	2	0	0
	11	7		-	2									0	0	1	3	10	20	27	22	12	4	1	0	0
43	11	8		-	1										0	0	1	3	9	20	27	23	13	4	1	0	0
	10	7		-	3										0	0	0	1	5	14	24	27	18	8	2	0	0
42	11	9		-	0											0	0	1	3	9	20	27	23	12	4	1	0	0
	10	8		-	2											0	0	0	1	4	12	23	28	21	9	2	0	0
41	10	9		-	1												0	0	0	1	4	12	24	28	20	8	2	0	0
	9	8		-	3														0	0	2	8	19	28	25	13	4	1	0
40	10	10		-	0														0	0	1	5	14	26	28	18	7	1	0	0
	9	9		-	2															0	0	2	7	19	29	26	13	3	0	0	0
39	9	10		-	1																0	0	2	9	22	30	24	10	2	0	0	0
	8	9		-	3																0	0	1	5	17	29	28	15	4	0	0
38	9	11		-	0																	0	0	3	12	25	31	20	7	1	0
	8	10		-	2																0	0	0	1	7	20	32	26	11	2	0	0
37	8	11		-	1																	0	0	0	2	9	24	33	23	8	1	0	0
36	8	12		-	0																		0	0	1	4	16	31	30	14	3	0	0
	7	11		-	2																		0	0	0	2	10	26	34	21	6	1	0
35	7	12		-	1																			0	0	0	4	16	31	31	15	3	0	0
34	7	13		-	0																				0	0	1	7	22	34	25	9	1	0
33	6	13		-	1																						0	2	9	26	34	22	6	1	0
32	6	14		-	0																						0	0	4	16	33	32	12	2	0
31	5	14		-	1																							0	1	6	22	37	27	7	0
30	5	15		-	0																								0	2	13	33	37	15	0
29	4	15		-	1																									0	5	22	43	29	2
28	4	16		-	0																									0	2	12	38	44	4
27	3	16		-	1																										0	5	29	57	8
26	3	17		-	0																											1	24	62	13
25	2	17		-	1																												8	73	18
24	2	18		-	0																												4	59	37
23	1	18		-	1																													14	86
22	1	19		-	0																													50	50
21	0	19		-	1																														100
20	0	20		-	0																													25	75

Total:						0	0	0	0	1	1	1	2	2	3	3	4	4	5	5	6	6	7	7	8	8	7	7	5	4	2	1	1	0	0