Stockholm Segelviken Playoff Chances

Lost to Golden Knights 2-3 (so), playoff odds down 2.1 to 46.7%

3 points 1 1-1

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Wednesday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Tier III	100.0*	Average seed
Segelviken 2 Golden Knights 3 (so)	-2.1		-0.4		+1.0		-0.2
Ice Floors 5 Turtles 1	*+0.1				-0.1
H Rebels 11 Flatpacks 1	*+0.1				-0.1
Dirty Skates 0 Wolverines 5					-0.1

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Thursday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Tier III	100.0*	Average seed
Sharks vs Bruins	+0.5+0.1+0.3-0.6-0.8-0.4						+0.0+0.0+0.0*-0.1-0.1-0.0
Dynamo vs Lumberjacks							+0.0-0.0-0.1-0.0-0.0+0.0
R Rebels vs Sand Lions					-0.1+0.2+0.2+0.3+0.4+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Segelviken finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Pres		Chance will finish regular season at seed															Tier
TP		W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Trophy		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	III		Count

64	-77						In		Yes		100															No		403	*
63		29	6		-	2	In		96.8	%	99	1														No		188	*
62		29	7		-	1	In		99.0		99	1														No		298	*
61		28	7		-	2	In		96.4		99	1														No		740	*
60		28	8		-	1	In		94.1		98	2														No		1,228	*
59		27	8		-	2	In		90.1		95	5														No		2,277	*
58		27	9		-	1	In		83.3		91	9	0													No		3,643	*
57		26	9		-	2	In		75.8		88	12	0													No		6,221	*
56		26	10		-	1	In		64.1		80	18	1	0												No		9,546	*
55		25	10		-	2	In		51.0		72	26	3	0												No		14,910	*
54		25	11		-	1	In		35.9		60	34	6	0	0											No		21,527	*
53		24	11		-	2	In		22.2		47	40	11	1	0	0										No		31,451	*
52		24	12		-	1	In		11.1		33	44	19	3	0	0										No		42,227	*
51		23	12		-	2	In		4.5		21	42	27	8	1	0	0									No		58,112	*
50		23	13		-	1	In		1.2		11	34	35	16	3	0	0									No		73,961	*
49		22	13		-	2	In		0.2		5	23	36	25	9	1	0	0								No		95,264	*
48		22	14		-	1	100.0	%	0.0		1	12	29	33	19	5	1	0	0							No		113,112	*
47		21	14		-	2	100.0		0.0		0	5	18	32	28	13	3	0	0	0						No		138,099	*
46		21	15		-	1	99.8		No		0	1	7	22	32	25	10	2	0	0						No		155,737	*
45		20	15		-	2	98.5		No		0	0	2	11	25	32	21	8	1	0	0					No		178,628	*
44		20	16		-	1	95.2		No			0	0	4	15	30	30	16	4	1	0	0				No		99,107
		19	15		-	3	90.3		No			0	0	2	9	24	32	23	8	1	0	0				No		90,876	*
43		19	16		-	2	77.7		No			0	0	1	4	15	29	30	17	5	1	0	0			No		207,234	*
42		19	17		-	1	58.9		No				0	0	1	6	19	32	27	12	3	0	0			No		108,118
		18	16		-	3	44.5		No					0	0	3	13	28	31	18	5	1	0			No		100,226	*
41		18	17		-	2	26.6		No					0	0	1	6	19	31	27	12	3	0	0	0	No		212,088	*
40		18	18		-	1	11.8		No						0	0	2	10	25	32	22	8	1	0	0	No		104,894
		17	17		-	3	6.1		No						0	0	1	5	18	32	28	13	3	0	0	0.0	%	97,648	*
39		17	18		-	2	2.0		No						0	0	0	2	10	25	33	22	7	1	0	0.1		108,464
		18	19		-	0	2.8		No						0	0	0	3	11	26	32	21	7	1	0	0.1		88,653	*
38		17	19		-	1	0.4		No								0	0	3	14	29	32	17	4	0	1.3		176,837	*
37		16	19		-	2	0.1		No								0	0	1	6	19	33	29	11	1	7.4		162,104	*
36		16	20		-	1	0.0		No								0	0	0	2	10	27	36	21	4	24.7		138,313	*
35		15	20		-	2	0.0		No									0	0	0	4	17	36	32	10	49.5		119,783	*
34		15	21		-	1	Out		No											0	1	9	30	41	19	74.0		95,921	*
33		14	21		-	2	Out		No											0	0	4	21	44	31	88.8		78,917	*
32		14	22		-	1	Out		No												0	2	13	42	44	96.4		59,500	*
31		13	22		-	2	Out		No												0	1	7	36	56	99.0		46,308	*
30		13	23		-	1	Out		No												0	0	4	28	68	99.8		33,058	*
29		12	23		-	2	Out		No													0	2	21	78	99.9		24,359	*
28		12	24		-	1	Out		No													0	1	15	84	100.0		16,220	*
27		11	24		-	2	Out		No														0	10	90	Yes		11,335	*
26		11	25		-	1	Out		No														0	6	94	Yes		7,078	*
25		10	25		-	2	Out		No															3	97	Yes		4,616	*
24		10	26		-	1	Out		No															2	98	Yes		2,619	*
23		9	26		-	2	Out		No															1	99	Yes		1,602	*
22		9	27		-	1	Out		No															1	99	Yes		861	*
21		8	27		-	2	Out		No															0	100	Yes		492	*
20		8	28		-	1	Out		No															0	100	Yes		271	*
3	-19						Out		No																100	Yes		526	*

Total:							46.7	%	1.6	%	3	4	5	6	6	7	7	8	8	8	8	8	8	7	6	14.5	%	3,145,600

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Wednesday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Segelviken 2 Golden Knights 3 (so)	+0.4

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Thursday	100.0*	Lottery seed
R Rebels vs Sand Lions	-0.0+0.1+0.0+0.0+0.1+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

64	-77						100
63		29	6		-	2	97	3
62		29	7		-	1	99	1
61		28	7		-	2	96	4
60		28	8		-	1	94	6	0
59		27	8		-	2	90	10	0
58		27	9		-	1	83	16	1
57		26	9		-	2	76	22	2	0
56		26	10		-	1	64	30	5	1	0
55		25	10		-	2	51	37	11	2	0	0
54		25	11		-	1	36	41	18	4	1	0
53		24	11		-	2	22	39	27	10	2	0	0	0
52		24	12		-	1	11	29	32	19	7	2	0	0
51		23	12		-	2	4	18	30	27	15	5	1	0	0
50		23	13		-	1	1	7	19	28	24	14	5	1	0	0	0
49		22	13		-	2	0	2	9	19	26	23	14	6	2	0	0	0
48		22	14		-	1	0	0	2	7	16	24	24	16	7	2	1	0	0
47		21	14		-	2	0	0	0	2	6	13	22	24	18	10	4	1	0	0	0		0
46		21	15		-	1			0	0	1	3	9	17	23	22	14	7	2	1	0	0
45		20	15		-	2				0	0	0	2	6	13	20	23	19	11	5	1	0	0	0	0
44		20	16		-	1					0	0	0	1	3	9	18	23	22	14	7	2	0	0	0
		19	15		-	3						0	0	0	1	4	11	19	24	21	13	5	2	0	0	0
43		19	16		-	2							0	0	0	1	3	9	16	22	22	15	8	3	1	0	0	0
42		19	17		-	1									0	0	0	2	5	13	21	24	19	11	4	1	0	0	0
		18	16		-	3										0	0	0	2	6	14	22	23	18	9	3	1	0	0	0	0
41		18	17		-	2										0	0	0	0	2	5	12	19	23	20	12	5	2	0	0	0
40		18	18		-	1												0	0	0	1	3	8	16	23	23	15	7	2	0	0	0
		17	17		-	3													0	0	0	1	4	10	18	24	22	14	6	2	0	0	0
39		17	18		-	2														0	0	0	1	3	9	17	23	22	15	7	2	1	0	0
38		17	19		-	1															0	0	0	1	2	7	15	23	24	17	8	3	1	0	0
		16	18		-	3																0	0	0	1	3	9	18	24	22	14	6	2	0	0
37		16	19		-	2																	0	0	0	1	3	9	18	24	22	14	6	1	0	0
36		16	20		-	1																			0	0	0	2	7	16	24	25	16	7	1	0
35		15	20		-	2																				0	0	0	2	7	16	26	26	16	6	1
34		15	21		-	1																					0	0	0	2	7	17	28	28	15	3
33		14	21		-	2																						0	0	0	2	9	21	32	26	9
32		14	22		-	1																								0	0	3	12	29	36	19
31		13	22		-	2																								0	0	1	6	21	41	31
30		13	23		-	1																								0	0	0	2	13	38	46
29		12	23		-	2																									0	0	1	7	33	60
28		12	24		-	1																										0	0	3	25	71
27		11	24		-	2																											0	2	18	81
26		11	25		-	1																											0	1	12	88
25		10	25		-	2																												0	7	93
24		10	26		-	1																												0	4	96
23		9	26		-	2																													3	97
22		9	27		-	1																													2	98
21		8	27		-	2																													1	99
20		8	28		-	1																													1	99
3	-19																																			100

Total:							2	2	2	2	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	3