Montreal Savage Playoff Chances

Beat Bombers 3-2, playoff odds up 7.1 to 68.5%

5 points 2 0-1

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Wednesday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Tier III	100.0*	Average seed
Savage 3 Bombers 2	+6.0		+1.3		-2.4		+0.6
Dirty Skates 0 Wolverines 5			-0.1		-0.1
Ice Floors 5 Turtles 1					-0.1

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Thursday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Tier III	100.0*	Average seed
Sharks vs Bruins	-0.4-0.4-0.1+0.1-0.1+0.4

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Savage finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Pres		Chance will finish regular season at seed															Tier
TP		W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Trophy		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	III		Count

65	-79						In		99.9	%	100															No		1,047	*
64		29	7		-	1	In		99.1		100	0														No		740	*
63		28	7		-	2	In		98.7		100	0														No		1,452	*
62		28	8		-	1	In		97.8		100	0														No		2,520	*
61		27	8		-	2	In		96.1		99	1														No		4,394	*
60		27	9		-	1	In		93.1		98	2														No		6,707	*
59		26	9		-	2	In		89.4		97	3	0													No		11,209	*
58		26	10		-	1	In		83.1		95	5	0													No		16,056	*
57		25	10		-	2	In		74.5		91	8	0	0												No		24,323	*
56		25	11		-	1	In		63.3		87	13	1	0												No		33,534	*
55		24	11		-	2	In		50.4		80	19	1	0												No		48,130	*
54		24	12		-	1	In		34.6		70	27	3	0	0											No		61,422	*
53		23	12		-	2	In		21.8		58	35	7	0	0	0										No		81,601	*
52		23	13		-	1	In		10.6		44	42	13	2	0	0										No		98,972	*
51		22	13		-	2	In		4.3		31	44	21	4	0	0	0									No		123,714	*
50		22	14		-	1	In		1.2		18	40	31	10	2	0	0									No		141,561	*
49		21	14		-	2	In		0.2		9	30	36	19	5	1	0									No		166,438	*
48		21	15		-	1	100.0	%	0.0		3	18	34	29	13	3	0	0	0							No		179,306	*
47		20	15		-	2	100.0		No		1	7	24	34	24	9	2	0	0							No		110,287
		21	16		-	0	100.0		0.0		1	9	25	33	22	8	2	0	0							No		90,953	*
46		20	16		-	1	99.9		No		0	3	14	30	31	17	5	1	0	0						No		110,930
		19	15		-	3	99.9		No		0	1	9	24	33	23	8	2	0	0						No		92,745	*
45		19	16		-	2	99.2		No		0	0	3	14	29	30	17	5	1	0	0					No		117,542
		20	17		-	0	99.1		No		0	1	5	16	29	29	16	5	1	0	0					No		96,199	*
44		19	17		-	1	96.7		No			0	1	6	19	31	27	12	3	0	0					No		112,679	*
		18	16		-	3	93.1		No			0	0	3	13	27	31	19	6	1	0	0				No		93,672	*
43		18	17		-	2	82.0		No		0	0	0	1	6	18	30	27	14	4	1	0		0		No		205,202	*
42		18	18		-	1	62.6		No				0	0	1	8	22	31	25	10	2	0	0			No		100,791
		17	17		-	3	47.5		No					0	1	4	15	29	30	17	5	1	0			No		86,066	*
41		17	18		-	2	26.7		No				0	0	0	1	6	19	31	27	12	3	0	0		No		96,276
		18	19		-	0	30.9		No					0	0	2	8	21	30	25	11	3	0	0		No		79,413	*
40		17	19		-	1	9.2		No						0	0	1	8	21	31	25	11	2	0	0	0.0	%	151,405	*
39		16	19		-	2	2.4		No							0	0	2	10	24	32	23	8	1	0	0.1		134,480	*
38		16	20		-	1	0.3		No							0	0	0	3	12	27	32	20	6	1	1.3		110,034	*
37		15	20		-	2	0.1		No								0	0	1	4	16	32	31	14	2	7.5		92,844	*
36		15	21		-	1	0.0		No									0	0	1	7	23	37	26	6	25.2		71,650	*
35		14	21		-	2	Out		No										0	0	3	14	33	37	14	49.7		56,207	*
34		14	22		-	1	Out		No										0	0	1	6	24	43	26	74.6		40,983	*
33		13	22		-	2	Out		No											0	0	2	16	43	39	89.1		30,664	*
32		13	23		-	1	Out		No												0	1	8	38	53	96.5		21,182	*
31		12	23		-	2	Out		No													0	4	30	65	98.9		14,937	*
30		12	24		-	1	Out		No													0	2	22	76	99.8		9,528	*
29		11	24		-	2	Out		No													0	1	15	84	100.0		6,340	*
28		11	25		-	1	Out		No														0	10	90	Yes		3,818	*
27		10	25		-	2	Out		No														0	6	94	Yes		2,459	*
26		10	26		-	1	Out		No														0	3	97	Yes		1,305	*
25		9	26		-	2	Out		No															2	98	Yes		817	*
24		9	27		-	1	Out		No															2	98	Yes		400	*
23		8	27		-	2	Out		No															0	100	Yes		208	*
5	-22						Out		No																100	Yes		458	*

Total:							68.5	%	5.1	%	11	10	9	9	8	8	7	7	6	6	5	5	4	3	3	5.5	%	3,145,600

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Wednesday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Savage 3 Bombers 2	-1.3

Thursday	None

What If

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

66	-79						100
65		29	6		-	2	100	0
64		29	7		-	1	99	1
63		28	7		-	2	99	1
62		28	8		-	1	98	2
61		27	8		-	2	96	4	0
60		27	9		-	1	93	7	0
59		26	9		-	2	89	10	0	0
58		26	10		-	1	83	16	1	0
57		25	10		-	2	74	23	2	0	0
56		25	11		-	1	63	30	6	0	0
55		24	11		-	2	50	37	11	2	0	0
54		24	12		-	1	35	42	19	4	1	0	0
53		23	12		-	2	22	38	27	10	2	0	0
52		23	13		-	1	11	29	32	19	7	1	0	0	0
51		22	13		-	2	4	18	30	27	15	5	1	0	0	0
50		22	14		-	1	1	7	19	28	24	14	5	1	0	0	0
49		21	14		-	2	0	2	9	19	26	23	14	5	1	0	0	0
48		21	15		-	1	0	0	2	7	17	24	23	16	7	2	1	0	0	0	0
47		20	15		-	2		0	0	1	5	13	21	24	19	10	4	1	0	0		0
		21	16		-	0	0	0	0	2	7	15	22	23	17	9	3	1	0	0	0
46		20	16		-	1		0	0	0	1	5	12	20	24	20	12	5	1	0	0	0	0
		19	15		-	3		0	0	0	0	2	6	15	22	23	18	9	3	1	0	0
45		19	16		-	2			0	0	0	0	2	6	13	20	23	19	11	5	1	0	0	0
44		19	17		-	1						0	0	1	3	9	18	24	22	14	6	2	0	0	0	0
		18	16		-	3						0	0	0	1	4	11	19	24	21	12	5	2	0	0	0
43		18	17		-	2						0	0	0	0	1	3	9	17	22	22	15	8	3	1	0	0	0
42		18	18		-	1									0	0	0	1	4	10	18	23	21	14	7	2	1	0	0	0
41		17	18		-	2										0	0	0	0	2	5	12	19	23	20	12	5	2	0	0	0	0
40		17	19		-	1												0	0	0	0	2	6	13	21	23	18	10	4	1	0	0	0
39		16	19		-	2														0	0	0	1	3	9	17	23	22	15	7	2	1	0	0
38		16	20		-	1																0	0	0	1	5	12	20	24	20	11	4	1	0	0
37		15	20		-	2																	0	0	0	1	3	9	18	24	22	14	6	1	0	0
36		15	21		-	1																		0	0	0	0	2	7	16	24	25	17	7	2	0
35		14	21		-	2																				0	0	0	2	7	16	25	26	17	6	1
34		14	22		-	1																					0	0	0	2	7	17	28	28	15	3
33		13	22		-	2																						0	0	0	2	8	21	32	27	9
32		13	23		-	1																								0	0	3	12	29	37	18
31		12	23		-	2																								0	0	1	6	21	40	31
30		12	24		-	1																									0	0	2	13	39	46
29		11	24		-	2																										0	1	7	33	59
28		11	25		-	1																											0	3	24	72
27		10	25		-	2																												1	18	81
26		10	26		-	1																												1	12	88
25		9	26		-	2																												0	7	93
24		9	27		-	1																													7	94
23		8	27		-	2																													4	96
22		8	28		-	1																													3	97
21		7	28		-	2																													3	97
5	-20																																			100

Total:							5	5	5	5	5	5	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	2	2	2	2	2	2	1	1