Salt Lake City Sand Lions Playoff Chances 50/50

Did not play, playoff odds up 0.2 to 45.4%

1 points 0 1-1

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Wednesday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Tier III	100.0*	Average seed
Savage 3 Bombers 2							+0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Thursday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Tier III	100.0*	Average seed
R Rebels vs Sand Lions	-6.8-1.8-1.4+5.7+5.9+6.3		-0.7-0.4*-0.1+0.6+0.6+0.7		+4.5+0.6+0.8-3.9-3.9-4.1		-0.7-0.2-0.2+0.6+0.6+0.6
Sharks vs Bruins	-0.4-0.3-0.4-0.4+0.1+0.5
Arsenal vs Shamrocks							+0.0-0.1-0.0-0.1-0.1+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Sand Lions finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Pres		Chance will finish regular season at seed															Tier
TP		W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Trophy		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	III		Count

63	-77						In		Yes		100															No		209	*
62		30	7		-	1	In		98.4	%	98	2														No		125	*
61		29	7		-	2	In		96.9		99	1														No		256	*
60		29	8		-	1	In		95.6		98	2														No		428	*
59		28	8		-	2	In		92.4		98	2														No		779	*
58		28	9		-	1	In		90.5		97	3														No		1,332	*
57		27	9		-	2	In		82.2		93	7	0													No		2,159	*
56		27	10		-	1	In		72.6		89	10	1													No		3,239	*
55		26	10		-	2	In		58.7		82	17	1													No		5,156	*
54		26	11		-	1	In		45.4		74	24	2	0	0											No		7,372	*
53		25	11		-	2	In		29.9		63	32	5	0	0											No		10,915	*
52		25	12		-	1	In		16.0		48	40	10	1	0											No		14,577	*
51		24	12		-	2	In		7.3		34	43	18	3	0	0										No		20,045	*
50		24	13		-	1	In		2.2		21	41	28	9	1	0	0									No		25,488	*
49		23	13		-	2	In		0.5		11	33	35	17	4	1	0									No		32,966	*
48		23	14		-	1	In		0.1		4	20	34	28	11	2	0	0								No		39,508	*
47		22	14		-	2	In		0.0		1	9	26	33	22	8	1	0								No		48,410	*
46		22	15		-	1	99.9	%	No		0	3	13	28	30	19	6	1	0	0						No		54,596	*
45		21	15		-	2	99.2		No		0	1	4	16	29	29	16	5	1	0	0					No		63,009	*
44		21	16		-	1	97.0		No			0	1	7	20	32	26	11	3	0	0					No		34,881
		20	15		-	3	93.1		No			0	0	3	13	27	31	19	6	1	0					No		32,688	*
43		20	16		-	2	81.7		No			0	0	1	6	18	29	27	14	4	1	0	0			No		73,703	*
42		20	17		-	1	63.1		No				0	0	1	9	22	31	24	10	2	0	0			No		38,824
		19	16		-	3	46.4		No					0	0	4	14	28	30	17	5	1	0	0		No		36,259	*
41		19	17		-	2	25.5		No						0	1	6	18	31	28	13	3	0	0		No		42,406
		20	18		-	0	28.7		No					0	0	2	8	19	29	25	13	3	0	0		No		34,851	*
40		19	18		-	1	11.4		No						0	0	2	9	23	32	23	8	2	0		No		38,368
		18	17		-	3	5.5		No						0	0	1	5	16	30	30	15	4	0	0	0.0	%	36,450	*
39		18	18		-	2	1.7		No								0	2	8	22	32	24	9	2	0	0.1		39,676
		19	19		-	0	2.4		No							0	0	2	9	23	31	23	9	2	0	0.2		32,873	*
38		18	19		-	1	0.4		No								0	0	3	13	28	32	18	4	0	1.1		34,102
		17	18		-	3	0.1		No								0	0	1	8	23	34	25	8	1	3.1		32,288	*
37		17	19		-	2	0.0		No								0	0	1	4	15	31	32	16	3	11.2		61,200	*
36		17	20		-	1	Out		No										0	1	6	21	36	28	8	32.6		52,814	*
35		16	20		-	2	Out		No										0	0	2	12	32	38	16	59.4		46,642	*
34		16	21		-	1	Out		No											0	0	5	23	43	28	81.9		37,579	*
33		15	21		-	2	Out		No											0	0	2	14	42	42	93.0		31,280	*
32		15	22		-	1	Out		No												0	1	7	35	57	98.1		24,266	*
31		14	22		-	2	Out		No													0	4	28	68	99.6		19,247	*
30		14	23		-	1	Out		No													0	1	20	78	99.9		13,689	*
29		13	23		-	2	Out		No														1	14	85	100.0		10,388	*
28		13	24		-	1	Out		No														0	9	91	Yes		7,023	*
27		12	24		-	2	Out		No														0	5	95	Yes		5,040	*
26		12	25		-	1	Out		No														0	4	96	Yes		3,226	*
25		11	25		-	2	Out		No															2	98	Yes		2,136	*
24		11	26		-	1	Out		No															1	99	Yes		1,241	*
23		10	26		-	2	Out		No															1	99	Yes		833	*
22		10	27		-	1	Out		No																100	Yes		469	*
21		9	27		-	2	Out		No															0	100	Yes		308	*
1	-20						Out		No																100	Yes		381	*

Total:							45.4	%	1.8	%	4	5	5	6	6	6	6	7	7	7	7	8	8	8	9	17.4	%	1,155,700

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Wednesday	100.0*	Lottery seed
H Rebels 11 Flatpacks 1	*-0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Thursday	100.0*	Lottery seed
R Rebels vs Sand Lions	+1.4+0.3+0.3-1.2-1.2-1.3
Dynamo vs Lumberjacks	-0.0+0.1+0.0-0.0+0.0-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

63	-77						100
62		30	7		-	1	98	2
61		29	7		-	2	97	3
60		29	8		-	1	96	4
59		28	8		-	2	92	7	0
58		28	9		-	1	90	9	0
57		27	9		-	2	82	16	1	0
56		27	10		-	1	73	24	3	0
55		26	10		-	2	59	34	7	1	0
54		26	11		-	1	45	39	13	3	0
53		25	11		-	2	30	40	22	6	1	0	0
52		25	12		-	1	16	34	31	14	4	1	0
51		24	12		-	2	7	24	32	23	10	3	1	0	0
50		24	13		-	1	2	11	25	28	20	10	3	1	0	0
49		23	13		-	2	0	4	13	24	26	20	9	3	1	0	0
48		23	14		-	1	0	1	4	11	21	25	21	12	5	1	0	0	0
47		22	14		-	2	0	0	1	3	9	17	23	22	15	7	2	1	0	0
46		22	15		-	1		0	0	0	1	5	12	20	23	19	12	5	1	0	0	0
45		21	15		-	2			0	0	0	1	3	7	15	22	22	17	9	3	1	0	0
44		21	16		-	1					0	0	0	1	5	12	20	24	20	12	5	2	0	0	0
		20	15		-	3						0	0	0	2	5	12	20	24	20	12	4	1	0	0	0
43		20	16		-	2							0	0	0	1	4	10	17	22	21	15	7	3	1	0	0	0
42		20	17		-	1									0	0	0	2	6	13	21	23	18	10	4	1	0	0
		19	16		-	3									0	0	0	1	2	6	14	21	24	18	9	4	1	0	0
41		19	17		-	2											0	0	0	1	4	10	18	23	21	13	6	2	0	0	0	0
		20	18		-	0												0	0	2	6	12	18	21	19	13	6	2	1	0	0
40		19	18		-	1												0	0	0	1	2	8	15	22	23	17	9	3	1	0	0
		18	17		-	3														0	0	1	3	8	16	23	23	15	8	2	0	0	0
39		18	18		-	2															0	0	1	3	7	14	21	23	17	9	4	1	0	0
38		18	19		-	1																0	0	0	1	4	10	18	24	22	14	6	2	0	0
37		17	19		-	2																	0	0	0	1	2	7	15	23	24	17	8	2	0	0
36		17	20		-	1																			0	0	0	1	5	12	22	26	20	10	3	0
35		16	20		-	2																				0	0	0	1	4	12	23	28	21	9	1
34		16	21		-	1																						0	0	1	4	13	26	31	20	5
33		15	21		-	2																							0	0	1	6	17	32	32	13
32		15	22		-	1																								0	0	2	8	25	39	26
31		14	22		-	2																									0	0	4	17	40	39
30		14	23		-	1																										0	1	9	35	55
29		13	23		-	2																										0	0	5	28	67
28		13	24		-	1																											0	2	21	77
27		12	24		-	2																											0	1	13	86
26		12	25		-	1																												0	9	90
25		11	25		-	2																												0	6	94
24		11	26		-	1																												0	2	98
23		10	26		-	2																													2	98
22		10	27		-	1																													0	100
21		9	27		-	2																													0	100
20		9	28		-	1																														100
19		8	28		-	2																													1	99
1	-18																																			100

Total:							2	2	2	2	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	5