PEI Islanders Playoff Chances 50/50

Beat Ice Holes 5-2, playoff odds up 5.8 to 71.1%

6 points 3 0-0

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Wednesday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Tier III	100.0*	Average seed
Islanders 5 Ice Holes 2	+5.9		+1.7		-2.2		+0.6

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Thursday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Tier III	100.0*	Average seed
Sharks vs Bruins	-0.3-0.9-0.5+0.1*+0.1+0.4						-0.0-0.1-0.1+0.1+0.0+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Islanders finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Pres		Chance will finish regular season at seed															Tier
TP		W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Trophy		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	III		Count

63	-80						In		99.6	%	100															No		1,459	*
62		27	8		-	2	In		99.1		100	0														No		1,157	*
61		27	9		-	1	In		97.7		99	1														No		1,813	*
60		26	9		-	2	In		96.3		99	1														No		3,137	*
59		26	10		-	1	In		93.4		98	2														No		4,605	*
58		25	10		-	2	In		88.7		96	4	0													No		7,004	*
57		25	11		-	1	In		82.3		94	6	0													No		9,891	*
56		24	11		-	2	In		73.3		90	10	0	0												No		14,188	*
55		24	12		-	1	In		60.9		83	16	1	0												No		18,708	*
54		23	12		-	2	In		46.8		75	22	2	0												No		25,219	*
53		23	13		-	1	In		31.3		64	31	5	0												No		31,462	*
52		22	13		-	2	In		17.9		51	38	10	1	0	0										No		39,980	*
51		22	14		-	1	In		8.3		36	43	17	3	0	0										No		46,486	*
50		21	14		-	2	In		2.7		23	42	27	8	1	0										No		56,044	*
49		21	15		-	1	In		0.8		14	37	33	13	2	0	0									No		33,395
		20	14		-	3	In		0.4		9	31	36	19	5	1	0									No		28,644	*
48		20	15		-	2	In		0.1		5	22	36	26	10	2	0	0								No		38,121
		21	16		-	0	In		0.1		5	23	35	25	10	2	0	0								No		31,573	*
47		20	16		-	1	In		0.0		2	12	29	33	18	5	1	0								No		44,434	*
		19	15		-	3	100.0	%	No		1	8	24	34	23	8	1	0	0							No		28,077
46		19	16		-	2	99.9		No		0	3	14	30	31	16	5	1	0							No		42,702
		20	17		-	0	99.9		No		0	4	16	29	29	16	5	1	0							No		34,917	*
45		19	17		-	1	99.6		No		0	1	6	20	31	26	12	3	0	0						No		46,959	*
		18	16		-	3	99.1		No		0	0	3	14	29	30	17	5	1	0	0					No		29,848
44		18	17		-	2	96.2		No		0	0	1	7	19	30	26	12	3	0	0	0				No		77,370	*
43		18	18		-	1	89.4		No			0	0	2	9	24	31	23	9	2	0	0				No		38,055
		17	17		-	3	78.7		No			0	0	1	4	16	29	29	16	5	1	0				No		34,404	*
42		17	18		-	2	59.8		No					0	1	7	20	31	26	11	3	0	0	0		No		37,922
		18	19		-	0	60.6		No				0	0	2	9	21	29	24	12	3	0	0			No		30,720	*
41		17	19		-	1	37.4		No					0	0	2	10	25	31	22	8	1	0	0		No		32,426
		16	18		-	3	22.2		No						0	1	5	16	30	29	15	4	0	0		No		28,503	*
40		16	19		-	2	10.9		No					0	0	0	2	9	22	31	24	10	2	0	0	0.0	%	54,335	*
39		16	20		-	1	2.4		No							0	0	2	10	24	32	22	8	1	0	0.1		45,896	*
38		15	20		-	2	0.3		No								0	0	3	12	27	32	20	5	1	1.6		38,876	*
37		15	21		-	1	0.1		No									0	1	4	16	32	31	14	2	9.7		30,582	*
36		14	21		-	2	0.0		No									0	0	1	7	23	36	26	7	29.4		24,891	*
35		14	22		-	1	Out		No										0	0	2	12	33	38	15	57.0		18,180	*
34		13	22		-	2	Out		No											0	1	6	24	43	27	78.9		14,027	*
33		13	23		-	1	Out		No												0	2	15	42	41	92.6		9,923	*
32		12	23		-	2	Out		No													1	7	37	55	98.0		7,094	*
31		12	24		-	1	Out		No													0	4	29	66	99.4		4,599	*
30		11	24		-	2	Out		No													0	2	21	77	100.0		3,133	*
29		11	25		-	1	Out		No														1	14	86	Yes		1,984	*
28		10	25		-	2	Out		No														0	9	91	Yes		1,243	*
27		10	26		-	1	Out		No															7	93	Yes		693	*
26		9	26		-	2	Out		No															3	97	Yes		445	*
25		9	27		-	1	Out		No															5	95	Yes		221	*
24		8	27		-	2	Out		No															2	98	Yes		128	*
23		8	28		-	1	Out		No															1	99	Yes		74	*
6	-22						Out		No																100	Yes		153	*

Total:							71.1	%	7.1	%	14	11	10	9	8	7	7	6	6	5	5	4	4	3	2	5.3	%	1,155,700

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Wednesday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Islanders 5 Ice Holes 2	-1.3

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Thursday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Dynamo vs Lumberjacks	+0.0-0.0+0.1-0.0+0.0-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

66	-80						100
65		29	7		-	1	98	2
64		28	7		-	2	100	0
63		28	8		-	1	100	0
62		27	8		-	2	99	1
61		27	9		-	1	98	2
60		26	9		-	2	96	4	0
59		26	10		-	1	93	6	0
58		25	10		-	2	89	11	0
57		25	11		-	1	82	16	1	0
56		24	11		-	2	73	24	3	0
55		24	12		-	1	61	32	7	1	0
54		23	12		-	2	47	39	12	2	0	0
53		23	13		-	1	31	41	21	6	1	0	0
52		22	13		-	2	18	35	29	13	4	1	0	0
51		22	14		-	1	8	25	32	22	9	2	0	0	0
50		21	14		-	2	3	13	26	28	19	8	2	0	0	0
49		21	15		-	1	1	6	17	26	26	16	6	2	0	0	0
		20	14		-	3	0	3	10	21	27	21	11	4	1	0	0
48		20	15		-	2	0	1	4	12	22	26	20	10	4	1	0	0	0
		21	16		-	0	0	1	5	14	22	24	18	10	4	1	0	0
47		20	16		-	1	0	0	1	5	13	22	25	19	11	4	1	0	0
		19	15		-	3		0	0	2	7	15	23	24	17	8	3	1	0	0	0
46		19	16		-	2		0	0	0	2	7	14	21	23	18	10	4	1	0	0	0	0
45		19	17		-	1				0	0	1	5	12	20	23	20	11	5	1	0	0	0
		18	16		-	3				0	0	0	1	5	13	21	24	19	11	5	1	0	0	0
44		18	17		-	2					0	0	0	1	4	11	18	22	20	13	6	2	1	0	0
43		18	18		-	1							0	0	0	2	7	15	22	23	17	9	3	1	0	0	0
		17	17		-	3								0	0	1	2	7	15	22	23	17	9	3	1	0	0
42		17	18		-	2									0	0	0	2	5	12	19	22	19	12	5	2	0	0	0	0
41		17	19		-	1											0	0	0	2	6	12	20	23	19	11	5	2	0	0
40		16	19		-	2													0	0	1	2	7	14	21	22	17	10	4	1	0	0	0
39		16	20		-	1													0	0	0	0	1	3	8	16	22	22	16	8	3	1	0	0
38		15	20		-	2																0	0	0	1	5	11	19	23	21	13	5	1	0	0
37		15	21		-	1																	0	0	0	1	3	8	16	23	24	17	7	2	0	0
36		14	21		-	2																			0	0	0	2	6	14	23	26	19	8	2	0
35		14	22		-	1																				0	0	0	1	5	13	23	28	20	8	1
34		13	22		-	2																						0	0	1	5	14	26	30	18	5
33		13	23		-	1																								0	1	6	18	32	30	13
32		12	23		-	2																									0	2	8	27	39	24
31		12	24		-	1																										1	4	17	39	39
30		11	24		-	2																										0	2	10	35	53
29		11	25		-	1																											1	4	29	67
28		10	25		-	2																												2	19	79
27		10	26		-	1																												1	18	81
26		9	26		-	2																												0	10	90
25		9	27		-	1																												1	7	92
24		8	27		-	2																													5	95
23		8	28		-	1																													1	99
6	-22																																			100

Total:							7	6	6	5	5	5	4	4	4	4	4	4	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	1	1	1