Holcomb Rebels Playoff Chances 50/50

Beat Flatpacks 11-1, playoff odds up 5.8 to 64.9%

4 points 2 0-0

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Wednesday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Tier III	100.0*	Average seed
H Rebels 11 Flatpacks 1	+6.1		+1.4		-2.7		+0.6
Segelviken 2 Golden Knights 3 (so)							*-0.1
Dirty Skates 0 Wolverines 5							+0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Thursday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Tier III	100.0*	Average seed
Sharks vs Bruins	+0.5+0.4-0.5-0.7-0.5-0.4						+0.1+0.0-0.0-0.1-0.1-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the H Rebels finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Pres		Chance will finish regular season at seed															Tier
TP		W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Trophy		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	III		Count

64	-80						In		Yes		100															No		577	*
63		29	8		-	1	In		99.1	%	100	0														No		424	*
62		28	8		-	2	In		98.6		99	1														No		774	*
61		28	9		-	1	In		97.7		99	1														No		1,329	*
60		27	9		-	2	In		96.2		98	2														No		2,262	*
59		27	10		-	1	In		92.6		97	3														No		3,197	*
58		26	10		-	2	In		88.8		95	5	0													No		5,185	*
57		26	11		-	1	In		83.6		93	7	0													No		7,427	*
56		25	11		-	2	In		73.9		88	12	0	0												No		10,903	*
55		25	12		-	1	In		61.2		81	18	1	0												No		14,516	*
54		24	12		-	2	In		47.2		72	25	3	0												No		20,046	*
53		24	13		-	1	In		31.4		60	34	6	0	0											No		25,453	*
52		23	13		-	2	In		18.5		47	40	12	1	0											No		33,192	*
51		23	14		-	1	In		8.3		33	44	19	4	0	0										No		39,589	*
50		22	14		-	2	In		2.9		20	41	29	9	1	0	0									No		48,264	*
49		22	15		-	1	In		0.6		10	31	35	18	4	1	0	0								No		54,737	*
48		21	15		-	2	In		0.0		3	19	35	29	11	2	0									No		36,414	*
		22	16		-	0	100.0	%	0.1		4	20	35	27	11	2	0	0	0							No		26,822	*
47		21	16		-	1	100.0		0.0		1	12	29	33	19	5	1	0	0							No		34,935
		20	15		-	3	100.0		No		1	6	21	34	26	10	2	0	0							No		32,523	*
46		20	16		-	2	99.9		No		0	3	13	28	31	18	6	1	0	0						No		73,655	*
45		20	17		-	1	99.6		No		0	1	6	20	31	27	12	3	0	0						No		38,632
		19	16		-	3	98.8		No		0	0	2	12	27	31	19	7	1	0						No		36,239	*
44		19	17		-	2	95.9		No			0	1	5	18	30	28	14	4	0	0	0				No		42,531
		20	18		-	0	94.7		No		0	0	1	6	18	29	27	15	5	1	0	0				No		34,899	*
43		19	18		-	1	88.4		No			0	0	2	9	23	31	23	9	2	0	0				No		38,162
		18	17		-	3	76.3		No				0	0	4	14	28	30	18	5	1	0				No		35,994	*
42		18	18		-	2	57.6		No				0	0	1	7	19	30	26	13	3	0	0			No		73,128	*
41		18	19		-	1	36.4		No						0	2	10	24	32	22	8	2	0	0		No		34,024
		17	18		-	3	21.4		No						0	1	5	16	29	29	16	4	1	0		No		32,172	*
40		17	19		-	2	9.5		No						0	0	1	8	22	32	25	10	2	0	0	No		33,620
		18	20		-	0	10.9		No						0	0	2	9	21	30	24	11	2	0	0	0.0	%	27,777	*
39		17	20		-	1	2.2		No							0	0	2	10	24	32	23	8	1	0	0.1		52,892	*
38		16	20		-	2	0.4		No							0	0	0	3	12	27	32	19	6	1	1.5		46,509	*
37		16	21		-	1	0.1		No									0	1	4	16	32	31	14	2	9.2		37,477	*
36		15	21		-	2	0.0		No									0	0	1	7	23	36	26	7	28.8		31,398	*
35		15	22		-	1	Out		No										0	0	2	13	33	37	15	56.3		24,251	*
34		14	22		-	2	Out		No											0	1	6	24	43	26	78.8		18,880	*
33		14	23		-	1	Out		No												0	2	15	42	40	92.0		13,929	*
32		13	23		-	2	Out		No												0	1	9	38	53	97.7		10,398	*
31		13	24		-	1	Out		No													0	4	30	65	99.4		7,161	*
30		12	24		-	2	Out		No													0	2	22	76	99.9		4,930	*
29		12	25		-	1	Out		No														1	15	85	100.0		3,143	*
28		11	25		-	2	Out		No														0	10	89	100.0		2,094	*
27		11	26		-	1	Out		No														0	6	93	Yes		1,296	*
26		10	26		-	2	Out		No														0	3	97	Yes		833	*
25		10	27		-	1	Out		No															1	99	Yes		442	*
24		9	27		-	2	Out		No															1	99	Yes		268	*
23		9	28		-	1	Out		No															1	99	Yes		142	*
4	-22						Out		No																100	Yes		255	*

Total:							64.9	%	5.6	%	10	9	9	8	8	7	7	7	6	6	6	5	5	4	3	7.4	%	1,155,700

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Wednesday	100.0*	Lottery seed
H Rebels 11 Flatpacks 1	-1.3

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Thursday	100.0*	Lottery seed
R Rebels vs Sand Lions	-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.1+0.0-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

64	-80						100
63		29	8		-	1	99	1
62		28	8		-	2	99	1
61		28	9		-	1	98	2
60		27	9		-	2	96	4
59		27	10		-	1	93	7	0
58		26	10		-	2	89	11	0	0
57		26	11		-	1	84	15	1	0
56		25	11		-	2	74	23	3	0
55		25	12		-	1	61	32	6	1
54		24	12		-	2	47	38	12	2	0	0
53		24	13		-	1	31	41	21	6	1	0	0
52		23	13		-	2	19	36	29	13	3	1	0	0
51		23	14		-	1	8	25	32	22	9	2	0	0	0
50		22	14		-	2	3	13	26	28	19	8	2	0	0	0
49		22	15		-	1	1	6	17	27	25	15	6	2	0	0
		21	14		-	3	0	3	11	22	26	21	11	4	1	0	0
48		21	15		-	2	0	1	4	13	22	26	19	10	4	1	0
		22	16		-	0	0	1	5	13	22	25	19	10	4	1	0	0	0
47		21	16		-	1	0	0	1	5	13	23	24	19	10	4	1	0	0	0
		20	15		-	3		0	0	2	7	15	24	24	17	8	3	1	0	0	0
46		20	16		-	2		0	0	1	2	7	15	21	23	17	9	4	1	0	0	0
45		20	17		-	1				0	0	1	5	12	21	24	19	11	4	1	0	0	0
		19	16		-	3				0	0	0	1	6	13	21	23	19	10	4	1	0	0
44		19	17		-	2					0	0	0	1	5	11	18	22	20	13	6	2	1	0	0
43		19	18		-	1							0	0	1	3	8	16	23	22	16	8	3	1	0	0	0
		18	17		-	3								0	0	1	3	7	15	22	23	17	9	3	1	0	0
42		18	18		-	2									0	0	0	2	6	12	19	22	19	12	5	2	0	0	0
41		18	19		-	1											0	0	1	3	9	17	23	22	15	7	2	0	0	0
		17	18		-	3											0	0	0	1	3	9	17	22	22	15	7	2	1	0	0
40		17	19		-	2												0	0	0	0	2	7	15	22	23	18	9	3	1	0	0
		18	20		-	0													0	0	1	3	8	14	20	21	17	10	5	1	0	0	0
39		17	20		-	1															0	0	1	3	9	16	23	22	15	7	3	1	0	0
38		16	20		-	2																0	0	0	2	5	12	20	23	20	12	5	1	0	0	0
37		16	21		-	1																		0	0	1	3	8	16	23	23	16	7	2	0	0
36		15	21		-	2																		0		0	0	2	6	14	23	25	19	8	2	0
35		15	22		-	1																					0	0	1	5	13	24	28	19	8	1
34		14	22		-	2																						0	0	1	5	14	27	29	18	5
33		14	23		-	1																							0	0	1	6	18	32	30	12
32		13	23		-	2																								0	0	2	10	27	38	23
31		13	24		-	1																									0	1	4	18	40	37
30		12	24		-	2																										0	2	10	36	52
29		12	25		-	1																										0	1	4	29	66
28		11	25		-	2																										0	0	3	22	75
27		11	26		-	1																											0	1	15	84
26		10	26		-	2																												1	9	90
25		10	27		-	1																												0	5	95
24		9	27		-	2																													1	99
23		9	28		-	1																													4	96
4	-22																																			100

Total:							6	5	5	5	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	2	2	2	2	2	2	1