IKEA Flatpacks Playoff Chances 50/50

Lost to H Rebels 1-11, playoff odds down 6.9 to 39.5%

0 points 0 2-0

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Wednesday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Tier III	100.0*	Average seed
H Rebels 11 Flatpacks 1	-6.7		-0.8		+4.3		-0.7
Segelviken 2 Golden Knights 3 (so)	*-0.2						*-0.0
Dirty Skates 0 Wolverines 5					*-0.1

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Thursday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Tier III	100.0*	Average seed
Sharks vs Bruins	+0.4+0.1+0.3-0.9*-0.3-0.4						+0.0+0.0+0.0-0.1-0.0-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Flatpacks finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Pres		Chance will finish regular season at seed															Tier
TP		W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Trophy		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	III		Count

62	-76						In		98.5	%	100															No		204	*
61		30	7		-	1	In		95.9		98	2														No		121	*
60		29	7		-	2	In		97.6		99	1														No		253	*
59		29	8		-	1	In		92.6		97	3														No		406	*
58		28	8		-	2	In		91.6		96	4														No		772	*
57		28	9		-	1	In		83.1		93	7	0													No		1,233	*
56		27	9		-	2	In		72.4		88	12	1													No		2,155	*
55		27	10		-	1	In		63.4		82	17	1													No		3,365	*
54		26	10		-	2	In		48.2		72	25	3	0												No		5,182	*
53		26	11		-	1	In		33.6		61	33	6	0												No		7,353	*
52		25	11		-	2	In		19.1		47	40	11	1	0											No		10,955	*
51		25	12		-	1	In		8.8		33	44	19	3	0	0										No		14,457	*
50		24	12		-	2	In		3.0		20	41	29	9	2	0										No		20,051	*
49		24	13		-	1	In		0.7		10	32	35	18	4	1	0									No		25,492	*
48		23	13		-	2	In		0.1		4	20	35	28	11	2	0	0								No		33,005	*
47		23	14		-	1	100.0	%	0.0		1	9	26	33	22	8	1	0	0							No		39,501	*
46		22	14		-	2	99.9		No		0	3	13	28	31	18	6	1	0	0						No		48,404	*
45		22	15		-	1	99.7		No		0	1	6	19	32	27	12	3	0	0						No		28,723
		21	14		-	3	98.7		No		0	0	3	12	27	31	20	7	1	0	0					No		26,131	*
44		21	15		-	2	95.3		No		0	0	1	5	18	30	27	14	4	1	0	0				No		63,065	*
43		21	16		-	1	88.0		No			0	0	2	8	23	31	24	10	2	0	0				No		34,905
		20	15		-	3	76.1		No				0	0	4	14	28	30	17	6	1	0				No		32,669	*
42		20	16		-	2	57.4		No				0	0	1	7	19	30	26	13	3	0	0			No		74,027	*
41		20	17		-	1	33.5		No					0	0	2	9	22	30	24	10	2	0	0		No		44,580	*
		19	16		-	3	21.6		No						0	1	5	16	30	29	15	4	0	0		No		30,175	*
40		19	17		-	2	9.9		No					0	0	0	2	8	21	31	25	11	2	0	0	No		77,382	*
39		19	18		-	1	3.2		No							0	0	3	12	27	31	19	6	1	0	0.0	%	38,012
		18	17		-	3	1.1		No								0	1	6	20	32	27	11	2	0	0.2		36,442	*
38		18	18		-	2	0.3		No								0	0	3	12	28	33	19	5	0	1.2		40,012
		19	19		-	0	0.5		No								0	0	3	12	26	31	20	6	1	1.8		32,941	*
37		18	19		-	1	0.1		No								0	0	1	6	19	33	28	11	2	5.4		34,065
		17	18		-	3	0.0		No									0	0	3	12	30	34	18	3	12.7		32,064	*
36		17	19		-	2	0.0		No									0	0	1	7	23	36	26	6	27.8		61,567	*
35		17	20		-	1	Out		No										0	0	3	15	34	35	12	48.5		27,101
		16	19		-	3	Out		No											0	2	10	30	40	18	62.6		25,568	*
34		16	20		-	2	Out		No											0	1	6	24	43	26	78.2		46,250	*
33		16	21		-	1	Out		No											0	0	2	15	43	39	91.7		37,823	*
32		15	21		-	2	Out		No												0	1	8	37	53	97.4		31,256	*
31		15	22		-	1	Out		No													0	4	30	66	99.4		24,285	*
30		14	22		-	2	Out		No													0	2	22	76	99.9		19,075	*
29		14	23		-	1	Out		No													0	1	15	84	100.0		13,997	*
28		13	23		-	2	Out		No														0	10	90	Yes		10,188	*
27		13	24		-	1	Out		No														0	6	94	Yes		6,984	*
26		12	24		-	2	Out		No														0	4	96	Yes		4,943	*
25		12	25		-	1	Out		No														0	2	98	Yes		3,205	*
24		11	25		-	2	Out		No															1	99	Yes		2,148	*
23		11	26		-	1	Out		No															1	99	Yes		1,355	*
22		10	26		-	2	Out		No															0	100	Yes		784	*
21		10	27		-	1	Out		No															0	100	Yes		457	*
0	-20						Out		No																100	Yes		612	*

Total:							39.5	%	1.3	%	3	4	4	5	5	6	6	7	7	7	8	8	9	10	11	21.0	%	1,155,700

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Wednesday	100.0*	Lottery seed
H Rebels 11 Flatpacks 1	+1.4

Thursday	None

What If

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

64	-76						100
63		31	6		-	1	95	5
62		30	6		-	2	97	3
61		30	7		-	1	96	4
60		29	7		-	2	98	2
59		29	8		-	1	93	7	0
58		28	8		-	2	92	8	1
57		28	9		-	1	83	16	1
56		27	9		-	2	72	25	2	0
55		27	10		-	1	63	30	6	1
54		26	10		-	2	48	38	11	2	0	0
53		26	11		-	1	34	39	21	5	1	0
52		25	11		-	2	19	36	29	12	3	1	0
51		25	12		-	1	9	26	32	22	8	2	0	0
50		24	12		-	2	3	14	27	28	18	8	2	0	0	0
49		24	13		-	1	1	5	15	25	26	17	8	3	1	0	0
48		23	13		-	2	0	1	5	14	23	25	18	9	4	1	0	0
47		23	14		-	1	0	0	1	4	11	20	24	21	12	6	2	0	0	0	0
46		22	14		-	2		0	0	1	2	7	15	22	22	17	9	3	1	0	0	0
45		22	15		-	1			0	0	0	1	4	10	17	22	21	14	7	3	1	0	0
44		21	15		-	2					0	0	0	1	5	12	18	23	20	13	6	2	0	0	0	0
43		21	16		-	1							0	0	0	2	6	12	19	23	19	12	5	2	0	0	0
42		20	16		-	2									0	0	1	2	6	13	20	22	18	11	5	2	0	0	0	0
41		20	17		-	1											0	0	1	4	9	17	23	22	14	7	2	0	0	0
		19	16		-	3											0	0	0	1	3	9	17	23	22	15	7	2	0	0	0
40		19	17		-	2												0	0	0	1	3	8	15	21	22	17	9	4	1	0	0
39		19	18		-	1														0	0	0	2	5	12	20	23	20	11	4	1	0	0
		18	17		-	3																0	0	2	5	13	21	24	19	11	4	1	0	0
38		18	18		-	2																0	0	0	2	5	12	20	23	20	12	5	1	0	0
37		18	19		-	1																	0	0	0	1	3	9	17	23	23	15	7	2	0	0
36		17	19		-	2																			0	0	0	2	6	15	23	25	18	8	2	0
35		17	20		-	1																				0	0	0	1	5	14	24	27	19	7	1
34		16	20		-	2																					0	0	0	1	5	15	27	29	18	4
33		16	21		-	1																							0	0	2	7	18	33	29	12
32		15	21		-	2																								0	0	2	10	26	38	23
31		15	22		-	1																								0	0	1	4	18	41	37
30		14	22		-	2																									0	0	2	10	37	52
29		14	23		-	1																										0	0	5	29	66
28		13	23		-	2																											0	2	21	76
27		13	24		-	1																											0	1	14	85
26		12	24		-	2																												0	10	90
25		12	25		-	1																												0	6	94
24		11	25		-	2																													3	97
23		11	26		-	1																												0	2	98
22		10	26		-	2																													1	99
21		10	27		-	1																													1	99
20		9	27		-	2																													0	100
19		9	28		-	1																														100
18		8	28		-	2																													1	99
0	-17																																			100

Total:							1	2	2	2	2	2	2	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	5	5	5	5	6