IKEA Flatpacks Playoff Chances

Lost to H Rebels 1-11, playoff odds down 14.1 to 28%

0 points 0 2-0

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Wednesday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Tier III	100.0*	Average seed
H Rebels 11 Flatpacks 1	-6.4		-0.6		+4.4		-0.6
Dirty Skates 0 Wolverines 5					-0.1
Ice Floors 5 Turtles 1					-0.1
Islanders 5 Ice Holes 2					-0.1
Segelviken 2 Golden Knights 3 (so)							*-0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Thursday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Tier III	100.0*	Average seed
Sharks vs Bruins	+0.4+0.1+0.4-0.4-0.2-0.4

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Flatpacks finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Pres		Chance will finish regular season at seed															Tier
TP		W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Trophy		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	III		Count

62	-76						In		99.4	%	100															No		359	*
61		30	7		-	1	In		94.0		98	2														No		100	*
60		29	7		-	2	In		94.1		97	3														No		219	*
59		29	8		-	1	In		90.9		95	5														No		394	*
58		28	8		-	2	In		85.9		93	6	0													No		759	*
57		28	9		-	1	In		77.7		89	10	0													No		1,290	*
56		27	9		-	2	In		68.1		83	16	1													No		2,294	*
55		27	10		-	1	In		55.3		75	23	2	0												No		3,799	*
54		26	10		-	2	In		40.8		65	30	4	0	0											No		6,200	*
53		26	11		-	1	In		25.9		52	38	10	1	0											No		9,618	*
52		25	11		-	2	In		13.4		38	43	17	2	0											No		14,619	*
51		25	12		-	1	In		5.9		25	43	25	6	1	0										No		20,979	*
50		24	12		-	2	In		1.8		14	37	33	13	3	0	0									No		30,400	*
49		24	13		-	1	In		0.3		6	26	36	23	7	1	0									No		41,316	*
48		23	13		-	2	In		0.0		2	14	32	31	16	4	1	0								No		56,086	*
47		23	14		-	1	100.0	%	No		1	6	20	33	27	11	2	0	0							No		70,988	*
46		22	14		-	2	99.8		No		0	2	10	24	32	22	8	2	0	0						No		91,355	*
45		22	15		-	1	98.8		No		0	0	3	12	27	31	19	6	1	0	0					No		109,370	*
44		21	15		-	2	94.0		No		0	0	1	4	15	28	30	17	5	1	0	0				No		132,414	*
43		21	16		-	1	80.2		No			0	0	1	5	17	30	28	15	4	1	0	0			No		150,911	*
42		20	16		-	2	55.5		No				0	0	1	6	18	30	27	13	3	0	0	0		No		172,147	*
41		20	17		-	1	36.4		No					0	0	2	10	24	32	22	8	1	0	0		No		89,154
		19	16		-	3	21.8		No					0	0	1	4	17	30	29	15	4	0	0		No		96,240	*
40		19	17		-	2	10.6		No						0	0	2	9	23	32	24	9	2	0	0	No		200,769	*
39		19	18		-	1	3.9		No						0	0	0	3	14	29	31	17	4	0	0	0.0	%	98,315
		18	17		-	3	1.5		No							0	0	1	8	23	33	25	9	1	0	0.1		106,246	*
38		18	18		-	2	0.5		No								0	0	4	15	30	31	16	4	0	0.7		114,642
		17	17		-	4	0.6		No							0	0	1	4	14	29	31	17	4	0	1.2		96,017	*
37		18	19		-	1	0.1		No								0	0	1	6	20	33	28	11	1	6.4		203,339	*
36		17	19		-	2	0.0		No									0	0	2	10	27	36	21	4	21.9		196,989	*
35		17	20		-	1	Out		No										0	0	4	17	36	33	10	46.9		179,652	*
34		16	20		-	2	Out		No										0	0	1	9	30	41	19	71.2		165,905	*
33		16	21		-	1	Out		No										0	0	0	4	21	44	31	87.9		142,529	*
32		15	21		-	2	Out		No											0	0	2	13	42	43	95.8		123,957	*
31		15	22		-	1	Out		No												0	1	7	36	56	98.8		101,679	*
30		14	22		-	2	Out		No												0	0	4	29	68	99.7		83,469	*
29		14	23		-	1	Out		No													0	2	21	77	99.9		64,598	*
28		13	23		-	2	Out		No													0	1	15	84	100.0		50,686	*
27		13	24		-	1	Out		No														0	10	90	100.0		36,220	*
26		12	24		-	2	Out		No														0	7	93	Yes		26,930	*
25		12	25		-	1	Out		No														0	4	96	Yes		18,578	*
24		11	25		-	2	Out		No														0	2	98	Yes		12,724	*
23		11	26		-	1	Out		No															2	98	Yes		8,180	*
22		10	26		-	2	Out		No															1	99	Yes		5,419	*
21		10	27		-	1	Out		No															1	99	Yes		3,190	*
20		9	27		-	2	Out		No															0	100	Yes		1,920	*
19		9	28		-	1	Out		No																100	Yes		1,093	*
18		8	28		-	2	Out		No															0	100	Yes		643	*
17		8	29		-	1	Out		No															0	100	Yes		326	*
0	-16						Out		No																100	Yes		574	*

Total:							28.0	%	0.5	%	1	2	3	3	4	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	13	15	29.2	%	3,145,600

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Wednesday	100.0*	Lottery seed
H Rebels 11 Flatpacks 1	+1.3
Segelviken 2 Golden Knights 3 (so)	*+0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Thursday	100.0*	Lottery seed
R Rebels vs Sand Lions	-0.0+0.1+0.0+0.0+0.1-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

65	-76						100
64		31	5		-	2	93	7
63		31	6		-	1	100
62		30	6		-	2	98	2
61		30	7		-	1	94	6
60		29	7		-	2	94	6
59		29	8		-	1	91	9
58		28	8		-	2	86	13	1
57		28	9		-	1	78	20	2	0
56		27	9		-	2	68	27	4	0
55		27	10		-	1	55	35	8	2	0
54		26	10		-	2	41	40	16	3	0	0
53		26	11		-	1	26	39	25	8	2	0	0
52		25	11		-	2	13	33	30	17	5	1	0	0
51		25	12		-	1	6	21	31	25	13	4	1	0		0
50		24	12		-	2	2	9	23	28	22	11	4	1	0	0
49		24	13		-	1	0	3	11	21	26	21	12	4	1	0	0
48		23	13		-	2	0	1	3	10	19	25	22	13	6	2	0	0
47		23	14		-	1		0	0	2	8	16	23	23	16	8	3	1	0	0	0
46		22	14		-	2		0	0	0	1	5	12	20	23	20	12	5	2	0	0	0
45		22	15		-	1			0	0	0	1	3	7	15	21	22	17	9	4	1	0	0	0
44		21	15		-	2					0	0	0	1	4	9	17	22	21	15	7	3	1	0	0	0
43		21	16		-	1							0	0	0	1	5	11	18	23	20	13	6	2	1	0	0	0	0
42		20	16		-	2									0	0	0	2	5	12	20	23	19	12	5	2	0	0	0
41		20	17		-	1									0	0	0	0	1	2	7	14	21	23	18	10	4	1	0	0	0
40		19	17		-	2												0	0	0	1	3	8	15	22	22	16	9	3	1	0	0
39		19	18		-	1														0	0	0	1	4	10	18	23	21	14	6	2	0	0	0
38		18	18		-	2																0	0	1	2	7	14	21	23	18	10	3	1	0	0
37		18	19		-	1																0	0	0	0	1	4	10	19	24	21	13	5	1	0	0
36		17	19		-	2																		0	0	0	1	3	9	17	25	24	15	6	1	0
35		17	20		-	1																			0	0	0	0	2	7	17	26	26	15	5	1
34		16	20		-	2																				0	0	0	0	2	8	19	28	26	14	3
33		16	21		-	1																						0	0	0	2	9	22	32	25	8
32		15	21		-	2																							0	0	1	4	13	30	35	17
31		15	22		-	1																							0	0	0	1	6	22	41	30
30		14	22		-	2																									0	0	3	14	39	44
29		14	23		-	1																									0	0	1	8	34	58
28		13	23		-	2																										0	0	4	26	70
27		13	24		-	1																										0	0	2	18	80
26		12	24		-	2																											0	1	13	87
25		12	25		-	1																											0	0	8	92
24		11	25		-	2																											0	0	5	95
23		11	26		-	1																												0	3	97
22		10	26		-	2																													2	98
21		10	27		-	1																													2	98
20		9	27		-	2																													1	99
19		9	28		-	1																														100
18		8	28		-	2																													0	100
17		8	29		-	1																													0	100
0	-16																																			100

Total:							0	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	3	3	3	3	3	4	4	4	4	5	5	5	6	6	7	8	9