Lappeenranta Dragoons Playoff Chances 50/50

Beat Arsenal 2-1, playoff odds up 9.6 to 63.8%

26 points 13 10-0

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Wednesday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Tier III	100.0*	Average seed
Dragoons 2 Arsenal 1	+8.5		+0.1		-0.3		+0.6
Ice Holes 3 Ride Warriors 4	+1.0				+0.0		+0.0
Hussars 1 Cubes 3	+0.9						+0.0
Vikings 8 Lumber 3	-0.6						-0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Thursday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Tier III	100.0*	Average seed
Bobcats vs Vikings	-0.3-0.9-1.0-0.6-0.5+0.5						-0.0-0.1-0.0-0.1-0.0+0.0
Camels vs Lumber	-0.4-0.6-0.6-0.4-0.1+0.5						-0.0-0.0-0.1-0.0-0.0+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Dragoons finish out the regular season. Explain

										100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:						Chance in		Pres		Chance will finish regular season at seed															Tier
TP	W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Trophy		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	III		Count

60	17	0		-	0	In		82.6	%	99	1														No		207
59	16	0		-	1	In		68.6		97	3														No		35
58	16	1		-	0	In		61.1		93	7														No		270	*
57	15	1		-	1	In		46.9		85	14	1													No		497	*
56	15	2		-	0	In		34.1		76	22	1													No		2,237	*
55	14	2		-	1	In		20.3		65	31	4	0												No		3,551	*
54	14	3		-	0	In		10.2		49	41	9	1	0											No		10,737	*
53	13	3		-	1	In		3.7		33	46	18	2	0	0										No		14,944	*
52	13	4		-	0	In		1.1		20	45	28	7	0	0										No		24,303
	12	3		-	2	In		0.7		17	42	31	9	1	0										No		10,815	*
51	12	4		-	1	In		0.1		9	33	38	17	3	0	0									No		43,152	*
50	12	5		-	0	In		0.0		3	21	39	28	8	1	0									No		55,804
	11	4		-	2	In		0.0		2	16	36	32	12	2	0									No		29,061	*
49	11	5		-	1	In		0.0		1	9	28	37	20	5	0	0								No		80,663
	10	4		-	3	In		No		0	5	20	36	28	9	1	0								No		12,420	*
48	11	6		-	0	100.0	%	No		0	3	16	35	32	13	2	0	0							No		97,975
	10	5		-	2	100.0		No		0	2	11	29	35	19	4	0	0							No		56,491	*
47	10	6		-	1	99.9		No		0	0	5	20	35	28	10	1	0	0						No		129,944
	9	5		-	3	99.7		No			0	2	12	30	34	17	4	0	0						No		21,669	*
46	10	7		-	0	99.5		No		0	0	1	9	27	36	21	5	1	0						No		135,605
	9	6		-	2	98.5		No			0	0	5	20	35	28	10	1	0						No		83,545	*
45	9	7		-	1	95.5		No			0	0	2	11	29	35	19	4	0	0					No		163,783
	8	6		-	3	90.1		No				0	1	5	21	36	28	9	1	0					No		29,147	*
44	9	8		-	0	87.5		No				0	0	4	18	35	30	11	1	0					No		149,851
	8	7		-	2	78.5		No				0	0	2	11	30	35	18	3	0					No		94,635	*
43	8	8		-	1	63.2		No				0	0	1	5	21	37	28	8	1	0				No		161,874
	7	7		-	3	47.2		No						0	2	12	33	36	15	2	0				No		29,201	*
42	8	9		-	0	41.9		No						0	1	10	30	37	18	3	0				No		137,236	*
	7	8		-	2	31.0		No						0	1	6	24	40	25	5	0	0			No		77,206
41	7	9		-	1	16.6		No						0	0	2	14	37	35	10	1	0			No		126,353
	6	8		-	3	8.8		No							0	1	8	30	41	18	2	0			No		22,385	*
40	7	10		-	0	7.4		No							0	1	7	28	42	20	2	0			No		92,500
	6	9		-	2	3.6		No							0	0	3	21	43	28	4	0			No		57,301	*
39	6	10		-	1	1.3		No								0	1	12	39	38	9	1	0		No		77,573
	5	9		-	3	0.5		No									0	7	31	45	15	1	0		No		13,216	*
38	6	11		-	0	0.3		No								0	0	6	30	45	18	2	0		No		52,443
	5	10		-	2	0.1		No								0	0	3	23	48	23	3	0		0.0	%	29,947	*
37	5	11		-	1	0.0		No									0	1	13	44	34	7	0		0.0		43,152	*
36	5	12		-	0	Out		No										0	7	36	42	14	1		0.2		22,610
	4	11		-	2	Out		No										0	5	32	45	17	1		0.5		11,913	*
35	4	12		-	1	Out		No										0	2	22	45	28	3		2.4		15,345	*
34	4	13		-	0	Out		No											1	12	40	40	8	0	8.6		11,201	*
33	3	13		-	1	Out		No											0	5	29	47	19	0	26.3		4,148	*
32	3	14		-	0	Out		No											0	2	18	50	30	0	44.6		2,624	*
31	2	14		-	1	Out		No												1	8	43	46	2	70.5		757	*
30	2	15		-	0	Out		No													7	35	55	3	85.5		441	*
29	1	15		-	1	Out		No													1	16	70	13	Yes		93	*
28	1	16		-	0	Out		No														13	78	9	97.8		46	*
27	0	16		-	1	Out		No															57	43	Yes		7
26	0	17		-	0	Out		No														1	76	23	Yes		187

Total:						63.8	%	0.2	%	1	3	5	8	10	11	13	13	13	11	8	3	1	0	0	0.2	%	2,241,100

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Wednesday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Dragoons 2 Arsenal 1	-1.2
Ice Holes 3 Ride Warriors 4	-0.0
Hussars 1 Cubes 3	-0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Thursday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Mutants vs Rebels	+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.0+0.1-0.0
Sunshine vs Bootleggers	-0.0+0.0-0.0+0.0+0.1+0.0
Camels vs Lumber	+0.0+0.0+0.1+0.0*+0.0-0.0
Wolverines vs Golden Knights	-0.0+0.1+0.1*+0.0+0.0-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

						100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:						Chance will finish season at seed
TP	W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

60	17	0		-	0	83	17
59	16	0		-	1	69	29	3
58	16	1		-	0	61	35	4	0
57	15	1		-	1	47	41	10	2	0
56	15	2		-	0	34	44	19	3	0
55	14	2		-	1	20	42	28	8	1	0	0
54	14	3		-	0	10	32	35	18	4	0	0
53	13	3		-	1	4	19	34	29	11	3	0	0
52	13	4		-	0	1	8	24	33	23	9	2	0	0
	12	3		-	2	1	7	22	32	25	11	3	0	0	0
51	12	4		-	1	0	2	10	24	30	22	9	2	0	0
50	12	5		-	0	0	0	3	12	25	29	20	8	2	0	0	0
	11	4		-	2	0	0	2	8	21	28	23	12	4	1	0	0
49	11	5		-	1	0	0	0	3	10	21	28	22	11	4	1	0	0
	10	4		-	3		0	0	1	5	14	24	27	19	8	2	0	0	0
48	11	6		-	0			0	0	2	9	20	27	23	12	4	1	0	0
	10	5		-	2			0	0	1	5	15	25	26	18	8	2	0	0	0
47	10	6		-	1			0	0	0	1	5	15	24	26	18	8	2	0	0	0
	9	5		-	3			0	0	0	0	2	7	17	26	24	15	6	1	0	0
46	10	7		-	0					0	0	1	4	12	22	26	20	11	4	1	0	0	0
	9	6		-	2					0	0	0	2	7	17	25	24	16	6	2	0	0
45	9	7		-	1						0	0	0	2	6	16	24	25	17	7	2	0	0	0
	8	6		-	3							0	0	0	2	8	18	26	24	14	6	1	0	0
44	9	8		-	0								0	0	1	5	13	23	26	20	9	3	0	0	0
	8	7		-	2									0	0	2	7	17	25	25	15	6	2	0	0
43	8	8		-	1									0	0	0	2	7	16	25	26	16	6	1	0	0
	7	7		-	3											0	0	3	9	19	27	23	13	4	1	0	0
42	8	9		-	0											0	0	1	6	15	25	27	17	7	2	0	0	0
	7	8		-	2											0	0	0	2	9	19	27	24	13	4	1	0		0
41	7	9		-	1											0	0	0	0	2	9	20	28	24	12	4	1	0	0
	6	8		-	3													0	0	1	4	13	24	28	20	8	2	0	0	0
40	7	10		-	0													0	0	0	2	9	20	28	24	12	4	1	0
	6	9		-	2														0	0	1	5	14	26	28	18	6	1	0	0	0
39	6	10		-	1															0	0	1	6	16	28	28	16	5	1	0	0
	5	9		-	3																0	0	2	10	23	30	23	10	2	0	0
38	6	11		-	0																0	0	1	6	18	29	27	14	4	1	0
	5	10		-	2																0	0	0	3	13	26	30	20	6	1	0	0
37	5	11		-	1																	0	0	1	5	16	29	29	16	4	1	0	0
36	5	12		-	0																			0	1	7	21	32	26	11	2	0	0
	4	11		-	2																			0	1	4	15	29	30	17	4	1	0
35	4	12		-	1																			0	0	1	7	20	32	27	12	2	0
34	4	13		-	0																				0	0	2	10	24	34	21	7	1	0
33	3	13		-	1																					0	0	2	12	26	33	20	6	0
32	3	14		-	0																							1	5	18	32	30	12	2
31	2	14		-	1																							0	1	6	22	34	28	9
30	2	15		-	0																								0	3	11	35	36	14	0
29	1	15		-	1																											16	51	29	4
28	1	16		-	0																										2	4	35	57	2
27	0	16		-	1																												14	71	14
26	0	17		-	0																											1	21	60	18

Total:						0	1	1	2	2	3	4	4	5	5	6	6	6	7	7	7	6	6	5	5	4	3	2	1	1	0	0	0	0	0