Lappeenranta Dragoons Playoff Chances

Beat Arsenal 2-1, playoff odds up 11.2 to 65%

26 points 13 10-0

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Wednesday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Dragoons 2 Arsenal 1	+8.7		+0.5
Ice Holes 3 Ride Warriors 4	+1.6		+0.1
Hussars 1 Cubes 3	+1.0		+0.0
Camels 3 Bobcats 1	-0.6		-0.0
Vikings 8 Lumber 3	-0.6		-0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Thursday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Camels vs Lumber	-0.7-1.2-1.0-0.1-0.2+0.9		-0.0-0.1-0.0-0.0-0.0+0.0
Bobcats vs Vikings	-0.3-0.7-0.7*-0.2-0.3+0.5		-0.0-0.0-0.1-0.0-0.0+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Dragoons finish out the regular season. Explain

										100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:						Chance in		Pres		Chance will finish regular season at seed															Tier
TP	W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Trophy		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	III		Count

60	17	0		-	0	In		40.9	%	90	10														No		692
59	16	0		-	1	In		30.6		83	17														No		307
58	16	1		-	0	In		17.6		73	25	2													No		2,425	*
57	15	1		-	1	In		8.3		61	34	4	0												No		3,793	*
56	15	2		-	0	In		3.5		44	44	11	1	0											No		16,354	*
55	14	2		-	1	In		1.1		28	48	21	3	0											No		22,942	*
54	14	3		-	0	In		0.2		15	43	34	8	1	0										No		69,735	*
53	13	3		-	1	In		0.0		6	30	41	20	3	0	0									No		86,761	*
52	13	4		-	0	In		0.0		2	18	40	31	9	1	0									No		144,347
	12	3		-	2	In		0.0		1	12	36	36	14	2	0									No		56,237	*
51	12	4		-	1	In		No		0	6	26	39	22	5	0	0								No		197,170
	11	3		-	3	In		No		0	3	18	37	31	9	1	0								No		22,796	*
50	12	5		-	0	100.0	%	No		0	2	14	35	34	13	2	0	0							No		290,896
	11	4		-	2	100.0		No		0	1	9	30	37	19	4	0	0							No		129,435	*
49	11	5		-	1	100.0		No		0	0	4	20	37	29	9	1	0							No		359,763
	10	4		-	3	99.9		No			0	2	12	32	35	16	3	0							No		47,112	*
48	11	6		-	0	99.7		No			0	1	9	29	37	20	4	0	0						No		451,727	*
	10	5		-	2	99.2		No		0	0	0	5	22	37	26	8	1	0						No		201,009
47	10	6		-	1	97.4		No			0	0	2	13	32	35	15	2	0	0					No		491,791
	9	5		-	3	93.9		No				0	1	6	25	38	24	6	0	0					No		69,389	*
46	10	7		-	0	92.4		No				0	0	5	22	38	27	7	1	0					No		515,388
	9	6		-	2	85.8		No				0	0	2	14	35	34	13	1	0					No		261,443	*
45	9	7		-	1	73.9		No					0	1	7	27	39	22	4	0					No		515,290
	8	6		-	3	60.6		No					0	0	3	18	39	31	8	0					No		74,703	*
44	9	8		-	0	57.1		No					0	0	3	16	38	33	9	0	0				No		472,284
	8	7		-	2	43.9		No					0	0	1	10	33	39	15	1	0				No		242,440	*
43	8	8		-	1	29.1		No						0	0	5	24	43	25	3	0				No		418,956
	7	7		-	3	18.6		No						0	0	2	16	42	34	6	0				No		60,729	*
42	8	9		-	0	16.2		No						0	0	2	14	41	36	7	0				No		341,854
	7	8		-	2	9.8		No							0	1	9	36	43	11	0				No		172,403	*
41	7	9		-	1	4.7		No							0	0	4	27	49	19	0	0			No		264,465
	6	8		-	3	2.3		No							0	0	2	20	50	27	1	0			No		37,098	*
40	7	10		-	0	1.9		No								0	2	18	50	28	1	0			No		194,409
	6	9		-	2	0.9		No								0	1	13	48	36	2	0			No		92,677	*
39	6	10		-	1	0.3		No								0	0	7	42	47	4	0			No		128,292
	5	9		-	3	0.1		No									0	4	36	53	7	0			No		16,816	*
38	6	11		-	0	0.1		No									0	4	33	54	9	0			No		86,053
	5	10		-	2	0.0		No									0	2	27	59	11	0			No		37,739	*
37	5	11		-	1	0.0		No									0	1	18	61	18	1	0		No		53,645	*
36	5	12		-	0	0.0		No									0	0	11	57	29	3	0		0.0	%	40,918	*
35	4	12		-	1	Out		No										0	5	48	40	8	0		0.0		15,023	*
34	4	13		-	0	Out		No										0	2	34	48	15	1		0.2		10,064	*
33	3	13		-	1	Out		No											1	24	48	25	2		2.0		2,866	*
32	3	14		-	0	Out		No											0	11	45	37	7		6.7		1,849	*
31	2	14		-	1	Out		No												3	32	51	13		21.2		377	*
30	2	15		-	0	Out		No												1	23	52	25		32.9		231	*
29	1	15		-	1	Out		No													3	49	49		57.1		35
28	1	16		-	0	Out		No													7	47	47		86.7		15	*
27	0	16		-	1	Out		No														50	50		Yes		2
26	0	17		-	0	Out		No													1	17	82		97.5		555

Total:						65.0	%	0.0	%	1	2	4	7	10	12	14	16	15	13	6	1	0	0		0.0	%	6,723,300

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Wednesday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Dragoons 2 Arsenal 1	-1.0
Ice Holes 3 Ride Warriors 4	-0.1
Hussars 1 Cubes 3	-0.0
Vikings 8 Lumber 3	+0.0
Pirates 5 White Claws 3	-0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Thursday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Camels vs Lumber	+0.0+0.1+0.0+0.0+0.0-0.0
Bobcats vs Vikings	+0.0+0.0+0.1+0.0*+0.0-0.0
Wolverines vs Golden Knights	-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1+0.0-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

						100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:						Chance will finish season at seed
TP	W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

60	17	0		-	0	41	45	13	1
59	16	0		-	1	31	43	21	5	0
58	16	1		-	0	18	43	32	7	1	0
57	15	1		-	1	8	35	41	15	2	0
56	15	2		-	0	3	22	40	27	7	1	0	0
55	14	2		-	1	1	11	31	36	17	4	0	0
54	14	3		-	0	0	4	18	35	29	11	2	0	0
53	13	3		-	1	0	1	7	23	34	24	9	2	0	0
52	13	4		-	0	0	0	2	12	28	32	19	6	1	0	0
	12	3		-	2	0	0	1	7	22	32	24	10	2	0	0
51	12	4		-	1		0	0	3	12	26	30	20	7	2	0	0
	11	3		-	3			0	1	6	18	30	27	14	4	1	0	0
50	12	5		-	0		0	0	0	4	14	27	29	18	7	1	0	0
	11	4		-	2			0	0	2	9	21	29	23	11	3	1	0	0
49	11	5		-	1			0	0	0	3	11	23	29	21	9	3	0	0	0
	10	4		-	3				0	0	1	5	15	27	27	17	6	1	0	0
48	11	6		-	0				0	0	0	3	11	23	28	21	10	3	0	0	0
	10	5		-	2				0	0	0	1	7	17	27	26	15	5	1	0	0	0
47	10	6		-	1					0	0	0	2	7	18	27	25	14	5	1	0	0	0
	9	5		-	3						0	0	0	3	11	22	28	22	10	3	0	0	0
46	10	7		-	0						0	0	0	2	7	18	27	25	14	5	1	0	0	0
	9	6		-	2							0	0	1	4	12	23	28	21	9	3	0	0	0
45	9	7		-	1							0	0	0	1	4	13	24	28	20	8	2	0	0	0
	8	6		-	3									0	0	1	7	17	27	26	15	5	1	0	0
44	9	8		-	0								0	0	0	1	4	13	25	28	20	8	2	0	0
	8	7		-	2									0	0	0	2	8	19	28	25	13	4	1	0	0
43	8	8		-	1										0	0	0	2	9	21	29	24	11	3	0	0	0
	7	7		-	3											0	0	1	4	14	27	29	18	6	1	0
42	8	9		-	0											0	0	0	2	10	23	30	23	9	2	0	0	0
	7	8		-	2											0	0	0	1	6	17	29	28	15	4	1	0	0
41	7	9		-	1											0	0	0	0	1	7	20	31	26	12	3	0	0
	6	8		-	3													0	0	1	4	14	27	31	18	5	1	0	0
40	7	10		-	0														0	0	2	9	24	32	23	8	1	0	0
	6	9		-	2														0	0	1	6	18	31	28	13	3	0	0
39	6	10		-	1															0	0	2	9	24	33	24	8	1	0	0
	5	9		-	3																0	1	5	17	31	29	14	3	0	0
38	6	11		-	0																0	0	3	13	29	32	18	5	1	0	0
	5	10		-	2																0	0	2	9	24	34	23	8	1	0	0
37	5	11		-	1																0	0	0	3	13	30	33	16	4	0	0
36	5	12		-	0																		0	1	5	19	34	28	11	2	0	0
35	4	12		-	1																			0	1	8	24	36	23	7	1	0
34	4	13		-	0																				0	2	13	31	33	17	3	0
33	3	13		-	1																					0	4	19	34	28	13	2	0
32	3	14		-	0																					0	1	8	25	37	22	6	0
31	2	14		-	1																						0	2	10	32	34	18	3
30	2	15		-	0																							0	5	19	42	25	6	1
29	1	15		-	1																								3	9	31	34	23
28	1	16		-	0																										13	40	40	7
27	0	16		-	1																											50		50
26	0	17		-	0																								0	0	2	15	49	33

Total:						0	0	1	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	7	8	8	8	8	7	7	6	4	3	2	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0