Washington Capitals Playoff Chances 3

Beat Citadels 6-1, playoff odds up 9.9 to 81.3%

8 points 4 1-0

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Saturday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Tier III	100.0*	Average seed
W. Capitals 6 Citadels 1	+5.5		+1.8		-1.4		+0.6
Juice 3 Steam 0	*+0.1
Dealers 7 B. Capitals 4	*+0.1		*-0.1

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Sunday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Tier III	100.0*	Average seed
Knights vs Tankers	-0.3-0.3-0.5+0.3+0.1+0.3
Canadiens vs ELe			-0.1-0.1-0.2+0.1+0.1+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the W. Capitals finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Pres		Chance will finish regular season at seed															Tier
TP		W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Trophy		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	III		Count

68	-78						In		99.8	%	100															No		623	*
67		29	5		-	1	In		99.7		100	0														No		393	*
66		28	5		-	2	In		99.8		100															No		804	*
65		28	6		-	1	In		99.7		100	0														No		1,466	*
64		27	6		-	2	In		99.7		100	0														No		2,885	*
63		27	7		-	1	In		99.1		100	0														No		5,000	*
62		26	7		-	2	In		98.3		99	1														No		8,502	*
61		26	8		-	1	In		96.8		98	2	0													No		13,639	*
60		25	8		-	2	In		94.5		97	3	0													No		21,564	*
59		25	9		-	1	In		90.5		95	5	0													No		31,645	*
58		24	9		-	2	In		84.7		91	8	0													No		46,138	*
57		24	10		-	1	In		76.1		86	13	1	0												No		62,874	*
56		23	10		-	2	In		64.4		79	19	1	0	0											No		85,122	*
55		23	11		-	1	In		49.8		69	27	3	0	0											No		107,523	*
54		22	11		-	2	In		35.0		58	35	7	0	0											No		136,108	*
53		21	11		-	3	In		20.7		44	41	13	2	0	0										No		164,103	*
52		21	12		-	2	In		10.0		31	44	21	4	0	0	0									No		193,307	*
51		20	12		-	3	In		3.6		19	40	30	10	1	0	0									No		217,184	*
50		20	13		-	2	In		0.9		9	32	36	18	4	1	0	0								No		239,651	*
49		19	13		-	3	In		0.1		3	18	35	30	12	2	0	0								No		111,924
		20	14		-	1	In		0.2		4	21	35	27	10	2	0	0								No		140,015	*
48		19	14		-	2	In		0.0		1	10	27	34	20	6	1	0								No		152,586	*
		18	13		-	4	100.0	%	0.0		1	9	26	33	22	7	1	0	0							No		110,766	*
47		18	14		-	3	99.9		No		0	3	13	29	32	18	5	1	0							No		115,864
		19	15		-	1	99.9		No		0	4	16	31	29	15	4	1	0							No		144,658	*
46		18	15		-	2	99.6		No		0	1	6	19	31	27	13	3	0	0	0					No		254,185	*
45		17	15		-	3	97.5		No		0	0	1	8	22	32	25	10	2	0	0	0				No		237,370	*
44		17	16		-	2	89.7		No			0	0	2	10	24	31	22	8	2	0	0	0			No		219,983	*
43		16	16		-	3	71.4		No				0	0	3	11	26	31	20	7	1	0	0			No		192,693	*
42		16	17		-	2	45.0		No					0	0	3	13	28	30	18	6	1	0	0		No		166,750	*
41		15	17		-	3	20.6		No					0	0	1	4	15	29	29	16	4	1	0		No		138,048	*
40		15	18		-	2	6.9		No						0	0	1	6	19	31	28	13	3	0	0	0.0	%	113,329	*
39		14	18		-	3	1.6		No							0	0	1	8	22	33	25	9	2	0	0.4		88,526	*
38		14	19		-	2	0.3		No								0	0	2	11	27	33	20	6	0	3.8		67,781	*
37		13	19		-	3	0.0		No									0	1	4	17	32	31	13	2	15.6		49,871	*
36		13	20		-	2	0.0		No									0	0	1	8	24	37	24	5	38.6		35,902	*
35		12	20		-	3	Out		No										0	0	3	15	35	35	12	64.6		25,017	*
34		12	21		-	2	Out		No											0	1	8	28	42	22	83.8		16,890	*
33		11	21		-	3	Out		No												0	3	19	44	33	94.0		10,947	*
32		11	22		-	2	Out		No												0	1	12	41	46	98.3		7,076	*
31		11	23		-	1	Out		No												0	0	6	36	57	99.4		4,144	*
30		10	23		-	2	Out		No													0	3	28	69	99.9		2,532	*
29		10	24		-	1	Out		No														2	18	80	99.9		1,327	*
28		9	24		-	2	Out		No														0	15	85	Yes		758	*
27		9	25		-	1	Out		No															7	93	Yes		403	*
26		8	25		-	2	Out		No															8	92	Yes		223	*
25		8	26		-	1	Out		No															6	94	Yes		98	*
24		7	26		-	2	Out		No																100	Yes		57	*
23		6	26		-	3	Out		No															6	94	Yes		17	*
8	-22						Out		No																100	Yes		329	*

Total:							81.3	%	10.4	%	16	14	12	10	9	8	7	6	5	4	3	3	2	1	1	2.2	%	3,748,600

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Saturday	100.0*	Lottery seed
W. Capitals 6 Citadels 1	-1.2
Juice 3 Steam 0	*-0.0
Icicles 3 Prairie Storm 2	*-0.0

Sunday	None

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

69	-78						100
68		29	4		-	2	99	1
67		29	5		-	1	100	0
66		28	5		-	2	100	0
65		28	6		-	1	100	0
64		27	6		-	2	100	0
63		27	7		-	1	99	1
62		26	7		-	2	98	2	0
61		26	8		-	1	97	3	0
60		25	8		-	2	95	5	0
59		25	9		-	1	91	9	0
58		24	9		-	2	85	14	1	0
57		24	10		-	1	76	22	2	0	0
56		23	10		-	2	64	30	5	0	0	0
55		23	11		-	1	50	37	11	2	0	0
54		22	11		-	2	35	40	19	5	1	0	0
53		21	11		-	3	21	37	28	11	3	0	0	0	0
52		21	12		-	2	10	28	32	20	8	2	0	0	0
51		20	12		-	3	4	15	28	28	17	7	2	0	0	0
50		20	13		-	2	1	6	18	27	25	15	6	2	0	0	0
		19	12		-	4	1	5	15	25	25	17	8	2	1	0	0
49		19	13		-	3	0	1	6	16	24	24	17	8	3	1	0	0	0
48		19	14		-	2	0	0	1	5	13	21	24	19	10	4	1	0	0	0	0
47		18	14		-	3		0	0	0	2	7	15	22	23	17	9	3	1	0	0	0
		19	15		-	1		0	0	1	5	13	21	24	19	10	4	1	0	0
46		18	15		-	2			0	0	0	2	6	13	20	23	18	11	5	1	0	0	0
45		17	15		-	3			0	0	0	0	1	3	8	15	21	22	16	9	4	1	0	0	0
44		17	16		-	2						0	0	0	1	4	9	17	22	21	15	8	3	1	0	0	0		0
43		16	16		-	3								0	0	0	1	4	10	18	23	21	14	7	2	1	0	0	0
42		16	17		-	2										0	0	0	2	5	11	19	22	20	13	6	2	0	0	0	0
41		15	17		-	3											0	0	0	0	2	6	13	20	23	19	11	5	1	0	0	0
40		15	18		-	2												0		0	0	1	3	7	15	21	22	17	9	3	1	0	0	0
39		14	18		-	3															0	0	0	1	4	10	18	23	21	14	6	2	0	0	0
38		14	19		-	2																0	0	0	1	2	7	15	22	24	18	9	3	1	0	0
37		13	19		-	3																		0	0	0	1	5	12	20	25	21	11	4	1	0
36		13	20		-	2																				0	0	1	4	10	20	26	23	12	4	0
35		12	20		-	3																					0	0	1	3	10	21	29	24	10	2
34		12	21		-	2																						0	0	1	3	12	25	32	21	6
33		11	21		-	3																								0	1	5	17	31	33	14
32		11	22		-	2																									0	2	9	25	39	25
31		11	23		-	1																									0	1	3	17	41	39
30		10	23		-	2																										0	1	10	36	53
29		10	24		-	1																										0	1	5	29	65
28		9	24		-	2																											0	1	22	77
27		9	25		-	1																												0	13	86
26		8	25		-	2																													11	89
25		8	26		-	1																													10	90
24		7	26		-	2																													4	96
23		6	26		-	3																													6	94
8	-22																																			100

Total:							10	8	7	7	6	5	5	5	4	4	4	4	3	3	3	3	2	2	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0