Prague Nightmares Playoff Chances 3

Beat Chevalier 6-2, playoff odds up 9.8 to 44.7%

2 points 1 2-0

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Saturday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Tier III	100.0*	Average seed
Chevalier 2 Nightmares 6	+6.1		+0.4		-4.8		+0.6
Icicles 3 Prairie Storm 2	*-0.1
Fighting Hawks 7 Attack 1					-0.2

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Sunday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Tier III	100.0*	Average seed
Knights vs Tankers	+0.6+0.4*+0.1-0.6-0.4-0.5				+0.1+0.1+0.2+0.0+0.1-0.1		+0.1+0.0+0.0-0.1-0.0-0.0
Canadiens vs ELe	+0.1-0.3-0.3-0.2-0.4+0.1				-0.2-0.1-0.0+0.3+0.2+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Nightmares finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Pres		Chance will finish regular season at seed															Tier
TP		W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Trophy		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	III		Count

64	-76						In		99.8	%	100															No		479	*
63		30	6		-	1	In		99.1		100	0														No		212	*
62		29	6		-	2	In		97.9		100	0														No		427	*
61		29	7		-	1	In		96.5		100	0														No		806	*
60		28	7		-	2	In		93.8		99	1														No		1,472	*
59		28	8		-	1	In		89.1		98	2	0													No		2,609	*
58		27	8		-	2	In		81.6		96	4	0													No		4,620	*
57		26	8		-	3	In		71.8		92	8	0													No		7,432	*
56		26	9		-	2	In		59.3		86	13	0	0												No		12,055	*
55		25	9		-	3	In		46.7		79	19	2	0												No		18,349	*
54		25	10		-	2	In		31.5		69	28	3	0	0											No		27,183	*
53		24	10		-	3	In		18.4		57	36	7	1	0											No		38,151	*
52		24	11		-	2	In		8.7		42	42	14	2	0	0										No		53,364	*
51		23	11		-	3	In		2.9		28	43	23	5	1	0										No		71,527	*
50		23	12		-	2	In		0.7		16	38	32	12	2	0	0									No		93,504	*
49		22	12		-	3	In		0.1		7	26	36	22	7	1	0	0								No		116,714	*
48		22	13		-	2	100.0	%	0.0		2	14	31	31	16	4	1	0	0							No		143,356	*
47		21	13		-	3	100.0		0.0		0	5	19	31	28	13	3	0	0	0						No		168,764	*
46		21	14		-	2	99.8		No		0	1	9	24	32	23	9	2	0	0						No		96,380
		20	13		-	4	99.5		No		0	1	6	19	30	26	13	3	1	0						No		98,959	*
45		20	14		-	3	97.5		No		0	0	1	8	22	32	24	10	2	0	0					No		100,184
		21	15		-	1	97.2		No		0	0	2	10	23	30	22	10	2	0	0					No		115,968	*
44		20	15		-	2	88.1		No			0	0	2	10	23	30	22	9	2	0	0	0			No		237,074	*
43		19	15		-	3	66.0		No			0	0	0	2	10	23	30	22	9	2	0	0			No		246,939	*
42		19	16		-	2	43.7		No				0	0	0	3	13	27	30	19	6	1	0	0		No		152,648	*
		18	15		-	4	25.9		No					0	0	1	6	19	30	27	13	3	0	0		0.0	%	102,762	*
41		18	16		-	3	13.5		No					0	0	0	3	11	24	31	22	8	2	0	0	0.0		252,864	*
40		18	17		-	2	4.1		No						0	0	0	4	13	28	31	18	5	1	0	0.0		119,280
		17	16		-	4	2.7		No							0	0	2	10	23	31	23	9	1	0	0.0		125,687	*
39		17	17		-	3	0.4		No							0	0	0	3	13	28	32	18	5	0	0.4		106,203
		18	18		-	1	0.7		No							0	0	1	4	15	28	30	17	5	0	0.6		123,153	*
38		17	18		-	2	0.1		No								0	0	1	6	20	33	28	11	1	2.6		102,160
		16	17		-	4	0.0		No									0	1	4	16	31	31	15	2	5.2		108,110	*
37		16	18		-	3	0.0		No									0	0	1	8	24	36	25	6	16.1		185,067	*
36		16	19		-	2	0.0		No									0	0	0	3	14	33	36	14	38.8		161,436	*
35		15	19		-	3	Out		No											0	1	6	25	43	25	64.7		133,510	*
34		15	20		-	2	Out		No										0	0	0	2	16	43	39	83.7		109,850	*
33		14	20		-	3	Out		No												0	1	9	38	53	94.0		86,293	*
32		14	21		-	2	Out		No												0	0	4	30	65	98.1		66,601	*
31		13	21		-	3	Out		No													0	2	22	76	99.6		49,059	*
30		13	22		-	2	Out		No													0	1	15	84	99.9		35,795	*
29		12	22		-	3	Out		No													0	0	10	90	100.0		25,106	*
28		12	23		-	2	Out		No														0	6	94	100.0		17,207	*
27		11	23		-	3	Out		No														0	4	96	Yes		11,173	*
26		11	24		-	2	Out		No														0	2	98	Yes		7,256	*
25		10	24		-	3	Out		No															1	99	Yes		4,544	*
24		10	25		-	2	Out		No															1	99	Yes		2,640	*
23		9	25		-	3	Out		No															0	100	Yes		1,572	*
22		9	26		-	2	Out		No															0	100	Yes		869	*
2	-21						Out		No																100	Yes		1,227	*

Total:							44.7	%	1.4	%	4	5	5	6	6	6	6	7	7	7	8	8	8	9	9	15.5	%	3,748,600

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Saturday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Chevalier 2 Nightmares 6	-1.3
Juice 3 Steam 0	*-0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Sunday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Knights vs Tankers	-0.0-0.0+0.0+0.1*+0.0+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

65	-76						100
64		30	5		-	2	99	1
63		30	6		-	1	99	1
62		29	6		-	2	98	2
61		29	7		-	1	97	3	0
60		28	7		-	2	94	6	0
59		28	8		-	1	89	11	0
58		27	8		-	2	82	17	1
57		26	8		-	3	72	25	3	0	0
56		26	9		-	2	59	33	7	1	0
55		25	9		-	3	47	38	13	2	0	0
54		25	10		-	2	31	41	21	6	1	0	0
53		24	10		-	3	18	36	29	12	3	1	0	0
52		24	11		-	2	9	26	32	21	9	2	0	0	0
51		23	11		-	3	3	14	27	28	18	7	2	0	0
50		23	12		-	2	1	5	16	26	26	17	7	2	0	0	0
49		22	12		-	3	0	1	6	15	24	25	18	9	3	1	0	0	0
48		22	13		-	2	0	0	1	5	12	21	24	20	11	5	1	0	0	0
47		21	13		-	3	0	0	0	1	3	9	17	23	22	15	7	3	1	0	0	0
46		21	14		-	2			0	0	0	2	5	12	20	23	19	12	5	2	0	0	0	0
45		20	14		-	3				0	0	0	1	2	7	14	21	22	17	10	4	1	0	0	0
44		20	15		-	2						0	0	0	1	4	10	18	23	21	13	6	2	0	0	0
		19	14		-	4							0	0	1	2	7	13	20	22	18	11	5	1	0	0	0
43		19	15		-	3								0	0	0	1	4	9	17	22	21	15	7	3	1	0	0	0
42		19	16		-	2									0	0	0	0	2	6	14	21	23	18	10	4	1	0	0	0
		18	15		-	4											0	0	0	2	6	13	21	23	18	10	4	1	0	0	0		0
41		18	16		-	3										0	0	0	0	0	2	5	12	19	23	19	12	5	2	0	0	0	0
40		18	17		-	2													0	0	0	1	3	9	17	23	22	15	7	2	0	0	0
		17	16		-	4														0	0	0	1	4	10	18	24	22	14	6	2	0	0	0
39		17	17		-	3															0	0	0	1	3	9	17	24	22	15	7	2	0	0	0
		18	18		-	1															0	0	0	1	4	10	18	22	21	13	7	2	1	0	0
38		17	18		-	2																0	0	0	0	2	6	14	22	24	18	9	3	1	0	0
37		16	18		-	3																		0	0	0	1	4	11	20	25	21	12	4	1	0
36		16	19		-	2																			0	0	0	1	3	10	20	27	23	12	3	0
35		15	19		-	3																					0	0	1	3	10	21	29	24	10	2
34		15	20		-	2																					0	0	0	1	4	12	25	32	21	6
33		14	20		-	3																							0	0	1	5	16	32	33	13
32		14	21		-	2																							0	0	0	2	8	25	40	24
31		13	21		-	3																									0	0	4	17	41	38
30		13	22		-	2																									0	0	1	10	37	52
29		12	22		-	3																										0	0	5	30	65
28		12	23		-	2																										0	0	2	22	76
27		11	23		-	3																											0	1	15	84
26		11	24		-	2																											0	0	11	89
25		10	24		-	3																												0	6	94
24		10	25		-	2																												0	4	96
23		9	25		-	3																												0	2	98
22		9	26		-	2																													1	99
21		8	26		-	3																													1	99
2	-20																																			100

Total:							1	2	2	2	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	3