Hugetest Icicles Playoff Chances 3

Beat Prairie Storm 3-2, playoff odds up 7.4 to 58%

6 points 3 2-0

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Saturday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Tier III	100.0*	Average seed
Icicles 3 Prairie Storm 2	+6.5		+0.8		-3.2		+0.7
Chevalier 2 Nightmares 6					*+0.1
Dealers 7 B. Capitals 4					-0.1
Juice 3 Steam 0					*+0.1

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Sunday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Tier III	100.0*	Average seed
Knights vs Tankers	+0.5+0.1+0.5-0.1-0.5-0.5				+0.1+0.1+0.0-0.0-0.0-0.1		+0.1+0.0+0.0-0.0-0.1-0.0
Canadiens vs ELe	-0.0-0.2-0.3-0.5-0.1+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Icicles finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Pres		Chance will finish regular season at seed															Tier
TP		W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Trophy		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	III		Count

64	-76						In		99.6	%	100															No		771	*
63		28	6		-	1	In		98.2		100	0														No		507	*
62		27	6		-	2	In		97.3		99	1														No		1,049	*
61		27	7		-	1	In		96.0		99	1														No		1,955	*
60		26	7		-	2	In		93.0		99	1														No		3,724	*
59		26	8		-	1	In		88.9		97	3														No		5,893	*
58		25	8		-	2	In		81.7		95	5	0													No		9,987	*
57		25	9		-	1	In		72.0		92	8	0													No		15,587	*
56		24	9		-	2	In		60.3		87	12	1	0												No		23,919	*
55		23	9		-	3	In		45.8		80	19	1	0												No		35,152	*
54		23	10		-	2	In		31.6		70	27	3	0	0											No		49,368	*
53		22	10		-	3	In		18.2		57	35	7	1	0											No		67,726	*
52		22	11		-	2	In		8.7		43	42	14	2	0	0										No		89,132	*
51		21	11		-	3	In		3.0		28	43	23	5	1	0										No		113,635	*
50		21	12		-	2	In		0.7		16	38	32	12	2	0	0									No		141,769	*
49		20	12		-	3	In		0.1		7	27	36	22	7	1	0	0								No		168,478	*
48		20	13		-	2	100.0	%	0.0		3	16	33	31	14	4	0	0	0							No		101,516
		19	12		-	4	100.0		0.0		2	13	29	32	18	6	1	0	0							No		95,539	*
47		19	13		-	3	100.0		No		0	5	19	32	27	13	3	0	0	0						No		219,996	*
46		19	14		-	2	99.8		No		0	1	9	24	32	23	9	2	0	0	0					No		123,170
		18	13		-	4	99.5		No		0	1	7	19	30	26	13	3	0	0		0				No		118,519	*
45		18	14		-	3	97.4		No		0	0	1	8	22	31	25	10	2	0	0					No		116,829
		19	15		-	1	97.5		No		0	0	2	10	24	30	22	9	2	0	0	0				No		137,346	*
44		18	15		-	2	88.4		No			0	0	2	10	23	30	22	9	2	0	0	0			No		262,523	*
43		17	15		-	3	64.3		No				0	0	2	9	22	31	24	10	2	0	0			No		118,247
		18	16		-	1	68.8		No				0	0	3	12	25	29	21	8	2	0	0			No		140,191	*
42		17	16		-	2	41.4		No					0	0	3	12	26	31	20	7	1	0	0		No		127,993
		16	15		-	4	32.9		No				0	0	0	2	9	21	30	24	11	2	0	0		No		123,745	*
41		16	16		-	3	14.2		No					0	0	0	3	11	24	31	21	8	2	0	0	No		233,893	*
40		16	17		-	2	3.6		No						0	0	0	3	12	26	31	20	7	1	0	0.0	%	214,615	*
39		15	17		-	3	0.6		No							0	0	1	4	14	29	31	17	4	0	0.5		188,216	*
38		15	18		-	2	0.1		No								0	0	1	5	18	32	29	12	2	3.8		162,315	*
37		14	18		-	3	0.0		No									0	0	1	8	25	36	24	6	15.7		134,288	*
36		14	19		-	2	Out		No										0	0	3	14	34	35	13	38.1		109,019	*
35		13	19		-	3	Out		No											0	1	7	26	43	24	64.0		84,196	*
34		13	20		-	2	Out		No											0	0	3	16	43	38	83.5		64,307	*
33		12	20		-	3	Out		No												0	1	9	38	52	93.8		46,818	*
32		12	21		-	2	Out		No												0	0	5	31	65	98.0		33,645	*
31		11	21		-	3	Out		No													0	2	22	76	99.5		23,127	*
30		11	22		-	2	Out		No													0	1	16	83	99.9		15,232	*
29		10	22		-	3	Out		No														0	10	90	Yes		9,692	*
28		10	23		-	2	Out		No													0	0	6	94	Yes		6,237	*
27		9	23		-	3	Out		No															4	96	Yes		3,728	*
26		9	24		-	2	Out		No														0	3	97	Yes		2,181	*
25		9	25		-	1	Out		No															1	99	Yes		1,213	*
24		8	25		-	2	Out		No															1	99	Yes		662	*
23		8	26		-	1	Out		No															2	98	Yes		308	*
22		7	26		-	2	Out		No															1	99	Yes		176	*
21		7	27		-	1	Out		No															1	99	Yes		95	*
6	-20						Out		No																100	Yes		371	*

Total:							58.0	%	2.7	%	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	6	6	6	5	5	8.5	%	3,748,600

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Saturday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Icicles 3 Prairie Storm 2	-1.3

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Sunday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Grinders vs Raju	-0.0+0.0-0.0+0.0+0.1-0.0
Knights vs Tankers	-0.0+0.0-0.0-0.0+0.1+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

65	-76						100
64		28	5		-	2	99	1
63		28	6		-	1	98	2
62		27	6		-	2	97	3
61		27	7		-	1	96	4
60		26	7		-	2	93	7	0
59		26	8		-	1	89	11	1
58		25	8		-	2	82	17	1	0
57		25	9		-	1	72	25	3	0
56		24	9		-	2	60	32	7	1	0
55		23	9		-	3	46	39	13	2	0	0
54		23	10		-	2	32	41	21	6	1	0	0
53		22	10		-	3	18	37	29	12	3	1	0
52		22	11		-	2	9	26	32	22	9	2	0	0	0
51		21	11		-	3	3	14	27	28	18	8	2	0	0	0
50		21	12		-	2	1	5	15	25	26	17	8	2	0	0	0
49		20	12		-	3	0	1	6	15	23	25	18	9	3	1	0	0	0
48		20	13		-	2	0	0	1	5	12	21	24	20	11	5	1	0	0	0	0
47		19	13		-	3		0	0	0	2	7	16	23	23	16	8	3	1	0	0
		20	14		-	1		0	0	1	4	10	18	23	21	14	7	3	1	0	0	0
46		19	14		-	2			0	0	0	2	6	14	22	24	18	10	4	1	0	0	0
		18	13		-	4				0	0	1	4	10	18	22	20	14	7	2	1	0	0	0
45		18	14		-	3					0	0	0	1	5	11	19	23	20	12	5	2	0	0	0
		19	15		-	1				0	0	0	1	4	11	19	24	21	12	6	2	0	0	0
44		18	15		-	2						0	0	0	1	3	8	16	22	21	16	8	3	1	0	0	0
43		17	15		-	3								0	0	0	0	2	7	14	21	23	17	10	4	1	0	0	0
		18	16		-	1							0	0	0	0	2	7	14	22	23	18	9	4	1	0	0	0
42		17	16		-	2										0	0	0	1	5	11	18	22	20	13	6	2	1	0	0	0
41		16	16		-	3											0	0	0	0	2	5	12	19	23	19	12	5	2	0	0	0
40		16	17		-	2													0	0	0	1	2	7	14	21	23	17	10	4	1	0	0	0
39		15	17		-	3															0	0	0	1	4	10	18	23	21	14	6	2	0	0	0	0
38		15	18		-	2																0	0	0	0	2	7	14	22	24	18	9	3	1	0	0
37		14	18		-	3																	0	0	0	0	1	5	11	21	25	21	11	4	1	0
36		14	19		-	2																			0	0	0	1	4	10	20	27	22	12	3	0
35		13	19		-	3																				0	0	0	1	3	10	21	29	23	10	2
34		13	20		-	2																						0	0	1	4	12	25	32	21	6
33		12	20		-	3																							0	0	1	5	17	32	32	13
32		12	21		-	2																								0	0	2	9	26	40	24
31		11	21		-	3																								0	0	1	4	17	41	38
30		11	22		-	2																										0	1	10	37	52
29		10	22		-	3																											0	5	31	64
28		10	23		-	2																											0	2	23	74
27		9	23		-	3																											0	1	15	84
26		9	24		-	2																												0	12	88
25		9	25		-	1																												0	7	93
24		8	25		-	2																													4	96
23		8	26		-	1																												0	3	96
22		7	26		-	2																													2	98
21		7	27		-	1																													2	98
6	-20																																			100

Total:							3	3	3	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	2	2	1