Masala Ice Bugs Playoff Chances 3

Did not play, playoff odds up 0.3 to 80.9%

6 points 3 0-0

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Saturday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy
Dealers 7 B. Capitals 4	*+0.1
Buffalo 6 Mafiosos 5			+0.1
Chevalier 2 Nightmares 6			+0.1
W. Capitals 6 Citadels 1			*-0.1

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Sunday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy
Knights vs Tankers	-0.3-0.4-0.5+0.3+0.1+0.3

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Ice Bugs finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Pres		Chance will finish regular season at seed															Tier
TP		W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Trophy		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	III		Count

67	-80						In		99.8	%	100															No		1,496	*
66		29	6		-	2	In		99.7		100	0														No		1,196	*
65		29	7		-	1	In		99.6		100	0														No		2,157	*
64		28	7		-	2	In		99.4		100	0														No		4,087	*
63		28	8		-	1	In		98.8		100	0														No		6,513	*
62		27	8		-	2	In		98.2		99	1	0													No		10,726	*
61		27	9		-	1	In		96.8		98	2	0													No		16,481	*
60		26	9		-	2	In		94.0		97	3	0													No		25,323	*
59		26	10		-	1	In		90.1		94	6	0													No		35,879	*
58		25	10		-	2	In		83.5		91	9	0	0												No		51,216	*
57		24	10		-	3	In		74.6		85	14	1	0												No		68,203	*
56		24	11		-	2	In		62.9		78	21	1	0	0											No		90,371	*
55		23	11		-	3	In		48.9		69	28	3	0	0											No		113,999	*
54		23	12		-	2	In		33.5		56	36	7	1	0	0										No		140,735	*
53		22	12		-	3	In		19.8		43	42	13	2	0											No		166,386	*
52		22	13		-	2	In		9.3		30	44	22	4	0	0										No		193,663	*
51		21	13		-	3	In		3.3		18	40	30	10	2	0	0									No		215,031	*
50		21	14		-	2	In		0.8		9	31	36	19	5	1	0	0								No		236,219	*
49		20	14		-	3	In		0.1		4	19	35	28	11	2	0	0								No		248,209	*
48		20	15		-	2	100.0	%	0.0		1	10	28	34	20	6	1	0	0							No		129,628
		19	14		-	4	100.0		0.0		1	8	24	33	23	8	2	0	0							No		126,228	*
47		19	15		-	3	99.9		No		0	2	13	29	32	18	5	1	0							No		115,459
		20	16		-	1	100.0		No		0	4	16	30	30	16	4	1	0							No		137,160	*
46		19	16		-	2	99.7		No		0	1	6	20	32	27	11	2	0	0	0					No		124,565
		18	15		-	4	99.4		No		0	1	5	16	30	29	15	4	1	0	0					No		121,990	*
45		18	16		-	3	97.3		No		0	0	1	7	21	32	25	11	2	0	0					No		230,216	*
44		18	17		-	2	89.2		No			0	0	2	9	24	31	23	9	2	0	0				No		212,231	*
43		17	17		-	3	70.2		No			0	0	0	3	11	25	31	21	7	1	0	0			No		188,368	*
42		17	18		-	2	43.6		No				0	0	0	3	13	27	30	19	6	1	0	0		No		164,010	*
41		16	18		-	3	19.5		No					0	0	1	4	15	28	30	17	5	1	0	0	No		136,447	*
40		16	19		-	2	6.2		No						0	0	1	5	17	31	28	14	3	0	0	0.0	%	112,134	*
39		15	19		-	3	1.3		No							0	0	1	7	21	32	26	11	2	0	0.5		88,314	*
38		15	20		-	2	0.2		No								0	0	2	10	26	33	21	6	1	4.4		68,738	*
37		14	20		-	3	0.0		No									0	0	4	15	32	32	15	2	17.2		51,202	*
36		14	21		-	2	0.0		No									0	0	1	7	23	36	26	6	40.7		37,437	*
35		13	21		-	3	Out		No										0	0	2	14	34	37	13	66.7		26,194	*
34		13	22		-	2	Out		No											0	1	7	27	42	24	85.2		18,306	*
33		12	22		-	3	Out		No											0	0	3	18	45	35	94.9		12,135	*
32		12	23		-	2	Out		No												0	1	10	40	49	98.6		7,875	*
31		11	23		-	3	Out		No													0	6	34	60	99.7		4,889	*
30		11	24		-	2	Out		No													0	3	26	71	99.7		3,023	*
29		10	24		-	3	Out		No														1	16	83	Yes		1,703	*
28		10	25		-	2	Out		No														1	12	87	99.9		1,021	*
27		9	25		-	3	Out		No															8	92	Yes		555	*
26		9	26		-	2	Out		No															4	96	Yes		300	*
25		9	27		-	1	Out		No															5	95	Yes		133	*
24		8	27		-	2	Out		No															4	96	Yes		73	*
23		8	28		-	1	Out		No																100	Yes		32	*
22		7	28		-	2	Out		No															5	95	Yes		21	*
6	-21						Out		No																100	Yes		323	*

Total:							80.9	%	11.0	%	17	14	12	10	9	8	7	6	5	4	3	3	2	1	1	2.5	%	3,748,600

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Saturday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Chevalier 2 Nightmares 6	-0.0
Raju 7 Rats 1	*-0.0
Buffalo 6 Mafiosos 5	-0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Sunday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Grinders vs Raju	-0.0+0.0+0.1+0.0+0.0+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

71	-80						100
70		31	4		-	2	98	2
69		31	5		-	1	100
68		30	5		-	2	99	1
67		30	6		-	1	100
66		29	6		-	2	100	0
65		29	7		-	1	100	0
64		28	7		-	2	99	1
63		28	8		-	1	99	1
62		27	8		-	2	98	2	0
61		27	9		-	1	97	3	0
60		26	9		-	2	94	6	0
59		26	10		-	1	90	9	0	0
58		25	10		-	2	83	15	1	0
57		24	10		-	3	75	23	3	0	0
56		24	11		-	2	63	31	6	1	0	0
55		23	11		-	3	49	38	11	2	0	0
54		23	12		-	2	33	41	20	5	1	0	0
53		22	12		-	3	20	37	28	11	3	0	0	0
52		22	13		-	2	9	27	32	21	8	2	0	0	0
51		21	13		-	3	3	15	27	28	17	7	2	0	0	0
50		21	14		-	2	1	6	16	26	26	16	7	2	0	0	0	0
49		20	14		-	3	0	1	6	15	24	25	17	8	3	1	0	0	0
48		20	15		-	2	0	0	1	5	13	21	24	19	11	4	1	0	0	0
47		19	15		-	3		0	0	1	3	9	17	23	22	15	7	2	1	0	0
46		19	16		-	2		0	0	0	0	2	5	12	20	23	19	11	5	2	0	0	0	0
45		18	16		-	3				0	0	0	1	3	7	15	21	22	17	10	4	1	0	0	0
44		18	17		-	2						0	0	0	1	3	9	16	21	22	15	8	3	1	0	0	0
43		17	17		-	3							0	0	0	0	1	4	10	17	22	21	14	7	3	1	0	0	0
42		17	18		-	2									0	0	0	0	1	5	11	18	22	20	13	6	2	1	0	0	0
41		16	18		-	3											0	0	0	0	2	5	12	19	23	19	12	5	2	0	0	0
40		16	19		-	2													0	0	0	1	2	7	14	21	23	17	10	4	1	0	0	0
39		15	19		-	3															0	0	0	1	4	9	17	23	22	15	7	2	0	0	0
38		15	20		-	2																	0	0	0	2	6	13	21	24	19	10	4	1	0	0
37		14	20		-	3																		0	0	0	1	4	11	20	25	21	12	4	1	0
36		14	21		-	2																			0	0	0	1	3	9	19	27	23	13	4	0
35		13	21		-	3																						0	1	3	10	20	29	24	12	2
34		13	22		-	2																							0	1	3	11	24	31	23	7
33		12	22		-	3																							0	0	1	4	15	31	34	15
32		12	23		-	2																								0	0	1	7	24	41	27
31		11	23		-	3																									0	0	3	16	40	42
30		11	24		-	2																										0	1	9	33	56
29		10	24		-	3																											0	4	27	69
28		10	25		-	2																										0	0	2	20	78
27		9	25		-	3																												0	14	86
26		9	26		-	2																													9	91
25		9	27		-	1																												1	6	93
24		8	27		-	2																													4	96
23		8	28		-	1																														100
22		7	28		-	2																													5	95
6	-21																																			100

Total:							11	9	7	6	6	5	5	5	4	4	4	3	3	3	3	3	2	2	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	0