Oahu Honu Playoff Chances 3

Did not play, playoff odds up 0.2 to 73.5%

6 points 3 1-0

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Saturday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Tier III	100.0*	Average seed
W. Capitals 6 Citadels 1	+0.2						+0.0
Dealers 7 B. Capitals 4	+0.2				-0.1
Buffalo 6 Mafiosos 5			+0.1
Fighting Hawks 7 Attack 1			*-0.1
Chevalier 2 Nightmares 6					*+0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Sunday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Tier III	100.0*	Average seed
Knights vs Tankers	-0.4-0.4-0.4+0.1*-0.0+0.4				+0.0+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1-0.1
Canadiens vs ELe			-0.1-0.1+0.0-0.0+0.1+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Honu finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Pres		Chance will finish regular season at seed															Tier
TP		W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Trophy		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	III		Count

67	-78						In		Yes		100															No		602	*
66		29	5		-	2	In		99.5	%	100	0														No		374	*
65		29	6		-	1	In		99.4		100	0														No		705	*
64		28	6		-	2	In		99.8		100	0														No		1,403	*
63		28	7		-	1	In		99.0		100	0														No		2,524	*
62		27	7		-	2	In		98.0		99	1														No		4,609	*
61		27	8		-	1	In		96.6		98	2	0													No		7,263	*
60		26	8		-	2	In		94.1		96	4	0													No		12,277	*
59		26	9		-	1	In		89.7		94	6	0	0												No		18,580	*
58		25	9		-	2	In		83.8		91	9	0													No		28,594	*
57		25	10		-	1	In		74.3		85	14	1	0												No		40,499	*
56		24	10		-	2	In		62.9		78	21	2	0												No		57,122	*
55		23	10		-	3	In		48.3		68	29	3	0	0											No		75,737	*
54		23	11		-	2	In		33.3		56	36	7	1	0											No		98,633	*
53		22	11		-	3	In		19.7		43	42	13	2	0	0										No		123,823	*
52		22	12		-	2	In		9.1		29	44	22	5	0	0										No		152,092	*
51		21	12		-	3	In		3.2		17	40	31	10	2	0	0									No		178,161	*
50		21	13		-	2	In		0.9		9	31	36	18	4	0	0									No		106,573
		20	12		-	4	In		0.7		8	29	36	21	6	1	0	0								No		98,897	*
49		20	13		-	3	In		0.1		3	17	34	30	13	3	0	0								No		101,872
		21	14		-	1	In		0.1		4	20	35	28	11	2	0	0								No		123,445	*
48		20	14		-	2	100.0	%	0.0		1	9	25	34	22	7	1	0	0	0						No		244,904	*
47		19	14		-	3	100.0		No		0	2	12	29	32	19	5	1	0							No		115,296
		20	15		-	1	99.9		No		0	3	15	30	30	16	5	1	0	0						No		138,713	*
46		19	15		-	2	99.5		No		0	1	5	18	31	28	13	3	0	0	0					No		259,302	*
45		18	15		-	3	97.3		No		0	0	1	7	21	32	25	11	2	0	0					No		254,013	*
44		18	16		-	2	89.2		No			0	0	2	9	23	32	23	9	2	0	0	0			No		244,248	*
43		17	16		-	3	70.6		No				0	0	3	11	25	31	21	7	1	0	0			No		225,250	*
42		17	17		-	2	48.1		No					0	0	4	15	29	30	16	5	1	0	0		No		104,585
		16	16		-	4	39.8		No					0	0	3	12	25	31	21	7	1	0	0		No		100,239	*
41		16	17		-	3	20.3		No					0	0	1	4	15	29	30	16	4	1	0	0	0.0	%	177,818	*
40		16	18		-	2	6.7		No						0	0	1	6	18	31	28	13	3	0	0	0.0		152,904	*
39		15	18		-	3	1.5		No							0	0	1	8	22	33	25	9	2	0	0.4		125,372	*
38		15	19		-	2	0.3		No							0	0	0	2	11	27	33	20	6	1	3.9		100,803	*
37		14	19		-	3	0.0		No									0	1	4	16	32	31	13	2	16.1		77,634	*
36		14	20		-	2	0.0		No									0	0	1	8	25	37	24	5	39.1		60,020	*
35		13	20		-	3	Out		No										0	0	3	15	35	35	12	64.8		43,354	*
34		13	21		-	2	Out		No											0	1	8	27	43	21	84.2		30,967	*
33		12	21		-	3	Out		No											0	0	3	19	44	33	94.6		21,344	*
32		12	22		-	2	Out		No												0	1	12	41	46	98.4		14,563	*
31		11	22		-	3	Out		No												0	0	7	35	58	99.6		9,268	*
30		11	23		-	2	Out		No													0	3	27	70	100.0		5,798	*
29		10	23		-	3	Out		No													0	1	20	79	Yes		3,553	*
28		10	24		-	2	Out		No														0	14	85	Yes		2,050	*
27		9	24		-	3	Out		No															10	90	Yes		1,190	*
26		9	25		-	2	Out		No														0	6	94	Yes		654	*
25		8	25		-	3	Out		No														0	5	95	Yes		338	*
24		8	26		-	2	Out		No															3	97	Yes		174	*
23		7	26		-	3	Out		No															1	99	Yes		91	*
6	-22						Out		No																100	Yes		370	*

Total:							73.5	%	6.7	%	11	11	10	10	9	8	8	7	6	5	5	4	3	2	1	4.1	%	3,748,600

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Saturday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Dealers 7 B. Capitals 4	-0.0
Buffalo 6 Mafiosos 5	-0.0
Raju 7 Rats 1	*-0.0

Sunday	None

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

67	-78						100
66		29	5		-	2	99	1
65		29	6		-	1	99	1
64		28	6		-	2	100	0
63		28	7		-	1	99	1
62		27	7		-	2	98	2
61		27	8		-	1	97	3	0
60		26	8		-	2	94	6	0
59		26	9		-	1	90	10	0	0
58		25	9		-	2	84	15	1	0
57		25	10		-	1	74	23	3	0	0
56		24	10		-	2	63	31	6	1	0	0
55		23	10		-	3	48	38	12	2	0	0
54		23	11		-	2	33	41	20	5	1	0	0
53		22	11		-	3	20	37	28	12	3	0	0	0
52		22	12		-	2	9	27	32	21	8	2	0	0	0
51		21	12		-	3	3	15	27	28	17	7	2	0	0	0
50		21	13		-	2	1	6	18	27	25	15	6	2	0	0	0	0
		20	12		-	4	1	5	15	24	26	18	8	3	1	0	0
49		20	13		-	3	0	1	4	13	22	26	20	10	4	1	0	0	0
		21	14		-	1	0	2	8	19	26	23	14	6	2	0	0	0
48		20	14		-	2	0	0	1	5	12	21	24	19	11	4	1	0	0	0
47		19	14		-	3		0	0	0	2	8	16	23	23	16	8	3	1	0	0
		20	15		-	1		0	0	1	4	10	18	23	21	13	7	2	1	0	0	0	0
46		19	15		-	2			0	0	0	2	5	12	20	23	19	11	5	2	0	0	0	0
45		18	15		-	3					0	0	0	1	5	12	20	23	20	12	5	2	0	0	0		0
		19	16		-	1				0	0	0	1	5	11	19	24	20	12	5	2	0	0	0
44		18	16		-	2						0	0	0	1	3	9	16	22	21	15	8	3	1	0	0	0
43		17	16		-	3							0	0	0	0	1	4	10	17	22	21	14	7	3	1	0	0	0
42		17	17		-	2										0	0	0	1	5	11	19	22	20	13	6	2	0	0	0
41		16	17		-	3											0	0	0	0	2	6	12	20	23	19	11	5	2	0	0	0	0
40		16	18		-	2													0	0	0	1	3	7	15	21	23	17	9	4	1	0	0	0
39		15	18		-	3															0	0	0	1	4	10	18	23	21	14	6	2	0	0	0
38		15	19		-	2																	0	0	1	2	6	14	22	24	18	9	3	1	0	0
37		14	19		-	3																		0	0	0	1	4	12	20	25	21	11	4	1	0
36		14	20		-	2																			0	0	0	1	4	10	20	26	23	12	3	0
35		13	20		-	3																				0	0	0	1	3	10	21	29	24	10	2
34		13	21		-	2																						0	0	1	3	12	24	31	22	6
33		12	21		-	3																							0	0	1	4	16	31	34	14
32		12	22		-	2																								0	0	1	8	25	40	26
31		11	22		-	3																									0	0	3	16	41	39
30		11	23		-	2																										0	1	9	34	56
29		10	23		-	3																											0	4	28	67
28		10	24		-	2																											0	2	21	77
27		9	24		-	3																												1	13	86
26		9	25		-	2																											0	0	9	90
25		8	25		-	3																											0	0	7	93
24		8	26		-	2																													5	95
23		7	26		-	3																													2	98
6	-22																																			100

Total:							7	6	6	5	5	5	5	5	4	4	4	4	4	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	2	2	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1