Colorado Zambronies Playoff Chances

Lost to Yellow Kings 1-7, playoff odds down 14.3 to 30.6%

27 points 12 12-3

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Wednesday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Tier II	100.0*	Average seed
Zambronies 1 Yellow Kings 7	-9.0		+0.1		-0.5
Hipsters 3 Juggernauts 4 (ot)	-1.3				-0.0
Crusaders 4 Fortress 5	-0.9				-0.1
Red Wings 5 Speculum 6	-0.3
Eskimos 8 Owls 2	+0.1

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Thursday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Tier II	100.0*	Average seed
Crusaders vs Speculum	+1.6-0.3-0.3-1.9-2.0-1.8				+0.1-0.0-0.0-0.1-0.1-0.1
Yellow Kings vs Fortress	+0.8+0.2*+0.3-1.1-1.0-1.0				+0.1+0.0+0.0-0.1-0.1-0.1
Night Hawks vs Hipsters	-0.5-0.7-0.8*-0.1-0.4+0.8
Creamless Oreos vs Mad Cats	-0.3-0.3-0.3-0.0*+0.1+0.5

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Zambronies finish out the regular season. Explain

									100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:						Chance in		Pres	Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP	W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Trophy	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	Tier II		Count

53	13	0		-	0	In		No		8	47	40	5	0										No		1,463
52	12	0		-	1	In		No		4	36	50	10	0										No		1,249
51	12	1		-	0	In		No		1	22	54	21	2	0									No		10,941	*
50	11	1		-	1	In		No		0	10	47	34	7	0	0								No		13,693	*
49	11	2		-	0	In		No		0	5	34	44	16	2	0								No		54,276
	10	1		-	2	In		No		0	3	29	45	20	3	0								No		8,400	*
48	10	2		-	1	100.0	%	No		0	1	18	43	31	7	1	0							No		66,520
	9	1		-	3	100.0		No			1	13	39	35	11	1	0							No		3,166	*
47	10	3		-	0	99.9		No			0	7	33	40	17	3	0	0						No		179,744
	9	2		-	2	99.7		No			0	5	26	41	23	4	0	0						No		37,833	*
46	9	3		-	1	98.5		No			0	2	15	37	33	11	1	0						No		199,907
	8	2		-	3	97.7		No			0	1	11	35	35	15	2	0						No		12,619	*
45	9	4		-	0	94.6		No				0	6	26	39	22	5	0	0					No		403,885
	8	3		-	2	91.2		No				0	4	20	39	28	8	1	0					No		99,270
	7	2		-	4	89.3		No				0	2	16	38	33	10	1						No		2,695	*
44	8	4		-	1	79.1		No				0	1	10	31	37	18	3	0	0				No		402,462
	7	3		-	3	73.4		No				0	1	7	27	39	22	5	0					No		29,711	*
43	8	5		-	0	60.9		No				0	0	4	19	38	30	9	1	0				No		650,762
	7	4		-	2	51.4		No					0	2	14	36	35	13	1	0				No		176,921
	6	3		-	4	45.3		No					0	1	12	32	38	16	2					No		5,651	*
42	7	5		-	1	30.7		No					0	0	6	25	40	25	4	0	0			No		573,916
	6	4		-	3	24.5		No						0	4	20	40	29	6	0				No		45,707	*
41	7	6		-	0	15.7		No					0	0	2	14	37	37	10	1	0			No		775,421
	6	5		-	2	10.5		No						0	1	9	33	41	14	1	0			No		220,214
	5	4		-	4	8.5		No						0	1	8	31	42	17	1	0			No		7,481	*
40	6	6		-	1	3.7		No						0	0	4	21	45	26	3	0	0		No		592,838
	5	5		-	3	2.6		No						0	0	2	17	44	31	5	0			No		49,018	*
39	6	7		-	0	1.1		No							0	1	12	41	38	8	0	0		No		686,517
	5	6		-	2	0.6		No						0	0	1	8	36	42	12	0	0		No		194,003
	4	5		-	4	0.6		No							0	1	7	33	44	15	1			No		6,604	*
38	5	7		-	1	0.1		No							0	0	3	25	48	22	2	0		No		449,261
	4	6		-	3	0.1		No							0	0	2	21	48	26	2	0		No		35,958	*
37	5	8		-	0	0.0		No							0	0	1	16	46	33	4	0		No		453,583
	4	7		-	2	0.0		No								0	1	11	42	39	6	0		0.0	%	121,186
	3	6		-	4	Out		No									0	9	39	43	8	0		No		3,831	*
36	4	8		-	1	0.0		No								0	0	5	34	48	13	1	0	0.0		247,003
	3	7		-	3	Out		No									0	4	30	51	15	1		No		17,643	*
35	4	9		-	0	0.0		No								0	0	2	23	51	22	2	0	0.0		221,035
	3	8		-	2	Out		No									0	1	17	50	28	3	0	0.0		54,644	*
34	3	9		-	1	Out		No									0	0	10	45	38	7	0	0.3		95,695
	2	8		-	3	Out		No										0	7	43	42	8	0	0.5		5,727	*
33	3	10		-	0	Out		No										0	5	35	46	13	0	1.3		77,821
	2	9		-	2	Out		No										0	3	30	49	18	0	2.6		15,615	*
32	2	10		-	1	Out		No										0	1	19	50	28	1	8.5		25,968	*
31	2	11		-	0	Out		No										0	0	10	46	40	3	18.3		18,132
	1	10		-	2	Out		No											0	7	43	47	4	26.4		2,720	*
30	1	11		-	1	Out		No											0	3	31	57	9	46.6		4,036	*
29	1	12		-	0	Out		No												1	21	61	17	65.3		2,809	*
28	0	12		-	1	Out		No												1	10	56	33	84.5		277
27	0	13		-	0	Out		No													3	49	48	94.8		769

Total:						30.6	%	No		0	0	1	3	5	9	13	17	20	18	10	3	1	0	0.2	%	7,366,600

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Wednesday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Zambronies 1 Yellow Kings 7	+0.9
Crusaders 4 Fortress 5	+0.1
Diggers 5 Camels 3	+0.0
Hipsters 3 Juggernauts 4 (ot)	+0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Thursday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Crusaders vs Speculum	-0.1+0.0*+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1
Narwhals vs Car Stealer	-0.1+0.0*-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1
Yellow Kings vs Fortress	-0.1-0.0*-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1
Gunners vs Oompa Loompa	+0.0+0.0+0.1+0.0+0.0-0.1
HC Stratovarius vs Stabbers	+0.1+0.1+0.1-0.0*-0.0-0.0
Night Hawks vs Hipsters	-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.1+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

						100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:						Chance will finish season at seed
TP	W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

53	13	0		-	0			0	2	13	32	33	17	3	0
52	12	0		-	1					4	19	33	31	11	2
51	12	1		-	0			0	0	1	8	25	35	24	7	1	0
50	11	1		-	1				0	0	2	9	26	34	21	7	1	0
49	11	2		-	0				0	0	0	3	15	31	31	15	4	1	0	0
	10	1		-	2						0	2	10	27	33	20	7	1	0
48	10	2		-	1						0	0	3	14	29	30	17	5	1	0	0
	9	1		-	3							0	2	10	24	32	22	8	2	0	0
47	10	3		-	0						0	0	1	5	18	30	27	14	4	1	0	0
	9	2		-	2							0	0	3	13	27	30	19	7	1	0	0
46	9	3		-	1							0	0	1	4	14	27	29	18	7	1	0	0
	8	2		-	3								0	0	2	10	24	29	22	10	2	0
45	9	4		-	0								0	0	1	5	16	28	28	16	5	1	0	0
	8	3		-	2									0	0	3	11	24	30	21	9	2	0	0
	7	2		-	4										0	2	9	20	31	23	12	3	0
44	8	4		-	1										0	0	3	11	24	29	21	9	2	0	0
	7	3		-	3										0	0	2	8	20	29	25	12	3	0	0
43	8	5		-	0										0	0	1	4	13	26	29	19	7	1	0	0	0
	7	4		-	2										0	0	0	2	9	22	30	24	11	3	0	0
	6	3		-	4											0	0	1	7	19	29	27	13	3	0	0
42	7	5		-	1											0	0	0	2	9	22	30	24	10	2	0	0	0
	6	4		-	3												0	0	1	7	18	29	27	14	3	0	0
41	7	6		-	0											0	0	0	0	3	12	26	31	20	7	1	0	0
	6	5		-	2													0	0	2	8	21	31	25	10	2	0	0
	5	4		-	4														0	1	6	19	30	27	13	3	0
40	6	6		-	1												0	0	0	0	2	9	23	32	23	9	1	0	0
	5	5		-	3														0	0	1	6	20	32	26	11	2	0	0
39	6	7		-	0														0	0	0	3	14	29	31	18	5	1	0	0
	5	6		-	2														0	0	0	2	9	25	33	22	7	1	0	0
	4	5		-	4															0	0	1	8	23	33	24	9	1	0
38	5	7		-	1															0	0	0	3	12	28	33	18	5	0	0	0
	4	6		-	3																	0	2	9	26	34	22	6	1	0
37	5	8		-	0																0	0	1	6	19	33	28	11	2	0	0
	4	7		-	2																	0	0	3	15	31	32	16	3	0	0	0
	3	6		-	4																		0	2	12	29	35	17	4	1
36	4	8		-	1																	0	0	1	5	20	34	28	10	2	0	0
	3	7		-	3																		0	0	4	17	34	30	12	2	0
35	4	9		-	0																		0	0	2	11	29	34	19	5	0	0
	3	8		-	2																		0	0	1	7	24	36	24	7	1	0	0
34	3	9		-	1																			0	0	2	12	31	34	17	4	0	0
	2	8		-	3																				0	1	10	28	34	21	5	0
33	3	10		-	0																				0	1	6	21	35	27	9	1	0
	2	9		-	2																				0	0	3	16	33	31	14	2	0
32	2	10		-	1																					0	1	6	23	36	25	8	1	0
31	2	11		-	0																					0	0	2	13	32	34	15	3	0
	1	10		-	2																						0	1	9	28	35	21	5	0
30	1	11		-	1																							0	3	15	35	33	12	1	0
29	1	12		-	0																								1	8	26	39	21	5	0
28	0	12		-	1																								0	2	13	29	40	14	1
27	0	13		-	0																									0	5	21	42	28	3

Total:								0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	2	3	4	6	7	9	10	11	11	11	9	7	4	2	1	0	0	0	0	0