Bratislava Red Wings Playoff Chances

Lost to Diggers 2-4, playoff odds down 8.5 to 39.2%

28 points 14 15-0

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Wednesday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Tier II	100.0*	Average seed
Red Wings 2 Diggers 4	-11.3				-0.5
Mad Cats 8 Raju 0	+1.5				+0.1
Hellhounds 6 Anchors 4	+1.3				+0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Thursday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Tier II	100.0*	Average seed
Red Wings vs Juggernauts	+7.2+6.9+6.9-5.1-5.3-13.5		-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.0+0.1		+0.3+0.3+0.3-0.2-0.2-0.6

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Red Wings finish out the regular season. Explain

									100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:						Chance in		Pres	Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP	W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Trophy	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	Tier II		Count

50	11	0		-	0	In		No		0	3	24	48	25	0									No		2,153
49	10	0		-	1	In		No			0	8	40	50	2	0								No		2,604
48	10	1		-	0	In		No		0	0	3	30	61	5	0								No		18,504
	9	0		-	2	In		No				2	24	66	7	0								No		1,789
47	9	1		-	1	100.0	%	No			0	1	14	69	16	1	0							No		26,086
	8	0		-	3	99.9		No				1	8	69	20	1	0							No		721
46	9	2		-	0	100.0		No				0	7	65	26	2	0							No		94,572
	8	1		-	2	100.0		No				0	5	63	29	2	0							No		16,244	*
45	8	2		-	1	99.8		No				0	2	47	43	8	0	0						No		117,940
	7	1		-	3	99.4		No					1	42	45	11	1							No		5,888	*
44	8	3		-	0	99.2		No				0	1	34	49	15	1	0						No		288,125
	7	2		-	2	98.8		No					0	31	50	18	1	0						No		63,794
	6	1		-	4	97.4		No					0	23	52	23	2	0						No		1,370	*
43	7	3		-	1	95.6		No					0	15	48	32	4	0	0					No		313,441
	6	2		-	3	91.9		No					0	11	42	38	8	0	0					No		20,337	*
42	7	4		-	0	88.6		No					0	7	38	43	11	1	0					No		575,672
	6	3		-	2	85.7		No					0	6	35	44	13	1	0					No		147,985
	5	2		-	4	78.8		No						4	27	48	19	2	0					No		4,009	*
41	6	4		-	1	68.9		No					0	2	20	47	27	4	0					No		543,159
	5	3		-	3	58.0		No						1	13	44	35	7	0					No		39,557
	4	2		-	5	55.8		No						1	12	43	34	10	0					No		541	*
40	6	5		-	0	49.7		No						0	10	40	39	11	1	0				No		794,208
	5	4		-	2	44.5		No						0	8	37	41	13	1	0				No		216,662
	4	3		-	4	32.0		No						0	4	28	44	20	3	0				No		6,633	*
39	5	5		-	1	23.4		No						0	2	21	45	27	5	0				No		635,886
	4	4		-	3	15.2		No						0	1	14	44	33	8	0				No		47,741
	3	3		-	5	8.1		No							0	8	43	38	11	0				No		666	*
38	5	6		-	0	10.7		No						0	1	10	38	39	12	0	0			No		777,194
	4	5		-	2	8.5		No						0	0	8	35	41	14	0	0			No		209,091
	3	4		-	4	4.2		No							0	4	26	46	23	1				No		6,196	*
37	4	6		-	1	2.4		No							0	2	21	46	30	1	0			No		511,686
	3	5		-	3	1.1		No							0	1	15	44	37	3	0			No		36,585	*
36	4	7		-	0	0.6		No							0	1	11	41	44	4	0			No		535,802
	3	6		-	2	0.4		No							0	0	8	37	48	6	0	0		No		133,831
	2	5		-	4	0.1		No								0	4	28	57	11	0			No		3,579	*
35	3	7		-	1	0.0		No								0	2	23	59	15	1	0		No		278,640
	2	6		-	3	0.0		No								0	1	17	58	22	1	0		No		17,276	*
34	3	8		-	0	0.0		No								0	1	13	59	25	2	0		No		256,545
	2	7		-	2	Out		No									0	9	53	33	4	0		No		54,141
	1	6		-	4	Out		No									0	5	47	40	8	0		No		1,087
33	2	8		-	1	Out		No									0	3	41	45	10	1	0	0.0	%	98,341
	1	7		-	3	Out		No									0	2	30	51	16	1	0	0.1		4,503	*
32	2	9		-	0	Out		No									0	1	29	49	19	2	0	0.2		80,692
	1	8		-	2	Out		No										1	20	50	26	4	0	0.4		12,751	*
31	1	9		-	1	Out		No										0	9	43	38	9	1	2.2		20,057
	0	8		-	3	Out		No											5	42	41	12	1	2.9		526
30	1	10		-	0	Out		No										0	5	32	43	18	2	7.5		15,072
	0	9		-	2	Out		No											2	25	48	22	3	10.0		1,310
29	0	10		-	1	Out		No											0	14	43	35	7	26.0		1,874
28	0	11		-	0	Out		No											0	7	34	45	14	47.4		1,914

Total:						39.2	%	No		0	0	0	0	6	13	20	22	19	15	4	1	0	0	0.0	%	7,044,980

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Wednesday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Red Wings 2 Diggers 4	+0.9
Mad Cats 8 Raju 0	-0.1
Hellhounds 6 Anchors 4	-0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Thursday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Red Wings vs Juggernauts	-0.6-0.5-0.5+0.4+0.4+1.1
Colts vs Seals	+0.1+0.0+0.1-0.0-0.0-0.1
Stabbers vs Puckakke	+0.1+0.1+0.1*+0.0-0.0-0.1
Friars vs Black Flag	+0.0+0.0+0.0-0.0-0.0-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

						100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:						Chance will finish season at seed
TP	W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

50	11	0		-	0					0	2	10	25	35	21	7	1
49	10	0		-	1						0	2	8	24	35	24	6	0
48	10	1		-	0						0	0	2	11	31	37	16	3	0	0
	9	0		-	2							0	1	7	25	38	22	6	0
47	9	1		-	1							0	0	2	13	34	34	15	3	0	0
	8	0		-	3								0	1	8	23	36	25	6	1
46	9	2		-	0								0	0	4	20	35	28	10	2	0	0	0
	8	1		-	2								0	0	2	15	33	32	15	3	0	0
45	8	2		-	1									0	0	5	20	34	27	11	2	0	0
	7	1		-	3										0	2	13	30	32	17	5	1	0
44	8	3		-	0									0	0	1	8	24	33	24	9	1	0	0
	7	2		-	2										0	1	5	19	33	28	12	2	0	0
	6	1		-	4											0	2	12	28	34	18	5	0
43	7	3		-	1										0	0	1	7	22	33	25	9	2	0	0
	6	2		-	3											0	0	4	15	30	31	15	4	0	0
42	7	4		-	0											0	0	2	9	25	34	23	7	1	0	0
	6	3		-	2											0	0	1	6	20	33	27	10	2	0	0
	5	2		-	4													0	3	14	29	33	16	4	0
41	6	4		-	1												0	0	1	8	24	34	23	7	1	0	0
	5	3		-	3													0	1	4	17	33	31	13	2	0	0
	4	2		-	5														0	2	13	31	33	18	4
40	6	5		-	0													0	0	2	11	28	35	19	5	0	0	0
	5	4		-	2													0	0	1	7	24	36	24	7	1	0
	4	3		-	4															0	4	17	33	31	12	2	0
39	5	5		-	1														0	0	2	11	29	35	18	4	0	0
	4	4		-	3															0	1	6	23	37	25	7	1	0
	3	3		-	5																	3	17	40	27	11	1	0
38	5	6		-	0														0	0	0	3	16	35	32	12	2	0	0
	4	5		-	2															0	0	2	12	32	35	16	3	0	0
	3	4		-	4																0	1	6	25	38	25	5	0
37	4	6		-	1															0	0	0	4	18	37	30	9	1	0	0
	3	5		-	3																	0	2	13	34	35	13	2	0
36	4	7		-	0																0	0	1	8	28	39	20	4	0	0
	3	6		-	2																0	0	0	5	23	40	25	6	0	0	0
	2	5		-	4																		0	2	15	38	32	12	1	0
35	3	7		-	1																	0	0	1	11	34	36	15	3	0	0
	2	6		-	3																		0	1	7	29	38	20	4	0	0
34	3	8		-	0																		0	0	4	22	39	27	7	1	0
	2	7		-	2																		0	0	2	17	36	32	11	1	0
	1	6		-	4																				1	10	32	36	16	4	0
33	2	8		-	1																			0	0	7	26	38	23	6	1	0
	1	7		-	3																				0	4	19	37	30	8	1	0
32	2	9		-	0																				0	2	14	34	33	14	2	0
	1	8		-	2																				0	1	10	29	37	19	4	0
31	1	9		-	1																				0	0	3	16	35	31	12	2	0	0
	0	8		-	3																						2	12	37	34	13	3
30	1	10		-	0																					0	1	7	26	36	23	7	1	0
	0	9		-	2																						0	4	20	37	29	9	1
29	0	10		-	1																							1	8	27	38	20	5	0	0
28	0	11		-	0																							0	3	15	34	33	12	2

Total:										0	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	3	4	6	9	11	13	14	13	11	7	3	1	1	0	0	0	0	0