Yellowknife Red Hot Oompa Loompa Playoff Chances 50/50

Did not play, playoff odds down 0.5 to 70.9%

18 points 9 6-0

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Wednesday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Tier II	100.0*	Average seed
Knights 1 Gunners 3	-0.6		+0.1
Rasputins 3 Black Flag 4	+0.3				+0.1		+0.0
Seals 3 Camels 2	-0.2				-0.1		-0.0
Car Stealer 11 Guardians 1	*-0.1
Pharaohs 10 Owls 1			-0.1		-0.1

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Thursday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Tier II	100.0*	Average seed
Oompa Loompa vs Stabbers	+6.3+6.3+6.1-1.9-1.5-7.1		+0.5+0.5+0.5-0.2-0.3-0.6		-0.7-0.7-0.6+0.1+0.0+0.8		+0.6+0.6+0.6-0.2-0.2-0.7
Colts vs Car Stealer	+0.5+0.0-0.5*-0.1-0.7-0.4				+0.1+0.0+0.0-0.2+0.1-0.1		+0.0-0.0*-0.0-0.0-0.1-0.0
Narwhals vs Friars	+0.3+0.0+0.0-0.6-0.4-0.2				-0.1-0.0+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1
Pharaohs vs Anchors			-0.1-0.0-0.1-0.1-0.0+0.1
Knights vs Yellow Kings			-0.1-0.1-0.1+0.0+0.0+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Oompa Loompa finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Pres		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Trophy		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	Tier II		Count

63	-68						In		99.4	%	100															No		167	*
62		22	3		-	0	In		98.1		99	1														No		107	*
61		21	3		-	1	In		88.9		100	0														No		244	*
60		20	3		-	2	In		83.8		97	3														No		579	*
59		20	4		-	1	In		72.9		95	5	0													No		1,183	*
58		19	4		-	2	In		63.6		90	9	0													No		2,359	*
57		19	5		-	1	In		51.3		85	14	1													No		4,070	*
56		18	5		-	2	In		35.6		74	24	1	0												No		7,569	*
55		18	6		-	1	In		22.1		63	33	4	0												No		11,741	*
54		17	6		-	2	In		11.8		50	40	9	1	0											No		18,799	*
53		17	7		-	1	In		4.9		36	45	16	2	0											No		26,390	*
52		16	7		-	2	In		1.5		23	45	26	5	0	0										No		38,829	*
51		16	8		-	1	In		0.3		12	38	35	12	2	0	0									No		49,853	*
50		15	8		-	2	In		0.0		5	26	39	24	6	1	0									No		35,977
		16	9		-	0	In		0.0		6	27	38	22	6	1	0									No		29,480	*
49		15	9		-	1	In		0.0		2	17	36	31	12	2	0	0								No		46,010
		14	8		-	3	In		No		1	11	31	35	18	4	0	0								No		30,468	*
48		14	9		-	2	100.0	%	No		0	6	22	36	26	9	1	0	0							No		51,213
		15	10		-	0	100.0		No		1	6	23	35	24	9	1	0	0							No		41,768	*
47		14	10		-	1	100.0		No		0	2	12	30	33	17	5	1	0							No		64,714	*
		13	9		-	3	99.9		No		0	1	8	24	35	23	7	1	0	0						No		35,653
46		13	10		-	2	99.5		No		0	0	3	14	31	32	17	4	0	0						No		79,513	*
		14	11		-	0	99.9		No		0	1	6	20	34	27	10	2	0							No		31,192
45		13	11		-	1	98.6		No			0	1	7	23	34	25	9	1	0						No		64,062
		12	10		-	3	96.3		No			0	0	3	15	31	31	15	3	0	0					No		45,920	*
44		12	11		-	2	90.7		No				0	1	8	24	34	24	8	1	0					No		61,684
		13	12		-	0	90.3		No				0	2	9	25	32	23	8	1	0					No		50,019	*
43		12	12		-	1	78.8		No				0	0	3	13	30	32	17	4	0	0				No		59,565
		11	11		-	3	65.7		No					0	1	8	23	34	25	8	1	0				No		42,476	*
42		11	12		-	2	43.9		No					0	0	2	12	29	33	18	4	0	0			No		69,598	*
		12	13		-	0	59.4		No					0	1	5	19	34	28	10	2	0				No		26,097
41		11	13		-	1	28.3		No						0	1	6	21	35	26	9	1	0			No		46,841
		10	12		-	3	16.6		No						0	0	3	14	31	33	16	3	0	0		No		33,060	*
40		10	13		-	2	8.5		No						0	0	1	7	23	35	25	8	1	0		No		68,674	*
39		10	14		-	1	1.9		No							0	0	2	11	29	34	19	4	0	0	0.0	%	52,714	*
38		9	14		-	2	0.4		No								0	0	4	17	34	30	12	2	0	0.3		42,025	*
37		9	15		-	1	0.0		No									0	1	7	25	37	24	6	1	2.2		29,669	*
36		8	15		-	2	0.0		No									0	0	2	14	33	34	14	2	8.5		21,316	*
35		8	16		-	1	Out		No										0	1	6	24	39	25	6	25.3		13,704	*
34		7	16		-	2	Out		No											0	2	14	36	36	12	48.0		9,155	*
33		7	17		-	1	Out		No											0	1	7	28	42	22	71.0		5,381	*
32		6	17		-	2	Out		No												0	3	19	43	34	86.2		3,331	*
31		6	18		-	1	Out		No													1	11	40	49	95.1		1,681	*
30		5	18		-	2	Out		No													1	6	34	59	98.4		964	*
29		5	19		-	1	Out		No													0	3	29	67	99.3		438	*
28		4	19		-	2	Out		No														1	18	81	99.5		219	*
27		4	20		-	1	Out		No														2	16	82	Yes		83	*
26		3	20		-	2	Out		No															11	89	Yes		37	*
25		3	21		-	1	Out		No															8	92	Yes		13
18	-24						Out		No																100	Yes		116	*

Total:							70.9	%	1.1	%	4	7	9	10	10	10	10	9	8	7	6	4	2	1	1	1.5	%	1,356,720

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Wednesday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Rasputins 3 Black Flag 4	-0.1
Lions 4 Red Wings 2	-0.0
Seals 3 Camels 2	+0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Thursday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Oompa Loompa vs Stabbers	-1.2-1.2-1.1+0.4+0.3+1.4
Colts vs Car Stealer	-0.0-0.0+0.0-0.0+0.1+0.0
Knights vs Yellow Kings	-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.1+0.0+0.0
Pharaohs vs Anchors	-0.0+0.0-0.0+0.0+0.1+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

68		25	0		-	0	99	1
63	-66						100
62		22	3		-	0	98	2
61		21	3		-	1	89	11
60		20	3		-	2	84	16	1
59		20	4		-	1	73	25	2	0
58		19	4		-	2	64	31	5	0
57		19	5		-	1	51	38	9	1	0
56		18	5		-	2	36	43	18	3	0
55		18	6		-	1	22	41	27	8	1	0
54		17	6		-	2	12	33	34	17	4	1	0
53		17	7		-	1	5	21	33	27	11	3	0	0
52		16	7		-	2	2	10	25	31	21	9	2	0	0	0
51		16	8		-	1	0	3	13	25	28	19	8	2	0	0	0
50		15	8		-	2	0	1	4	13	24	27	19	9	2	1	0	0
49		15	9		-	1	0	0	1	4	12	23	26	20	10	4	1	0	0	0
48		14	9		-	2		0	0	1	3	10	20	26	22	13	5	1	0	0
		15	10		-	0		0	0	1	4	11	20	24	21	12	5	1	0	0	0
47		14	10		-	1			0	0	1	3	9	19	25	22	13	6	1	0	0
		13	9		-	3				0	0	1	5	12	21	25	20	11	4	1	0	0
46		13	10		-	2				0	0	0	1	4	11	19	24	21	13	5	2	0	0	0	0
		14	11		-	0				0	0	0	2	8	16	24	23	16	7	2	1	0	0
45		13	11		-	1						0	0	1	4	10	19	24	21	13	5	2	0	0	0
		12	10		-	3					0		0	0	1	5	12	21	24	19	11	4	1	0	0
44		12	11		-	2							0	0	0	1	4	10	19	24	21	13	5	2	0	0	0
		13	12		-	0							0	0	1	3	8	17	24	23	16	7	2	0	0	0
43		12	12		-	1								0	0	0	1	3	10	19	25	22	14	6	2	0	0	0
		11	11		-	3									0	0	0	1	4	12	20	25	20	12	4	1	0	0
42		11	12		-	2											0	0	1	4	11	20	25	21	12	5	1	0	0
		12	13		-	0											0	0	1	5	12	19	24	20	12	5	1	0	0
41		11	13		-	1											0	0	0	1	3	9	19	25	22	13	5	1	0	0	0
		10	12		-	3													0	0	1	4	12	21	26	21	11	4	1	0
40		10	13		-	2													0	0	0	1	5	12	21	25	20	10	4	1	0	0
39		10	14		-	1															0	0	1	3	9	19	25	23	13	5	1	0	0
38		9	14		-	2																0	0	0	2	7	17	25	25	16	6	1	0	0	0
37		9	15		-	1																		0	0	1	6	15	25	26	17	7	2	0	0
36		8	15		-	2																			0	0	1	5	15	25	27	18	7	2	0	0
35		8	16		-	1																					0	1	5	15	25	28	18	6	1	0
34		7	16		-	2																						0	1	6	17	27	27	15	5	1
33		7	17		-	1																						0	0	2	7	20	31	25	12	2
32		6	17		-	2																							0	0	3	11	25	32	23	6
31		6	18		-	1																									1	4	15	33	34	14
30		5	18		-	2																										2	11	25	39	23
29		5	19		-	1																										1	2	21	43	33
28		4	19		-	2																										0		10	42	47
27		4	20		-	1																												7	30	63
26		3	20		-	2																												3	14	84
25		3	21		-	1																													8	92
24		3	22		-	0																													25	75
18		0	25		-	0																														100

Total:							1	2	3	4	4	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	4	4	4	3	3	2	2	1	1	1	0	0	0