Edmonton Oilers Playoff Chances 50/50

Did not play, playoff odds up 0.04 to 33.7%

8 points 4 6-0

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Tuesday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Tier II	100.0*	Average seed
Eskimos 4 Zambronies 0	*+0.1

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Wednesday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Tier II	100.0*	Average seed
Juggernauts vs Oilers	-7.1-2.3-2.2+5.8+5.9+6.6		-0.2-0.0-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.2		+5.3+1.0+1.0-4.6-4.6-4.9		-0.7-0.2-0.2+0.6+0.6+0.6
Rioters vs HC Stratovarius	-0.5-0.5-0.3-0.4-0.0+0.6						-0.1-0.1-0.0-0.0*+0.0+0.1
Night Hawks vs Eskimos	-0.3-0.6-0.6-0.0*+0.0+0.3
Academy vs Anchors	+0.3-0.0-0.1*-0.1-0.6-0.2						+0.0-0.0-0.0-0.0*-0.1-0.0
Camels vs Stabbers					+0.2+0.1+0.1+0.4-0.0-0.2
Black Flag vs Car Stealer					-0.2+0.0-0.1+0.6+0.2+0.2

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Oilers finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Pres		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Trophy		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	Tier II		Count

60	-68						In		97.5	%	100															No		197	*
59		25	4		-	1	In		86.9		96	4														No		84	*
58		25	5		-	0	In		83.4		94	6														No		247	*
57		24	5		-	1	In		70.3		89	11	0													No		421	*
56		23	5		-	2	In		62.6		86	14	0													No		927	*
55		23	6		-	1	In		47.0		76	22	2													No		1,552	*
54		22	6		-	2	In		34.5		66	30	4	0												No		3,100	*
53		22	7		-	1	In		20.8		51	40	8	0	0											No		4,612	*
52		21	7		-	2	In		11.2		39	43	15	2	0											No		8,286	*
51		21	8		-	1	In		4.2		25	44	25	6	0	0										No		12,117	*
50		20	8		-	2	In		1.1		14	38	33	12	2	0	0									No		19,020	*
49		20	9		-	1	In		0.2		6	26	37	23	7	1	0	0								No		25,214	*
48		19	9		-	2	In		0.0		2	14	32	32	15	4	0	0								No		37,080	*
47		19	10		-	1	100.0	%	No		0	5	20	33	27	11	2	0	0							No		45,241	*
46		18	10		-	2	99.8		No		0	1	9	24	33	23	8	2	0	0						No		61,455	*
45		18	11		-	1	98.7		No		0	0	2	10	26	32	21	7	1	0	0					No		71,066	*
44		17	11		-	2	92.8		No			0	0	2	12	27	32	20	6	1	0	0				No		46,632
		18	12		-	0	93.7		No		0	0	0	4	14	29	29	17	5	1	0					No		42,352	*
43		17	12		-	1	81.8		No				0	1	5	17	31	29	14	3	0	0				No		62,749
		16	11		-	3	67.6		No				0	0	2	9	24	32	23	8	1	0				No		32,516	*
42		16	12		-	2	45.3		No					0	0	3	13	28	31	18	5	1	0			No		72,183	*
		17	13		-	0	60.1		No				0	0	1	7	20	32	26	11	2	0	0			No		39,320
41		16	13		-	1	27.1		No					0	0	1	6	20	32	27	11	2	0	0		No		73,175
		15	12		-	3	14.8		No						0	0	3	12	28	32	19	5	1	0	0	No		38,928	*
40		15	13		-	2	6.1		No						0	0	1	5	19	32	28	12	2	0		No		64,163
		16	14		-	0	8.8		No						0	0	1	7	21	32	25	10	2	0	0	No		57,357	*
39		15	14		-	1	2.0		No							0	0	2	10	25	34	22	6	1	0	0.0	%	74,631
		14	13		-	3	0.7		No							0	0	1	5	18	33	29	12	2	0	0.2		40,329	*
38		14	14		-	2	0.2		No								0	0	2	10	27	35	21	5	0	0.9		62,165
		15	15		-	0	0.3		No								0	0	3	12	28	33	19	4	0	1.1		55,174	*
37		14	15		-	1	0.0		No									0	1	4	18	35	30	11	1	5.0		66,320
		13	14		-	3	0.0		No									0	0	2	12	30	36	17	3	11.2		35,583	*
36		13	15		-	2	0.0		No									0	0	1	6	23	39	26	5	25.8		50,823
		14	16		-	0	0.0		No									0	0	1	8	25	37	23	5	22.8		45,588	*
35		13	16		-	1	Out		No										0	0	2	14	35	37	12	51.4		78,708	*
34		12	16		-	2	Out		No											0	1	6	26	45	23	77.7		37,214
		13	17		-	0	Out		No											0	1	7	28	43	21	73.1		33,203	*
33		12	17		-	1	Out		No											0	0	2	16	45	36	91.1		53,654	*
32		11	17		-	2	Out		No												0	1	9	40	49	97.2		44,015	*
31		11	18		-	1	Out		No												0	0	4	32	63	99.4		31,219	*
30		10	18		-	2	Out		No													0	2	24	74	99.9		23,922	*
29		10	19		-	1	Out		No													0	1	16	83	100.0		16,144	*
28		9	19		-	2	Out		No														0	10	90	Yes		11,528	*
27		9	20		-	1	Out		No														0	7	93	Yes		6,945	*
26		8	20		-	2	Out		No														0	4	96	Yes		4,650	*
25		8	21		-	1	Out		No														0	2	98	Yes		2,618	*
24		7	21		-	2	Out		No															1	99	Yes		1,658	*
23		7	22		-	1	Out		No															1	99	Yes		814	*
22		7	23		-	0	Out		No															1	99	Yes		477	*
8	-21						Out		No																100	Yes		544	*

Total:							33.7	%	0.4	%	1	2	3	4	5	5	6	7	8	9	9	10	10	10	9	19.9	%	1,597,920

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Tuesday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Stabbers 4 Camels 3 (ot)	*+0.1
Hogs 3 Muskies 1	*-0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Wednesday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Juggernauts vs Oilers	+1.4+0.4+0.3-1.2-1.2-1.3
Camels vs Stabbers	+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.0-0.0-0.0
Academy vs Anchors	-0.0+0.0+0.1+0.0+0.1+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

61	-68						100
60		26	4		-	0	89	11
59		25	4		-	1	87	13
58		25	5		-	0	83	15	1
57		24	5		-	1	70	27	3		0
56		23	5		-	2	63	32	6	0
55		23	6		-	1	47	40	11	2	0
54		22	6		-	2	35	42	18	4	0	0
53		22	7		-	1	21	40	28	9	2	0
52		21	7		-	2	11	31	33	18	5	1	0	0
51		21	8		-	1	4	19	31	27	14	4	1	0
50		20	8		-	2	1	8	22	30	23	12	4	1	0	0
49		20	9		-	1	0	2	9	21	27	23	12	4	1	0	0	0
48		19	9		-	2	0	0	2	9	19	26	22	13	5	2	0	0	0
47		19	10		-	1		0	0	2	7	16	24	24	17	8	3	1	0	0
46		18	10		-	2			0	0	1	5	12	20	24	20	12	5	1	0	0	0	0
45		18	11		-	1				0	0	0	2	7	15	22	23	17	9	4	1	0	0
44		17	11		-	2					0	0	0	1	3	9	17	23	22	15	7	3	1	0	0	0	0
43		17	12		-	1							0	0	0	1	4	10	18	23	21	13	6	2	0	0	0
42		16	12		-	2										0	0	1	3	9	17	23	22	14	7	2	1	0	0
		17	13		-	0								0	0	0	1	3	8	16	23	23	16	8	3	1	0	0
41		16	13		-	1											0	0	1	3	7	16	23	23	16	8	3	1	0	0
		15	12		-	3												0	0	1	3	8	16	23	23	16	8	3	1	0	0	0
40		15	13		-	2													0	0	0	2	5	13	20	24	19	11	4	1	0	0
		16	14		-	0												0	0	0	1	4	11	19	24	21	13	5	1	0	0	0
39		15	14		-	1															0	0	1	4	11	20	24	21	12	5	1	0	0	0
		14	13		-	3																0	0	2	5	13	21	24	19	11	4	1	0	0
38		14	14		-	2																0	0	0	1	4	11	19	25	21	13	5	1	0	0
		15	15		-	0															0	0	0	1	3	8	17	24	23	15	7	2	0	0	0
37		14	15		-	1																		0	0	1	4	11	20	25	22	12	4	1	0	0
		13	14		-	3																		0	0	0	1	6	14	24	25	19	9	2	0	0
36		13	15		-	2																				0	0	1	6	14	24	26	18	8	2	0
		14	16		-	0																			0	0	1	3	10	20	26	23	12	4	1	0
35		13	16		-	1																				0	0	0	2	6	15	26	27	17	6	1
34		12	16		-	2																						0	0	1	6	17	28	29	16	3
33		12	17		-	1																							0	0	2	7	20	33	28	10
32		11	17		-	2																								0	0	2	11	28	38	20
31		11	18		-	1																								0	0	1	4	19	41	35
30		10	18		-	2																									0	0	2	11	37	50
29		10	19		-	1																									0	0	0	5	30	64
28		9	19		-	2																											0	2	21	77
27		9	20		-	1																											0	1	14	85
26		8	20		-	2																												0	9	91
25		8	21		-	1																												0	5	95
24		7	21		-	2																												0	2	97
23		7	22		-	1																													2	98
22		7	23		-	0																													2	98
21		6	23		-	1																														100
20		6	24		-	0																													1	99
8	-19																																			100

Total:							0	1	1	1	2	2	2	2	2	3	3	3	3	3	3	4	4	4	4	4	4	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5