Edmonton Oilers Playoff Chances

Did not play, playoff odds up 0.3 to 23.6%

8 points 4 6-0

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Tuesday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Tier II	100.0*	Average seed
Red Wings 3 Creamless Oreos 6			+0.3		-0.0
Hogs 3 Muskies 1			+0.2
Stabbers 4 Camels 3 (ot)			*+0.1
Narwhals 5 Guardians 4			*+0.1

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Wednesday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Tier II	100.0*	Average seed
Juggernauts vs Oilers	-5.8-2.0-1.7+5.4+5.3+5.9		+4.9+0.8+0.8-4.9-4.7-5.0		-0.5-0.2-0.1+0.5+0.5+0.6
Academy vs Anchors	+0.6+0.3+0.1*-0.3-0.6-0.4		+0.3+0.5+0.8*+0.1+0.2-0.3		+0.0-0.0-0.0*-0.0-0.1-0.0
Rioters vs HC Stratovarius	-0.4-0.3-0.5+0.2*+0.2+0.5		-0.2+0.2+0.3+0.4+0.5+0.2		-0.0-0.0-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.1
Night Hawks vs Eskimos	-0.3-0.4-0.5-0.1+0.1+0.3
Camels vs Stabbers			+0.2+0.3+0.1-0.1+0.0-0.1
Black Flag vs Car Stealer			-0.4+0.0-0.2+0.5+0.4+0.4
Panthers vs Oompa Loompa			-0.2-0.0+0.1*+0.0+0.3+0.2
Diggers vs Seals			-0.2+0.1+0.0+0.1+0.3+0.2

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Oilers finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Pres		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Trophy		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	Tier II		Count

62	-68						In		Yes		100															No		403	*
61		26	3		-	1	In		73.3	%	93	7														No		15	*
60		26	4		-	0	In		88.9		97	3														No		36	*
59		25	4		-	1	In		71.9		84	16														No		96	*
58		24	4		-	2	In		55.7		83	17	0													No		253	*
57		24	5		-	1	In		47.3		72	26	2													No		505	*
56		23	5		-	2	In		34.4		60	34	6	0												No		1,115	*
55		23	6		-	1	In		19.6		50	40	9	1	0											No		2,032	*
54		22	6		-	2	In		11.1		38	46	15	1												No		4,171	*
53		22	7		-	1	In		4.3		24	47	25	4	0	0										No		6,796	*
52		21	7		-	2	In		1.8		15	42	33	9	1	0										No		12,407	*
51		21	8		-	1	In		0.5		7	31	40	18	3	0										No		19,011	*
50		20	8		-	2	In		0.1		3	20	39	28	8	1	0	0								No		31,693	*
49		20	9		-	1	In		0.0		1	9	30	36	19	4	0	0								No		45,138	*
48		19	9		-	2	100.0	%	No		0	4	19	35	29	11	2	0	0	0						No		69,307	*
47		19	10		-	1	99.9		No		0	1	7	25	35	23	8	1	0	0						No		91,377	*
46		18	10		-	2	99.3		No		0	0	3	13	29	32	18	5	1	0						No		128,347	*
45		18	11		-	1	96.2		No			0	0	4	17	31	29	14	3	0	0					No		158,104	*
44		17	11		-	2	87.2		No			0	0	1	7	21	33	26	10	2	0	0				No		206,982	*
43		17	12		-	1	68.3		No				0	0	2	9	24	33	23	8	1	0	0			No		236,732	*
42		16	12		-	2	43.8		No				0	0	0	3	12	28	32	18	5	1	0			No		286,905	*
41		16	13		-	1	24.6		No					0	0	1	5	19	33	29	12	2	0			No		191,792
		15	12		-	3	14.8		No						0	0	2	12	29	33	18	4	0	0		No		114,901	*
40		15	13		-	2	6.8		No						0	0	1	6	21	35	27	9	1	0		No		186,045
		16	14		-	0	9.1		No						0	0	1	8	23	34	25	8	1	0		No		160,774	*
39		15	14		-	1	2.6		No						0	0	0	2	12	30	34	17	3	0		0.0	%	216,466
		14	13		-	3	1.1		No							0	0	1	7	25	37	24	6	0	0	0.0		130,198	*
38		14	14		-	2	0.3		No							0	0	0	3	16	36	32	11	1	0	0.1		197,083
		15	15		-	0	0.5		No								0	0	4	18	35	30	10	1	0	0.1		168,880	*
37		14	15		-	1	0.1		No								0	0	1	9	29	39	19	3	0	0.5		212,690
		13	14		-	3	0.0		No									0	1	6	23	40	26	5	0	1.6		127,751	*
36		13	15		-	2	0.0		No									0	0	3	16	39	34	9	0	5.2		181,160
		14	16		-	0	0.0		No									0	0	3	17	38	32	8	0	5.1		155,211	*
35		13	16		-	1	0.0		No									0	0	1	8	30	42	17	2	17.3		291,350	*
34		12	16		-	2	Out		No										0	0	3	20	44	28	4	38.1		268,934	*
33		12	17		-	1	Out		No										0	0	1	11	39	39	9	62.0		216,144	*
32		11	17		-	2	Out		No											0	0	5	31	47	17	80.9		186,515	*
31		11	18		-	1	Out		No												0	2	21	50	27	92.4		139,517	*
30		10	18		-	2	Out		No												0	1	13	48	38	97.4		112,443	*
29		10	19		-	1	Out		No													0	7	42	51	99.3		77,110	*
28		9	19		-	2	Out		No												0	0	4	34	62	99.8		58,061	*
27		9	20		-	1	Out		No													0	2	25	73	100.0		37,232	*
26		8	20		-	2	Out		No														1	18	81	100.0		25,703	*
25		8	21		-	1	Out		No														0	12	88	Yes		15,136	*
24		7	21		-	2	Out		No														0	7	93	Yes		9,696	*
23		7	22		-	1	Out		No														0	5	95	Yes		5,111	*
22		6	22		-	2	Out		No															3	97	Yes		3,129	*
21		6	23		-	1	Out		No															1	99	Yes		1,440	*
20		5	23		-	2	Out		No															1	99	Yes		826	*
8	-19						Out		No																100	Yes		1,037	*

Total:							23.6	%	0.1	%	0	1	1	2	3	4	5	7	8	10	12	14	14	11	6	19.4	%	4,793,760

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Tuesday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Narwhals 5 Guardians 4	*+0.0
Red Wings 3 Creamless Oreos 6	+0.0
Hogs 3 Muskies 1	-0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Wednesday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Juggernauts vs Oilers	+1.1+0.3+0.3-1.1-1.1-1.2
Camels vs Stabbers	+0.0+0.1+0.0-0.0*+0.0-0.0
Panthers vs Oompa Loompa	-0.0+0.0+0.0*-0.0+0.1+0.0
Academy vs Anchors	-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.1+0.0
Black Flag vs Car Stealer	-0.0+0.0+0.0*+0.1+0.0+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

62	-68						100
61		26	3		-	1	73	20	7
60		26	4		-	0	89	11
59		25	4		-	1	72	25	3
58		24	4		-	2	56	39	5
57		24	5		-	1	47	40	11	2	0
56		23	5		-	2	34	41	20	4	0	0
55		23	6		-	1	20	40	28	10	2	0
54		22	6		-	2	11	34	34	16	4	0	0
53		22	7		-	1	4	22	34	27	10	2	0
52		21	7		-	2	2	11	27	32	20	7	2	0	0
51		21	8		-	1	0	4	16	28	28	17	6	1	0	0
50		20	8		-	2	0	1	6	18	28	26	15	5	1	0	0
49		20	9		-	1	0	0	1	7	18	26	25	15	6	1	0	0	0
48		19	9		-	2		0	0	2	7	16	25	25	16	7	2	0	0	0
47		19	10		-	1			0	0	1	5	14	23	25	18	9	3	1	0	0	0
46		18	10		-	2				0	0	1	4	11	20	24	21	12	5	2	0	0	0
45		18	11		-	1					0	0	0	2	7	15	23	23	17	8	3	1	0	0	0
44		17	11		-	2						0	0	0	1	4	11	19	24	20	12	5	2	0	0	0	0
43		17	12		-	1								0	0	0	2	7	15	22	23	17	9	3	1	0	0	0
42		16	12		-	2								0	0	0	0	1	4	10	18	23	21	13	6	2	0	0	0	0
41		16	13		-	1										0	0	0	1	3	8	17	24	23	16	7	2	0	0	0	0
		15	12		-	3											0	0	0	1	3	10	19	24	22	14	6	2	0	0	0
40		15	13		-	2												0	0	0	1	4	10	19	24	22	13	6	2	0	0	0
39		15	14		-	1													0	0	0	1	3	8	17	25	23	15	6	2	0	0	0
		14	13		-	3														0	0	0	1	4	11	20	26	21	12	4	1	0	0
38		14	14		-	2															0	0	0	1	3	10	20	26	22	12	4	1	0	0
		15	15		-	0															0	0	0	2	7	16	24	25	16	7	2	0	0
37		14	15		-	1															0	0	0	0	1	4	12	22	27	21	10	3	1	0	0
		13	14		-	3																	0	0	0	2	7	16	25	26	17	6	1	0	0
36		13	15		-	2																	0	0	0	0	3	9	19	27	24	13	4	1	0	0
35		13	16		-	1																			0	0	0	2	8	19	28	25	13	4	1	0
34		12	16		-	2																				0	0	0	2	8	20	30	25	11	3	0
		13	17		-	0																				0	0	0	3	10	21	29	24	11	3	0
33		12	17		-	1																					0	0	0	3	11	24	31	22	8	1
32		11	17		-	2																						0	0	1	4	14	29	32	17	3
31		11	18		-	1																							0	0	1	6	21	35	28	8
30		10	18		-	2																								0	0	2	12	31	38	17
29		10	19		-	1																									0	1	5	22	42	29
28		9	19		-	2																								0	0	0	2	14	41	42
27		9	20		-	1																									0	0	1	8	35	57
26		8	20		-	2																										0	0	3	27	70
25		8	21		-	1																											0	2	19	80
24		7	21		-	2																												1	13	87
23		7	22		-	1																											0	0	8	92
22		6	22		-	2																												0	5	95
21		6	23		-	1																													2	98
20		5	23		-	2																													1	99
19		5	24		-	1																													1	99
8	-18																																			100

Total:							0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	2	3	3	3	4	4	4	5	5	5	6	6	6	6	6	6	5	5	3